Feb 2 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped 5% to an 11-week high on Tuesday as a major winter
snowstorm continued to batter the Northeast and on forecasts for even colder weather and more heating demand in
mid-February.
Front-month gas futures were up 14.3 cents, or 5%, to $2.993 per million British thermal units at
8:41 a.m. EST (1341 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since Nov. 13.
On Monday, the front-month settled at its highest level since Dec. 1 after rising over 11%, its biggest
daily percentage gain since September.
Commodity traders are watching closely for extraordinary price changes after a series of volatile moves in
numerous markets attributed to retail traders using Reddit, a social network. Those traders caused big moves in
small stocks like video game retailer GameStop Corp in late January and silver over the past few
days, prompting some to wonder whether the "Reddit crowd" was migrating into other fast-moving commodity markets
like gas.
Energy traders, however, said they have not heard that Reddit users were having much of an impact on the gas
market, but suggested they could have boosted interest in the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG). Volume on UNG
hit 10.7 million lots on Monday, its highest daily volume since December. That compares with a daily average of
around 5.1 million lots traded over the past year. Exchange-traded funds are viewed as more vulnerable to
herd-like activity than underlying futures contracts. So far on Tuesday, just over 300,000 UNG lots have traded.
Data provider Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would rise from 127.4 billion cubic
feet per day (bcfd) this week to 143.0 bcfd next week as the weather turns colder and heating use increases.
That forecast for next week was much higher than Refinitiv's outlook on Monday.
In the spot market, meanwhile, cold weather this week boosted next-day gas at the Dominion South hub
in southwest Pennsylvania to its highest level since March 2019. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Jan 29 Jan 22 Jan 29 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Jan 29
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): -184 -128 -155 -146 Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2020 (2016-2020)
Henry Hub 2.98 2.75 1.84 2.13 2.66
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 6.50 6.41 2.91 3.24 5.19
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 8.52 8.87 3.29 4.22 6.49 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 508 471 388 422 424
U.S. GFS CDDs 2 2 5 4 3
U.S. GFS TDDs 510 473 393 428 425 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 90.8 90.5 90.7 93.0 81.0
U.S. Imports from Canada 9.0 9.3 9.3 8.4 8.6
U.S. LNG Imports 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3
Total U.S. Supply 100.0 100.0 100.1 101.7 89.9
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.5 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.2 4.5
U.S. LNG Exports 10.0 10.8 11.0 9.3 3.2
U.S. Commercial 18.2 18.1 21.9 14.7 14.9
U.S. Residential 31.1 30.5 37.5 24.0 24.7
U.S. Power Plant 28.2 26.9 29.2 30.0 25.4
U.S. Industrial 25.5 25.3 26.9 24.5 24.4
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.9 2.9 3.3 2.9 2.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 110.5 108.2 123.4 100.7 96.9
Total U.S. Demand 129.1 127.4 143.0 117.9 107.2 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 2.88 2.68
Transco Z6 New York 4.91 2.98
PG&E Citygate 3.62 3.52
Dominion South 2.58 2.38
Chicago Citygate 2.77 2.64
Algonquin Citygate 8.35 5.50
SoCal Citygate 3.22 3.45
Waha Hub 2.66 2.50 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 70.00 91.50
PJM West 32.75 36.75
Ercot North 23.25 16.75
Mid C 34.75 33.00
Palo Verde 31.50 26.50
SP-15 32.00 26.75
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Paul Simao)
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