June 18, 2020 / 2:48 PM / 16 days ago

UPDATE 2-U.S. natgas futures flat as rising demand offset falling LNG exports

 (Adds closing prices)
    June 18 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held steady on Thursday as a continued drop in
liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports offset a forecast increase in demand next week.
    The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), meanwhile, said utilities injected 85 billion
cubic feet (bcf) into storage during the week ended June 12.
    That matched analysts' estimate in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 111 bcf during
the same week last year and a five-year (2015-19) average build of 87 bcf for the period.

    The increase boosted stockpiles to 2.892 trillion cubic feet (tcf), 16.9% above the five-year
average of 2.473 tcf for this time of year.
    Front-month gas futures settled unchanged at $1.638 per million British thermal units.
    Looking ahead, futures for the balance of 2020 and calendar 2021 were trading
about 29% and 62% over the front month, respectively, on hopes the economy and energy demand will snap
back as state governments lift coronavirus-linked lockdowns.
    Refinitiv said production in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged just 87.6 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) in June, down from a 16-month low of 88.2 bcfd in May and an all-time monthly high of 95.4 bcfd
in November. On a daily basis, however, output was up to a one-month high of 88.3 bcfd this week from a
19-month low of 85.7 bcfd in late May.
    With warmer weather coming, Refinitiv forecast U.S. demand, including exports, would rise from 77.8
bcfd this week to 85.1 bcfd next week. That was similar to Refinitiv's outlooks on Monday-Wednesday.
    The amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged just 4.0 bcfd (41%
utilization) in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a record high of 8.7 bcfd in
February. Utilization was about 90% in calendar 2019.
           
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          Jun 12         Jun 5        Jun 12     average    
                                         (Actual)       (Actual)                  Jun 12    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +85            +93          +111        +87      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              1              2            8           10           8
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             214            208          162         175          170
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             215            210          170         185          178
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.3           88.0         88.1        90.3         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.0            5.7          6.3         7.1          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.3           93.7         94.3        97.4         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.4            2.2          2.2         2.4          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.5            5.1          5.1         5.1          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.0            3.8          3.7         5.5          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.5            4.5          4.4         4.5          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          3.8            3.9          3.5         3.8          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          34.5           30.7         38.3        32.2         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.4         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.4         4.3          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9            1.8          2.0         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    70.4           66.7         74.1        68.1         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         82.3           77.8         85.1        81.1         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.55           1.43                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.43           1.33                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.28           2.28                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.33           1.22                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.45           1.37                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.50           1.40                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.73           1.87                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.26           1.23                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             20.25          17.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                21.75          20.03                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             19.75          17.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   11.88           7.25                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              16.00          20.50                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   22.00          20.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Jonathan Oatis)
  
 
 
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