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Oil Report

FACTBOX-Oil price rebound widely seen capped at $45, for now

(Adds Macquarie comments)
    March 28 (Reuters) - With oil prices having gained about 50 percent since touching multi-year lows in January, most analysts are
predicting the end of the year-and-a-half long rout, but also betting that there is little upside in the near future.
    After falling as low as $26 a barrel, U.S. crude oil futures hit a 2016 high of nearly $42 a barrel last week. On Monday they were
trading at around $39 a barrel, with some analysts betting the rebound had run its course.
    The following is a selection of near-term price predictions by leading forecasters, plus banks' annual average price forecasts for
benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate. For a full list of recent forecast changes see 
    
    
 Bank Name        Date    Comments                                     Call                                         Brent 2016  WTI 2016 Forecast    Forecast
 Macquarie        28-Mar  Although we are constructive over the        Crude prices will pull back to somewhere in     $45.00      $42.00 
                          medium and long term, the current oil price  the mid- to low $30 range                                
                          recovery has occurred against a backdrop of                                                           
                          weak fundamentals. Under-appreciated bearish fundamentals plus                                                           
                          stagnating (bullish) externalities should                                                             
                          reverse this rally.                                                                                   
 Bank of America  17-Mar  OPEC's output freeze, a strong driving       WTI hits $47 by June                               $46         $45 
 Merrill Lynch            season, easy money, and falling U.S. shale                                                            
                          output should push WTI prices to $47 by                                                               
                          June. Spot oil prices, however, could trade                                                           
                          above forward prices next year as                                                                     
                          inventories start to draw, pointing to an                                                             
                          average price of $59 per barrel in 2017                                                               
 Societe          16-Mar  Recent developments on both the demand and   Prices above $45 seen self-limiting             $38.12      $36.20 
 Generale                 supply side of the equation lead us to                                                                
                          believe that the bottom in prices should be                                                           
                          behind us and that the first stages of                                                                
                          rebalancing should begin to take shape as                                                             
                          the year progresses. Given that fundamentals are still weak, we                                                            
                          feel that (oil) prices have risen a little                                                            
                          too much recently and that a moderate                                                                 
                          retracement is likely to take place.                                                                  
 Morgan Stanley   14-Mar  Hedging plus storage may cap WTI upside in   WTI capped in the low-to-mid $40s               $33.00      $31.50 
                          the low-to-mid 40s. Bloated inventories                                                               
                          will keep the curve from flipping into                                                                
                          backwardation, particularly for WTI.                                                                  
 Goldman Sachs    11-Mar  Oil prices rallied, in large part due to     Prices expected in $25-$45 range                $39.00      $38.00 
                          China relief and a weaker US dollar after                                                             
                          the dovish Fed meeting. The rally might be                                                            
                          self-defeating by delaying supply cuts;                                                               
                          prices are at the upper end of our expected                                                           
                          $25-45/barrel range. We expect oil prices                                                             
                          to remain volatile in the second quarter                                                              
                          and sharp declines could weigh on the                                                                 
                          relief rally.                                                                                         
 Credit Suisse     3-Mar  Oil prices could hit $50 per barrel in May.  May hit $50 in May                              $36.25      $37.75 
 
 (Compiled by Koustav Samanta, Swati Verma, Apeksha Nair, Arpan Varghese, Vijaykumar Vedala in Bengaluru)
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