Agamoni Ghosh

EMERGING MARKETS-Trade hopes nudge EM assets higher; Rand firms on ratings relief

Nov 25 2019

Nov 25 Assets in emerging markets strengthened slightly on Monday after a report said the United States and China were 'very close' to a phase one deal, while South Africa's rand firmed on the back of a sovereign rating reprieve.

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks retreat on trade deal uncertainty; Brazil outperform

Nov 21 2019

* Brazil stocks outshine Latam equities * Mexican, Colombian peso gain on higher oil prices (Updates prices; adds quote, news items) By Medha Singh and Agamoni Ghosh Nov 21 Most Latin American stocks slipped on Thursday while currencies were mixed as clashing headlines related to a trade deal between United States and China subdued risk appetite. Mexican stocks slipped 1% while equities in Chile , Colombia, Argentina were all down between 0.1% and 0.7%. Worries that an initial trade deal between United States and China could slide into next year, as well as political tensions between the two sides because the U.S. Congress passed legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong, soured the mood. "These headlines are just all noise mostly," said Christian Lawrence, senior market strategist at Rabobank who doesn't think that a trade deal will come through this year. However, a report suggesting the United States could delay tariffs even if a deal was not reached by Dec. 15 kept losses in check. Bucking the trend, Brazilian stocks rose 0.7% following a market holiday, lifted by shares of the heavyweight Petrobras. Magazine Luiza SA slipped marginally while and Lojas Marisa SA rose about 3% after the Brazilian retailers announced a partnership to sell smartphones and financial services in roughly 300 stores of apparel retailer Marisa. Among currencies, the crude exporters Mexico and Colombia's peso strengthened on the back of higher oil prices after a report that OPEC and its allies were likely to extend output cuts. Brazil's real slipped 0.3%, in a tepid response to President Jair Bolsonaro launching a new political party, the Alliance for Brazil (APB), under the banner of fighting graft and advancing Christian values. The region's currency index has fallen about 5% since its October peak bogged down worries over drawn out anti-government protests in Chile and an unsuccessful oil auction in Brazil. Credit Suisse strategists reiterated 'overweight' recommendations for emerging market equities on Thursday, citing that they have become very cheap with concerns over China's slowdown, trade war and strengthening dollar. Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1530 GMT: Stock Latest daily % change indexes MSCI Emerging Markets 1043.95 -0.77 MSCI LatAm 2665.51 0.14 Brazil Bovespa 106733.13 0.82 Mexico IPC 43198.91 -0.93 Chile IPSA 4754.36 -0.66 Argentina MerVal 33362.76 -0.175 Colombia COL 1590.62 -0.62 Currencies Latest daily % change Brazil real 4.2069 -0.21 Mexico peso 19.4123 0.23 Chile peso 794.8 -0.62 Colombia peso 3416.9 0.71 Peru sol 3.372 0.30 Argentina peso (interbank) 59.7900 -0.10 (Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Grant McCool)

EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX muted after mixed signals on trade; Brazil stocks gain

Nov 21 2019

* China says will strive to reach trade agreement * Sino-U.S. trade deal could slide into 2020 - report * Brazil real, Colombian peso trading flat * Mexican peso gains on higher oil prices By Sagarika Jaisinghani and Agamoni Ghosh Nov 21 Latin American currencies were little changed on Thursday as conflicting news on trade and a diplomatic row between the United States and China kept investors away from riskier assets, while Brazil stocks were lifted by upbeat corporate reports. The Brazilian real was trading flat, while the Peruvian Sol and Colombian peso firmed just 0.2% against a slightly weaker dollar. China said on Thursday it would strive to reach a trade agreement with the United States, in an attempt to allay fears that negotiations might be unraveling after a report on Wednesday said the deal could slide into next year. U.S. legislation protecting human rights in Hong Kong has also drawn China's criticism and exacerbated concerns about a delay in the resolution to the Sino-U.S. tariff dispute that has dented global growth and dulled business sentiment. "EM assets seem to be struggling today on those concerns about trade and we think they will continue to tread water over the next couple of months on added concerns of a global slowdown," said Jason Tuvey, senior economist at Capital Economics in London. Global stocks retreated from 22-month highs scaled in recent weeks on strengthening hopes of an agreement, which U.S. President Donald Trump said last month could be signed by mid-November. The Mexican peso was an outlier among its regional peers, gaining 0.5% and tracking oil prices higher as a report said OPEC and its allies would likely extend output cuts until mid-2020. Still, currencies in Latin America are on track to post their first monthly decline in three on unsuccessful oil auctions in Brazil and prolonged anti-government protests in Chile. The Chilean peso eased again on Thursday after losing more than 2% this week, staying on course for its fifth weekly decline in a row. The country's stock index was down 0.3%. Shares in Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, rose 0.2% after a market holiday on Wednesday. The stock index was boosted by industry heavyweight Petrobras, which said late on Tuesday it would sell its LPG distributor, Liquigas, to Copagaz and National Gas Butano for 3.7 billion reais (about $880 million). Shares in Mexico, Argentina, Colombia and Peru were all trending lower. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1530 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1042.61 -0.89 MSCI LatAm 2652.23 -0.36 Brazil Bovespa 106098.84 0.22 Mexico IPC 43333.47 -0.62 Chile SPIPSA 4771.75 -0.3 Argentina MerVal 33187.74 -0.698 Colombia Colcap 1595.25 -0.33 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 4.2119 -0.33 Mexico peso 19.4249 0.17 Chile peso 796.91 -0.88 Colombia peso 3442.71 -0.05 Peru sol 3.3778 0.12 Argentina peso (interbank) 59.7400 -0.02 ($1 = 4.1934 reais) (Reporting by Sagarika Jaisinghani in Bengaluru; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Trade worries push European shares to worst day in three weeks

