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Anisha Sheth

India inflation seen inching up in March, but still below RBI target: Reuters poll

Apr 09 2019

BENGALURU India's retail inflation is expected to have accelerated in March on slightly higher food prices but remain under the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4 percent, a Reuters poll predicted.

ECB to delay rate hikes to next year, restart cheap loans soon: Reuters poll

Feb 28 2019

BENGALURU Faced with a serious slowdown in euro zone economic growth, the European Central Bank is set to delay hiking interest rates from record lows until next year and will soon re-launch its offer of long-term loans to banks, a Reuters poll found.

India inflation likely eased in November to 16-month low: Reuters poll

Dec 09 2018

BENGALURU Indian inflation is likely to have cooled to a 16-month low in November, according to a Reuters poll, as food and fuel prices fell, supporting the Reserve Bank of India's decision to keep interest rates on hold at a policy meeting last week.

POLL-India inflation likely eased in Nov to 16-mth low

Dec 09 2018

* reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=INCPIY%3DECI retail inflation poll data

Next India rate rise pushed back again, now well into 2019: Reuters poll

Nov 29 2018

BENGALURU The Reserve Bank of India won't raise interest rates until at least April, much later than thought just one month ago, according to economists polled by Reuters who say that rise will probably be a "one-and-done."

With an eye on faltering rupee, RBI to raise rates next week: Reuters poll

Sep 26 2018

BENGALURU The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise interest rates in early October, despite relatively tame inflation, to prop up a retreating rupee, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also trimmed their near-term growth forecasts.

CORRECTED-POLL-With an eye on faltering rupee, RBI to raise rates next week

Sep 26 2018

(Corrects to say deficit in both instances for current account reference in paragraph 15. In paragraph 20, inflation is expected to be significantly lower in the coming quarters, not for the middle of 2019; also fixes expected average Q4 inflation rate to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent) * reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=INREPO%3DECI RBI poll data * reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=INGDPAP GDP poll data * Reuters poll graphic on biggest downside risk to the Indian economy: https://tmsnrt.rs/2xB8sNF?eikon=true By Anisha Sheth and Hari Kishan BENGALURU, Sept 26 The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise interest rates in early October, despite relatively tame inflation, to prop up a retreating rupee, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also trimmed their near-term growth forecasts. In an abrupt change from the last survey conducted two months ago, which predicted rates would stay on hold until this quarter next year, over two-thirds of 61 economists polled Sept. 19-25 said the RBI would lift the repo rate at least once by year-end. Slightly over half said RBI Governor Urjit Patel and the Monetary Policy Committee would deliver a 25 basis point rise to 6.75 percent at the Oct. 5 policy meeting, with one economist calling for a 50 basis point rise. The predicted rate hike would be the RBI's third this year, having lifted borrowing costs in June and August. The U.S. Federal Reserve is forecast to raise rates on Wednesday - its third this year - according a separate Reuters poll. For many analysts, the retreating Indian rupee , which has tumbled nearly 15 percent since the start of the year and is the worst-performing major Asian currency, is likely of concern to policymakers. On Tuesday the rupee, hit recently by growing credit concerns engulfing non-banking financial companies, was trading at 72.68 to the dollar. The finance ministry also wants the RBI to boost liquidity. "For the RBI, I think it becomes necessary to provide a policy response. The question was only of timing," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS in Singapore. "Some would say it (rate hike) could have come sooner ... it probably would have been a bit more beneficial. But better now than never." If the RBI does raise rates, it would be the latest in a series of emerging market central banks that have been pressured into tightening policy in response to a tumbling currency. Fortunately for the RBI, the economy is doing well. The Indian economy is forecast to expand by an annual rate of more than 7 percent every quarter for the next two years, although slower than the surprise 8.2 percent rate clocked last quarter. This means that India will remain the world's fastest growing major economy, but economists have chopped forecasts somewhat for coming quarters. "Although the high growth rate in Q2 might be partly attributed to favourable base effects ... the underlying dynamics of the Indian economy shows that virtually all high-frequency data is flashing green," said Hugo Erken, senior economist at Rabobank. Prices of crude oil - the country's biggest import – have surged by over 20 percent this year. That in turn has swollen the current account deficit to an average 1.9 percent of GDP in the fiscal year that ended in March from 0.7 percent in the 2016-17 fiscal year. The deficit is forecast to widen further to 2.8 percent of GDP in the fiscal year ending in March 2019, before easing slightly to 2.5 percent in 2019-20. Just over half of 49 respondents who answered an additional question said the biggest economic risk over the coming year was higher fuel prices. The escalating U.S.-China trade war has not had a major impact on India so far but has spurred on a broad selloff in emerging market assets since the beginning of this year. The sharp fall in the rupee has not stirred much worry about inflation, however, which was just under 3.7 percent in August, slightly below the 4 percent where the RBI prefers it to be. Inflation is expected to average 4.1 percent this quarter and 4.2 percent next - significantly lower than the predictions in the last poll two months ago - but rise to 5 percent by the middle of 2019. Economists were almost evenly split on whether a weaker rupee posed the biggest upside risk to inflation, with 26 of 51 respondents saying it was. But even if the RBI raises rates on Oct. 5, it will still struggle to keep up with the Fed, which is expected to tighten policy well into next year. "The RBI will have to do more, though that looks unlikely on the grounds of on-target inflation and stress in the financial sector," Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING, wrote in a research note. (Polling by Khushboo Mittal and Vivek Mishra; editing by Ross Finley and Shri Navaratnam)

