Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped over 6% on Wednesday from a seven-week low in
the prior session as output continues to slide lower, demand edges up and liquefied natural gas (LNG)
exports increase.
Front-month gas futures rose 11.2 cents, or 6.1%, to $1.946 per million British thermal
units at 8:20 a.m. EDT (1220 GMT). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since July 31 for a
second day in a row.
Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 U.S. states was on track to fall to 83.8
billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Wednesday, its lowest since August 2018 as low prices earlier this
year prompted energy firms to cut back on drilling by so much that the amount of gas from new wells was
no longer enough to cover declines at existing wells. The rig count fell to a record low in mid August.
With low prices earlier in the week, Refinitiv projected demand, including exports, would rise from
82.0 bcfd this week to 84.4 bcfd next week as electric generators burn more gas instead of coal to
produce power.
The amount of gas flowing to LNG export plants was on track to rise from a two-week low of 3.9 bcfd
on Tuesday to 4.0 bcfd on Wednesday as some vessels docked in the Gulf of Mexico after Tropical Storm
Beta dissipated.
For the month, LNG feedgas averaged 5.4 bcfd so far in September. That was the most in a month
since May and was up for a second month in a row for the first time since hitting a record 8.7 bcfd in
February as global gas prices rise, making U.S. gas more attractive.
U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, were on track to average 6.0 bcfd in September, which
would top August's record 5.9 bcfd.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Sep 18 Sep 11 Sep 18 average
(Actual) (Actual) Sep 18
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +74 +89 +97 +80 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 57 48 37 52 73
U.S. GFS CDDs 84 85 137 91 70
U.S. GFS TDDs 141 133 174 143 143
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 86.4 85.6 85.7 93.7 79.7
U.S. Imports from Canada 5.7 5.5 6.1 8.1 8.1
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 92.2 91.2 91.7 101.8 87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.8 4.5
U.S. LNG Exports 6.9 5.3 5.0 6.1 2.1
U.S. Commercial 4.9 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.7
U.S. Residential 4.1 4.7 4.7 3.9 3.7
U.S. Power Plant 33.8 31.0 33.3 33.8 32.0
U.S. Industrial 21.5 21.6 21.8 21.2 20.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 70.7 68.7 71.3 69.9 67.4
Total U.S. Demand 85.4 82.0 84.4 84.3 76.3 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.49 1.33
Transco Z6 New York 1.17 0.78
PG&E Citygate 3.64 3.50
Dominion South 1.10 0.73
Chicago Citygate 1.50 1.44
Algonquin Citygate 1.30 1.05
SoCal Citygate 3.00 2.51
Waha Hub 1.07 0.90 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 21.25 20.75
PJM West 19.50 18.75
Ercot North 17.25 16.00
Mid C 29.75 30.29
Palo Verde 35.50 36.25
SP-15 38.50 32.75
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Nick Zieminski)
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.