June 19, 2020 / 7:30 PM / a month ago

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures rise on forecasts for warmer weather, higher demand

 (Adds latest prices)
    June 19 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed almost 2% on Friday on forecasts for warmer
weather and higher air conditioning demand over the next two weeks.
    Front-month gas futures rose 3.1 cents, or 1.9%, to settle at $1.669 per million British
thermal units. For the week, however, the front-month lost about 4% after output rebounded earlier this
week, putting the contract down for a third week in a row for the first time since January.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged just 87.6 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) in June, down from a 16-month low of 88.2 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd
in November. On a daily basis, however, output hit a one-month high of 88.3 bcfd this week, up from a
19-month low of 85.7 bcfd in late May.
    With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from 77.8
bcfd this week to 85.8 bcfd next week and 87.1 bcfd in two weeks. That is higher than Refinitiv's
outlooks from Monday-Thursday.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged just 4.0 bcfd (41%
utilization) in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in
February. Utilization was about 90% in calendar 2019.
    U.S. pipeline exports, meanwhile, are rising as North American consumers crank up their air
conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.3 bcfd in June, up from a seven-month low of
2.2 bcfd in May but still well below the all-time monthly high of 3.5 bcfd in December. Pipeline exports
to Mexico averaged 5.3 bcfd this month, up from 4.8 bcfd in May but shy of the record 5.6 bcfd in March.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jun 19         Jun 12       Jun 19     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  Jun 19    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +97            +85          +103        +73      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              1            8           10           8
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             220            214          162         175          172
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             221            215          170         185          180
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.3           88.0         87.9        90.3         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.0            5.8          6.3         7.1          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.3           93.8         94.2        97.4         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.2          2.3         2.4          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.5            5.2          5.2         5.1          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.0            3.8          3.8         5.5          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.5          4.4         4.5          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.8            3.8          3.5         3.8          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          34.5           30.5         38.8        32.2         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.4         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.3         4.3          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9            1.8          2.0         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    70.4           66.5         74.5        68.1         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         82.3           77.8         85.8        81.1         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.51           1.55                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.41           1.43                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.24           2.28                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.31           1.33                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.48           1.45                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.61           1.50                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.68           1.73                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.31           1.26                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.75          20.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                23.00          21.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             18.25          19.75                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   14.06          11.88                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              21.25          16.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   21.50          22.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Grant McCool)
  
 
 
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below