June 4, 2020 / 3:10 PM / a month ago

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas flat as rising LNG exports offset small output increase

 (Adds latest prices)
    June 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures were little changed on Thursday as rising liquefied
natural gas (LNG) exports offset a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and an increase in output.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities injected 102 billion cubic feet
(bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended May 29.
    That was less than the 110-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an
increase of 118 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 103 bcf
for the period.
    The increase boosts stockpiles to 2.714 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 18.4% above the five-year average
of 2.292 tcf for this time of year.
    Front-month gas futures rose 0.1 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $1.822 per million British
thermal units.
    Refinitiv said gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to an average of 88.5 billion cubic
feet per day (bcfd) so far in June from a one-year low of 89.3 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high
of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    Traders, however, noted daily output was up from a one-year low of 87.3 bcfd hit a couple of weeks
ago.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants was on track to reach 5.2 bcfd on
Thursday after dropping to a 13-month low of 3.7 bcfd on Monday. That compares with an eight-month low
of 6.4 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
    Analysts said U.S. LNG exports dropped in recent months after buyers canceled cargoes due to the
collapse in European prices.
    But after collapsing to record lows last week, major European gas benchmarks
 have soared around 50% this week. That drove forwards for August and September
 at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) above the U.S. Henry Hub for the
first time since late April.
        
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          May 29        May 22        May 29     average    
                                         (Actual)       (Actual)                  May 29    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +102           +109         +118        +103     
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              12             10           17          22           20
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             156            164          127         140          134
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             168            174          144         162          154
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.3           88.6         88.5        89.9         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.1            6.2          6.6         8.0          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.3           94.9         95.1        97.9         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            2.2          2.3         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    4.8            5.1          4.9         4.8          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.0            5.2          5.2         5.2          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6            4.6          4.5         4.6          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0            4.0          3.8         4.1          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          29.5           32.6         33.7        32.0         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.2           21.3         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.7            1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    65.6           68.9         69.7        68.4         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         78.5           81.4         82.1        80.6         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.84           1.58                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.58           1.52                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.65           2.59                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.46           1.44                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.76           1.64                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.73           1.59                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.53           2.44                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.63           1.49                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             25.75          22.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                29.00          25.50                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             31.00          28.00                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   17.79          13.39                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              44.88          48.38                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   33.00          40.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Marguerita Choy)
  
 
 
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