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Oil report

U.S. natgas rises to highest since January on surging LNG exports, hot weather

    Aug 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures on Tuesday edged
up to their highest since January as liquefied natural gas
exports surge higher and on forecasts the weather will remain
hot through late August after Hurricane Isaias blows through,
keeping air conditioners humming.
    Front-month gas futures rose 3.9 cents, or 1.9%, to
$2.140 per million British thermal units at 8:37 a.m. EDT (1237
GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since
Jan. 14.
    That puts the contract into overbought territory with a
Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70 for a second day in a row
for the first time since November 2019. On Monday, volume in the
front-month, which soared almost 17%, topped 381,000 contracts,
its highest since hitting a record 495,196 in November 2018
during the market's most volatile period, when it rose 18% one
day and fell 17% the next.
    Hurricane Isaias, which hit North Carolina overnight, broke
the heat wave that has blanketed much of the country since late
June. The storm left more than 600,000 homes and businesses in
North Carolina and Virginia without power early Tuesday and was
expected to cause more damage as it scrapes north up the East
Coast.
    But with hot weather expected to return after Isaias blows
away, data provider Refinitiv projected U.S. demand, including
exports, will rise from an average of 88.6 bcfd this week to
91.8 bcfd next week. That, however, is a little lower than
Refinitiv's outlook on Monday as higher prices cause power
generators to burn more coal instead of gas.
    U.S. LNG exports are on track to rise for the first time in
six months as the amount of pipeline gas flowing to the plants
rose to 4.0 bcfd in August from a 21-month low of 3.3 bcfd in
July when buyers canceled dozens of cargoes.
    
                                       Week ended      Week ended    Year ago   Five-year   
                                            Jul          Jul 24       Jul 31     average    
                                       31(Forecast)     (Actual)                  Jul 31    
 U.S. natgas storage (bcf):                +35            +26          +58         +33 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days                         
 Two-Week Total Forecast               Current Day     Prior Day    Prior Year   10-Year    30-Year Norm
                                                                                   Norm     
 U.S. GFS HDDs                              3              4            1           3            3
 U.S. GFS CDDs                             213            211          218         200          193
 U.S. GFS TDDs                             216            215          219         203          196
                                                                                            
 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts                                      
                                        Prior Week    Current Week  Next Week   This Week    Five-Year
                                                                                Last Year   Average For
                                                                                               Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production              88.5           88.1         88.2        92.3         79.1
 U.S. Imports from Canada                  6.8            6.9          7.0         8.1          8.0
 U.S. LNG Imports                          0.0            0.0          0.0         0.0          0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                         95.3           94.9         95.2       100.4         87.3
 
 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                    2.3            2.2          2.2         3.0          2.2
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                    5.7            5.7          5.7         4.8          4.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                          3.2            4.0          5.0         4.3          2.0
 U.S. Commercial                           4.4            4.4          4.5         4.4          4.5
 U.S. Residential                          3.5            3.6          3.7         3.5          3.3
 U.S. Power Plant                          44.7           40.7         42.8        43.6         36.6
 U.S. Industrial                           21.4           21.4         21.5        21.4         20.6
 U.S. Plant Fuel                           4.4            4.4          4.4         4.3          4.3
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                    2.1            2.0          2.1         2.0          2.0
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                         0.1            0.1          0.1         0.1          0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                    80.7           76.7         79.0        79.3         71.4
 Total U.S. Demand                         91.9           88.6         91.8        91.4         80.0 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)                                         
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL                   1.95           1.83                              
 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL        1.67           1.50                              
 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL             2.60           2.54                              
 Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL           1.46           1.23                              
 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL           1.78           1.66                              
 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL         1.50           1.51                              
 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL           2.20           2.26                              
 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL                 0.80           0.64 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)                                       
 Hub                                   Current Day     Prior Day                            
 New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL             30.75          28.00                              
 PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL                29.75          26.75                              
 Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL             27.00          35.45                              
 Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL                   28.00          20.81                              
 Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL              27.75          54.00                              
 SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL                   28.00          43.00                              
 
 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
  
 
 
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