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Andy Bruce

UK economy slows in three months to October, Brexit uncertainty looms

Dec 10 2018

LONDON Britain's economy lost speed in the three months to October, reflecting lower car sales and factory stoppages due to weaker demand that business groups blamed on uncertainty about Brexit.

UPDATE 1-UK economy slows in three months to October, Brexit uncertainty looms

Dec 10 2018

* UK GDP +0.4 pct 3m/3m in Oct vs Q3 +0.6 pct * Factory output falls by most on year since March 2016 * Q3 trade revisions point towards weaker GDP growth (Adds detail) By David Milliken and Andy Bruce LONDON, Dec 10 Britain's economy lost speed in the three months to October, reflecting lower car sales and factory stoppages due to weaker demand that business groups blamed on uncertainty about Brexit. Gross domestic product growth slowed to 0.4 percent, in line with a Reuters poll of economists, from a strong 0.6 percent in the third quarter of 2018. Monday's data confirmed that the economy's strength over the summer represented something of a blip, caused by a boost to consumer spending from an unusually warm summer. "The latest GDP data is further evidence that the drag effect of persistent Brexit uncertainty and the significant cost pressures faced by consumers and businesses is taking its toll on the UK economy," Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said. Markets showed little reaction to the data, with their focus on whether Prime Minister Theresa May would go ahead with a parliament vote on her preferred Brexit deal due on Tuesday, which she looks likely to lose heavily. The Office for National Statistics also highlighted a jump in Britain's trade deficit for the three months to September compared with previous figures, raising the prospect that third-quarter growth relied more on the domestic economy than thought. More recent private-sector business surveys have suggested the economy is slowing sharply in the face of uncertainty about the terms on which Britain will leave the European Union. The surveys have shown that fourth-quarter economic growth could be as weak as 0.1 percent. If May loses Tuesday's vote, the options for Brexit range from Britain facing major customs barriers when it leaves the EU in March to fresh national elections or a second referendum on leaving the EU. Monday's data do not give updated details of business investment, which fell sharply in the three months to September. Britain's economy has slowed since the June 2016 Brexit vote, its annual growth rate slipping from top spot among the Group of Seven group of rich nations to vying with Japan and Italy for bottom place in the rankings. The slower GDP growth in Monday's data reflected a hit to the services sector from lower car sales, volatile pharmaceuticals production and reports of factory stoppages due to a lack of demand. Year-on-year economic growth in October held at September's 1.5 percent, against expectations of a slight pick-up, while in October alone GDP rose by 0.1 percent as expected Factory output recorded its largest fall since March 2016, down 1.0 percent on the year. Britain's goods trade deficit in October was bigger than expected at 11.8 billion pounds ($15.0 billion), and its total deficit for goods and services for the three months to September was revised up to 9.8 billion pounds from 2.9 billion pounds. The ONS said this revision was likely to erase the 0.8 percentage point positive contribution which net trade would have made to third-quarter GDP growth. The initial estimate of GDP was made primarily by looking at output components of GDP, so the revision did not necessarily imply revised growth would be weaker but did suggest trade played less of a role. Revised GDP data are due on Dec. 21. ($1 = 0.7857 pounds) (Editing by Matthew Mpoke Bigg)

Brexit betrayal would hurt UK more than leaving - Hammond

Dec 05 2018

LONDON A Brexit outcome that left a large segment of the British people feeling betrayed would damage the country more than the small economic cost of Prime Minister Theresa May's preferred Brexit plan, Chancellor Philip Hammond said on Wednesday.

Brexit betrayal would hurt UK more than leaving: Hammond

Dec 05 2018

LONDON Any Brexit outcome that left a large chunk of the British people feeling betrayed would damage the country more than the modest economic cost of pursuing Prime Minister Theresa May's preferred Brexit plan, finance minister Philip Hammond said on Wednesday.

Shock slide in UK services PMI points to stalling economy

Dec 05 2018

LONDON Uncertainty about the terms of Brexit next March clobbered British services firms last month, leaving the economy at risk of contracting, a survey showed on Wednesday. | Video

Batten down the hatches: British bond investors brace for Brexit

Dec 04 2018

LONDON On top of the risk that Britain will leave the European Union in March without a transition deal, its government faces an extra headache next year: the biggest debt-refinancing bill in recent history.

Another UK minister quits in protest at PM May's Brexit deal

Nov 30 2018

LONDON British science and universities minister, Sam Gyimah, quit Prime Minister Theresa May's government on Friday, the sixth minister to resign in protest of her proposed Brexit deal with the European Union.

Net migration of EU citizens to UK hits six-year low

Nov 29 2018

LONDON Net migration of European Union citizens to Britain fell to its lowest level in nearly six years during the year to June, extending a decline seen since Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016, official data showed on Thursday.

UK consumer confidence slides to 11-month low ahead of Brexit

Nov 29 2018

LONDON British consumers' confidence fell to its lowest level in almost a year as their view of the economic outlook for the next 12 months sank to its weakest since shortly after 2016's Brexit vote, a survey showed on Thursday.

Factbox: The cost of Brexit - Britain sets out the scenarios

Nov 28 2018

LONDON Britain's government and the Bank of England warned on Wednesday that a no-deal Brexit would hammer the economy, while Prime Minister Theresa May's plan for leaving the European Union, opposed by many lawmakers, could soften the blow.

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