July 2, 2020 / 1:51 PM / a month ago

U.S. natgas futures gain on hotter forecasts; focus on storage report

    July 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Thursday as forecasts for higher than normal
temperatures drove expectations of increased cooling demand for the fuel, while investors awaited the
U.S. Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report.
    The August gas futures contract was up 1.7 cents, or 1%, at $1.688  per million British
thermal units by 9:20 a.m. EDT (1320 GMT).
    "The natural gas weather outlook still remains relatively bullish, meaning (a) hot stretch coming up
over the next few weeks," said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis.
    Weather forecasts pointed toward a hot summer, with Refinitiv data indicating 248 cooling degree
days (CDDs) in the Lower 48 states over the next two weeks. The normal for this time of year is 194
CDDs.
    Investors are now eyeing the EIA's weekly storage report, scheduled to be released at 10:30 a.m. EDT
(1430 GMT).
    U.S. utilities likely injected a higher-than-normal 78 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into
storage last week after steps to quell the spread of the novel coronavirus reduced demand, a Reuters
poll showed on Wednesday.
    "If we do get a something near 70 injection today in the storage report and the weather remains
supported, we will continue to rally into July," DiDona said.
    Prolonged lockdowns to curb the spread of the coronavirus have kept many businesses shut, cutting
U.S. LNG exports by half since the start of the year with stockpiles filling fast, expected to reach a
record 4.1 trillion cubic feet by the end of October.
   
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                          June 26       June 19      June 26     average    
                                        (Forecast)      (Actual)                 June 26    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +78            +120         +92         +65      
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              2              2            3           4            4
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             248            248          221         203          194
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             250            250          224         207          198
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week                     
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)                                                                               
                                                                                            
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              87.3           87.3         87.2                       
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.5            6.4          6.8                        
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0                        
 Total U.S. Supply                         93.7           93.7         94.0                       
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.3            2.4          2.4                        
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.5            5.5          5.4                        
 U.S. LNG Exports                          4.1            4.1          3.3                        
 U.S. Commercial                           4.4            4.3          4.3                        
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.5          3.5                        
 U.S. Power Plant                          37.3           39.0         43.0                       
 U.S. Industrial                           21.3           21.3         21.3                       
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.3            4.3          4.3                        
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    1.9            2.0          2.1                        
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1                        
 Total U.S. Consumption                    72.9           74.6         78.7                       
 Total U.S. Demand                         84.9           86.5         89.8                       
                                                                                            
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.69           1.76                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.46           1.55                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.15           2.20                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.33           1.46                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.55           1.66                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.51           1.65                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           1.54           1.65                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 1.21           1.39                              
                                                                                            
 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             23.75          21.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                29.28          23.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             34.00          35.50                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                    2.05           2.05                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              22.25          22.25                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   22.75          22.75                              
 
 (Reporting by Diptendu Lahiri in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis)
  
 
 
0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below