Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday edged
up to their highest since January as liquefied natural gas
exports surge higher and on forecasts the weather will remain
hot through late August after Hurricane Isaias blows through,
keeping air conditioners humming.
Front-month gas futures rose 3.9 cents, or 1.9%, to
$2.140 per million British thermal units at 8:37 a.m. EDT (1237
GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since
Jan. 14.
That puts the contract into overbought territory with a
Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70 for a second day in a row
for the first time since November 2019. On Monday, volume in the
front-month, which soared almost 17%, topped 381,000 contracts,
its highest since hitting a record 495,196 in November 2018
during the market's most volatile period, when it rose 18% one
day and fell 17% the next.
Hurricane Isaias, which hit North Carolina overnight, broke
the heat wave that has blanketed much of the country since late
June. The storm left more than 600,000 homes and businesses in
North Carolina and Virginia without power early Tuesday and was
expected to cause more damage as it scrapes north up the East
Coast.
But with hot weather expected to return after Isaias blows
away, data provider Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including
exports, will rise from an average of 88.6 bcfd this week to
91.8 bcfd next week. That, however, is a little lower than
Refinitiv's outlook on Monday as higher prices cause power
generators to burn more coal instead of gas.
U.S. LNG exports are on track to rise for the first time in
six months as the amount of pipeline gas flowing to the plants
rose to 4.0 bcfd in August from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in
July when buyers canceled dozens of cargoes.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Jul Jul 24 Jul 31 average
31(Forecast) (Actual) Jul 31
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +35 +26 +58 +33 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 3 4 1 3 3
U.S. GFS CDDs 213 211 218 200 193
U.S. GFS TDDs 216 215 219 203 196
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 88.5 88.1 88.2 92.3 79.1
U.S. Imports from Canada 6.8 6.9 7.0 8.1 8.0
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Total U.S. Supply 95.3 94.9 95.2 100.4 87.3
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.3 2.2 2.2 3.0 2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico 5.7 5.7 5.7 4.8 4.4
U.S. LNG Exports 3.2 4.0 5.0 4.3 2.0
U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5
U.S. Residential 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.3
U.S. Power Plant 44.7 40.7 42.8 43.6 36.6
U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.4 20.6
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 80.7 76.7 79.0 79.3 71.4
Total U.S. Demand 91.9 88.6 91.8 91.4 80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub 1.95 1.83
Transco Z6 New York 1.67 1.50
PG&E Citygate 2.60 2.54
Dominion South 1.46 1.23
Chicago Citygate 1.78 1.66
Algonquin Citygate 1.50 1.51
SoCal Citygate 2.20 2.26
Waha Hub 0.80 0.64 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England 30.75 28.00
PJM West 29.75 26.75
Ercot North 27.00 35.45
Mid C 28.00 20.81
Palo Verde 27.75 54.00
SP-15 28.00 43.00
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
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