June 2, 2020 / 1:26 PM / a month ago

U.S. natgas edges up as higher air-conditioning use offsets fall in LNG exports

    June 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Tuesday as power generators burned more fuel
to keep air conditioners humming despite a drop in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe and
Asia, where prices recently fell to record lows due to coronavirus demand destruction.
    Front-month gas futures rose 2.2 cents, or 1.2%, to $1.796 per million British thermal units
at 9:12 a.m. EDT (1312 GMT).
    Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 88.2 billion
cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in June, down from a one-year low of 89.3 bcfd in May and an all-time
monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November.
    With the coming of summer weather, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from
80.1 bcfd this week to 82.2 bcfd next week.
    LNG buyers have canceled dozens of U.S. cargoes since April,  when U.S. gas prices at the Henry Hub
benchmark in Louisiana started trading higher than major European hubs
for the first time in a decade. Analysts said those cancellations will likely increase in
coming months because gas in the United States is expected to remain more expensive than in Europe
through September.
    With LNG exports falling, the amount of pipeline gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants dropped to a
13-month low of 3.6 bcfd so far in June, down from an eight-month low of 6.4 bcfd in May and a monthly
record high of 8.7 bcfd in February.
    U.S. pipeline exports, however, started to rise as consumers crank up their air conditioners.
    Refinitiv said pipeline exports to Canada averaged 2.3 bcfd so far in June, up from a seven-month
low of 2.2 bcfd in May, while deliveries to Mexico hit 5.0 bcfd so far this month, up from a one-year
low of 4.7 bcfd in May.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          May 29        May 22        May 29     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                  May 29    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +112           +109         +118        +103     
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              11             12           17          22           22
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             163            162          127         140          128
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             174            174          144         162          150
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.3           88.6         88.6        89.9         77.5
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.1            6.2          6.6         8.0          7.9
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.1
 Total U.S. Supply                         94.3           94.8         95.1        97.9         85.5
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.1            2.2          2.3         2.2          1.9
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    4.8            4.9          4.8         4.8          4.1
 U.S. LNG Exports                          6.0            4.7          3.9         5.2          1.9
 U.S. Commercial                           4.6            4.6          4.5         4.6          4.7
 U.S. Residential                          4.0            4.0          3.8         4.1          4.1
 U.S. Power Plant                          29.5           32.0         35.2        32.0         31.0
 U.S. Industrial                           21.2           21.3         21.4        21.4         20.4
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.7            1.8          1.9         1.8          1.9
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    65.6           68.2         71.2        68.4         66.7
 Total U.S. Demand                         78.5           80.1         82.2        80.6         74.6
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.58           1.70                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.34           1.27                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.47           2.42                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.32           1.25                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.54           1.54                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.45           1.33                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.11           1.81                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.41           1.49                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             19.50          19.25                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                21.50          20.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             23.00          23.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                    9.69           9.18                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              33.25          24.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   35.00          15.50                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino)
  
 
 
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