Nov 20 2019

European shares logged their worst day in three weeks on Wednesday on mounting worries that rising U.S.-China tensions could take a toll on trade negotiations between the two countries.

European shares take a breather, ease off four-year peak

Nov 19 2019

European stocks reversed course to close lower in a choppy session on Tuesday as lack of clarity on the progress of trade talks between Washington and Beijing kept investors from making bold bets.

EMERGING MARKETS-Trade uncertainty casts a pall on Latam currencies; Brazil's real hits life low

Nov 18 2019

(Updates prices; adds quote, news items) * Brazil's real hits record low * Beijing 'pessimistic' on trade deal -CNBC report * Argentina, Mexico stock markets shut for holiday By Medha Singh and Agamoni Ghosh Nov 18 Latin American currencies started the week with declines as conflicting headlines surrounding U.S.-China trade talks kept investors on the sidelines, while Brazil's real closed at an all-time low. MSCI's index for Latin American currencies slipped 0.3%, resuming its downward trend as it fell for the tenth time in the last eleven sessions. Sentiment took a hit earlier in the day after CNBC reported that the mood in Beijing was "pessimistic" because of U.S. President Donald Trump's reluctance to roll back tariffs. However, the Trump administration issued a new 90-day extension that allowed U.S. companies to continue doing business with China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd , which tempered the initial losses. "This week, we are going to be range-bound but that range will be decided by the trade headlines," said Christian Lawrence, senior market strategist at Rabobank. A slide in oil prices also weighed on currencies of net crude exporters such as Mexico and Colombia's peso . REAL CURRENCY AT LIFE LOW Brazil's real reversed course to drop marginally as traders pushed the currency through the key level where the central bank had intervened in August by selling dollars on the spot market. "Looking at the fundamentals, the real at 4.20 per U.S. dollar, does not seem to justify its level," said Wilson Ferrarezi, Brazil economist at TS Lombard. "This could indicate the currency is oversold, especially because important reforms like the pension reform have already been approved by the Congress." The currency has dropped about 8% this year as the economy sluggishly recovers from a deep recession and struggles to cope with a mounting fiscal deficit. Stocks in Sao Paulo were marginally lower as investors returned from a long weekend. Among prominent movers, Marfrig Global Foods SA rose 5% after the food processor announced it raised its stake in U.S. meatpacker National Beef Packing Company to 81.7% from 51%. The Chilean peso fell slightly as a drop in copper prices hit the currency of the world's biggest producer of the red metal. The peso had jumped about 4% in the prior session as lawmakers on Friday agreed to hold a referendum to overhaul the country's dictatorship-era constitution. Chile's stocks pared back slightly after posting their best one-day percentage jump in 11 years in the previous session. Trading was subdued on Monday as stock markets in Mexico and Argentina were shut for holidays. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 2010 GMT: Stock indexes daily % change Latest MSCI Emerging Markets 1051.32 0.24 MSCI LatAm 2675.09 -0.54 Brazil Bovespa 106480.95 -0.07 Mexico IPC - - Chile IPSA 4814.17 -0.97 Argentina MerVal - - Colombia IGBC 0.00 0 Currencies daily % change Latest Brazil real 4.2054 -0.24 Mexico peso 19.3022 -0.65 Chile peso 775.53 -0.46 Colombia peso 3439.5 -0.47 Peru sol 3.372 -0.27 Argentina peso (interbank) - - (Reporting by Medha Singh and Agamoni Ghosh in Bengaluru)

European stocks end flat as defensive gains offset auto slide

Nov 18 2019

European stocks ended flat on Monday as a spurt of defensive buying over uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade talks helped temper losses in the auto sector.

European shares clock sixth weekly gain on trade cheer

Nov 15 2019

European shares clocked a sixth-straight week of gains on Friday following record highs on Wall Street after bullish comments from a White House official on U.S.-China trade talks.

European shares hit by Daimler warning, weak economic data

Nov 14 2019

European shares closed lower on Thursday as a warning from German carmaker Daimler and weak economic data from major economies added to concerns about a global slowdown.

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