CORRECTED-POLL-With an eye on faltering rupee, RBI to raise rates next week

Sep 26 2018

(Corrects date of RBI meeting to Oct. 5, not Oct. 4, in third paragraph) * reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=INREPO%3DECI RBI poll data * reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=INGDPAP GDP poll data * Reuters poll graphic on biggest downside risk to the Indian economy: https://tmsnrt.rs/2xB8sNF?eikon=true By Anisha Sheth and Hari Kishan BENGALURU, Sept 26 The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise interest rates in early October, despite relatively tame inflation, to prop up a retreating rupee, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also trimmed their near-term growth forecasts. In an abrupt change from the last survey conducted two months ago, which predicted rates would stay on hold until this quarter next year, two-thirds of 61 economists polled Sept. 19-25 said the RBI would lift the repo rate at least once by year-end. Slightly over half said RBI Governor Urjit Patel and the Monetary Policy Committee would deliver a 25-basis-point rise to 6.75 percent at the Oct. 5 policy meeting, with one economist calling for a 50-basis-point rise. The predicted rate hike would be the RBI's third this year, having lifted borrowing costs in June and August. The U.S. Federal Reserve is forecast to raise rates this week - its third this year - according a separate Reuters poll. For many analysts, the retreating Indian rupee , which has tumbled nearly 15 percent since the start of the year and is the worst-performing major Asian currency, is likely of concern to policymakers. On Tuesday the rupee, hit recently by growing credit concerns engulfing non-banking financial companies, was trading at 72.68 to the dollar. The finance ministry also wants RBI to boost liquidity. "For the RBI, I think it becomes necessary to provide a policy response. The question was only of timing," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS in Singapore. "Some would say it (rate hike) could have come sooner ... it probably would have been a bit more beneficial. But better now than never." If the RBI does raise rates, it would be the latest in a series of emerging market central banks that have been pressured into tightening policy in response to a tumbling currency. Fortunately for the RBI, the economy is doing well. The Indian economy is forecast to expand by an annual rate of more than 7 percent every quarter for the next two years, although slower than the surprise 8.2 percent rate clocked last quarter. This means that India will remain the world's fastest growing major economy, but economists have chopped forecasts somewhat for coming quarters. "Although the high growth rate in Q2 might be partly attributed to favourable base effects ... the underlying dynamics of the Indian economy shows that virtually all high-frequency data is flashing green," said Hugo Erken, senior economist at Rabobank. Prices of crude oil - the country's biggest import – have surged by over 20 percent this year. That in turn has swollen the current account gap to 1.9 percent of GDP, swinging to deficit from a small surplus of 0.7 percent a year ago. That gap is forecast to widen further to 2.8 percent of GDP by the fiscal year ending in March 2019, before easing slightly to 2.5 percent in 2019-20. Just over half of 49 respondents who answered an additional question said the biggest economic risk over the coming year was higher fuel prices. The escalating U.S.-China trade war has not had a major impact on India so far but has spurred on a broad selloff in emerging market assets since the beginning of this year. The sharp fall in the rupee has not stirred much worry about inflation, however, which was just under 3.7 percent in August, slightly below the 4 percent where the RBI prefers it to be. It is expected to average 4.1 percent this quarter and next, but rise to 5 percent by the middle of 2019 - significantly lower than the predictions in the last poll two months ago. Economists were almost evenly split on whether a weaker rupee posed the biggest upside risk to inflation, with 26 of 51 respondents saying it was. But even if the RBI raises rates on Oct. 4, it will still struggle to keep up with the Fed, which is expected to keep tighten policy well into next year. "The RBI will have to do more, though that looks unlikely on the grounds of on-target inflation and stress in the financial sector," Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING, wrote in a research note. (Reporting by Anisha Sheth; polling by Khushboo Mittal and Vivek Mishra; editing by Ross Finley and Shri Navaratnam)

RBI seen turning hawkish in June, raising rates in August: Reuters poll

May 31 2018

BENGALURU The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike rates in August on concerns that already above-target inflation will climb further, according to economists in a Reuters poll, in contrast to a survey just a month ago which saw an increase only in the second half of 2019.

RBI to take hawkish stance by end-2018, hike rates early next year: Reuters poll

Mar 29 2018

BENGALURU The Reserve Bank of India will keep monetary policy steady at its April meeting but shift to a hawkish stance by the end of this year and raise interest rates early in 2019 as inflation pressures build, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

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