(Adds comment, closing prices)
Aug 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures settled slightly lower after hitting their highest since
December on Wednesday as liquefied natural gas exports climbed while the weather was expected to remain
hotter-than-normal through late August.
Front-month gas futures settled down 0.2 cents, or 0.1%, at $2.191 per million British
thermal units (mmBtu), having risen to their highest since Dec. 27 at 2.261 mmBtu.
"The global demand is picking up for LNG and the forecasts that temperatures will turn above normal
is making the market look tighter, but in the short term, the reason that we're pulling back is because
of the power outages along the east coast," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in
Chicago.
Hurricane Isaias, which hit North Carolina Monday night, briefly broke the heat wave that has
blanketed much of the country since late June. The storm knocked out power to more than three million
homes and businesses from North Carolina to Maine. Its remnants are over Quebec.
The front-month was still in overbought territory with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70 for a
third day in a row for the first time since November 2019.
Traders noted any lingering concerns that prices would fall as U.S. stockpiles fill to maximum
levels have gone away now that power generators have burned record amounts of gas to keep air
conditioners humming since late June and as LNG companies boost their exports again. Analysts, however,
still expect inventories to reach a record 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October.
But with hot weather expected to return, data provider Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including
exports, will rise from an average of 88.6 bcfd this week to 91.0 bcfd next week. That is a little lower
than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday as higher gas prices cause power generators to burn more coal
instead of gas.
U.S. LNG exports are on track to rise for the first time in six months as the amount of pipeline gas
flowing to the plants rose to 4.0 bcfd in August from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in July when buyers
canceled dozens of cargoes.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Jul Jul 24 Jul 31 average
31(Forecast) (Actual) Jul 31
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +30 +26 +58 +33 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 3 3 1 3 3
U.S. GFS CDDs 207 213 218 200 192
U.S. GFS TDDs 210 216 219 203 196
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 88.5 88.1 88.3 92.3 79.1
U.S. Imports from Canada 6.8 6.9 7.0 8.1 8.0
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 95.3 95.0 95.3 100.4 87.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.3 2.1 2.1 3.0 2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.8 5.8 4.8 4.4
U.S. LNG Exports 3.2 3.9 4.8 4.3 2.0
U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5
U.S. Residential 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3
U.S. Power Plant 44.7 40.7 42.2 43.6 36.6
U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.4 20.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 80.7 76.7 78.3 79.3 71.4
Total U.S. Demand 91.9 88.6 91.0 91.4 80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 2.07 1.95
Transco Z6 New York 1.79 1.67
PG&E Citygate 2.69 2.60
Dominion South 1.56 1.43
Chicago Citygate 1.92 1.78
Algonquin Citygate 1.81 1.50
SoCal Citygate 2.15 2.20
Waha Hub 1.51 0.80 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 27.75 30.75
PJM West 22.50 29.75
Ercot North 22.00 27.00
Mid C 21.13 28.00
Palo Verde 25.50 27.75
SP-15 25.50 28.00
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino and Sumita Layek; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Marguerita Choy)
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