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International

Anita Komuves

CEE MARKETS-Forint underperforms; investors unwind zloty short bets

Apr 16 2021

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, April 16 The Hungarian forint extended losses on Friday, while other central European currencies were stable or slightly higher, as investors unwound their short positions on the zloty. The Hungarian forint slid 0.42% to 360.80 per euro, underperforming its peers. It has lost 1% this week. The currency weakened in low liquidity because of a zloty-forint flow, traders in Budapest said, adding that the forint was also due for a correction after steady gains in the past few weeks. "Many investors had shorted the zloty in anticipation of the supreme court decision about the Swiss franc mortgages, which previously caused a zloty-forint flow in the other direction," one trader said. "As the decision is being postponed once again, they are closing those positions." Poland's Supreme Court announced last Friday that a sitting concerning the issue of Swiss francs would be postponed until May 11. The Polish zloty firmed 0.09% on the day, trading at 4.5480 to the euro. Poland's central bank is set to release March net inflation data at 1200 GMT. Based on the breakdown of March inflation data, Commerzbank expects core inflation to rise, which is "bad news for the zloty exchange rate as it will shrink Poland's real interest rate in the face of unchanged monetary policy stance of the central bank." Elsewhere, the Czech crown edged up 0.08% to 25.9030 versus the common currency. The Romanian leu was flat a day after the firing of the health minister caused a political crisis, although a coalition government is expected to stay intact. Romania's central bank saw no reason to further cut its benchmark interest rate from the current 1.25% level, Governor Mugur Isarescu said in an interview. Stocks were mixed, with Budapest up 0.1% and Warsaw sliding 0.43%. Buchartest firmed 0.48%. Prague's equities were up 0.48% as Moneta Bank's shares gained 2.24% by 0912 GMT after the central bank approved an increase of PPF Group's holding in Moneta to 28.34%, the first step in a proposed merger of its local lending business with the bank. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1109 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 25.9030 25.9250 +0.08% +1.26% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 360.800 359.3000 -0.42% +0.53% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5480 4.5521 +0.09% +0.25% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9260 4.9260 +0.00% -1.24% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5630 7.5625 -0.01% -0.21% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.400 117.5500 +0.13% +0.14% dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1099.39 1094.110 +0.48% +7.03% 0 .BUX Budapes 42669.7 42626.71 +0.10% +1.33% t 0 .WIG20 Warsaw 2010.62 2019.29 -0.43% +1.34% .BETI Buchare 11174.4 11120.99 +0.48% +13.96 st 5 % .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 1041.25 1035.64 +0.54% +15.59 na > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1879.35 1882.17 -0.15% +8.05% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 760.94 750.72 +1.36% +1.65% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 513.36 514.30 -0.18% +14.71 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.6430 0.0400 +134bp +4bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 1.4130 -0.0580 +203bp -7bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 1.8510 -0.0480 +212bp -7bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.0990 -0.0020 +080bp -1bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.7860 0.0020 +140bp -1bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.4880 0.0340 +176bp +1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.45 0.64 0.90 0.36 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.96 1.14 1.26 0.79 Poland 0.25 0.26 0.34 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Additional reporting by Luiza Ilie in Bucharest; Editing by Amy Caren Daniel)

CEE MARKETS-Zloty, forint shed losses as U.S. inflation data supports sentiment

Apr 14 2021

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, April 14 The Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty on Wednesday regained some lost ground from the previous session, while other currencies held stable as the dollar eased while U.S. inflation data failed to stoke fears of immediate policy tightening. "The U.S. inflation numbers showed that there won't be a sudden jump in inflation, thus U.S. Treasury yields are stable, and that helps market sentiment," a Budapest-based trader said. Investors in the region were closely watching U.S. inflation data after rising Treasury yields put pressure on CEE bonds and currencies in February and March. The Hungarian forint edged up 0.07% to trade at 359.04 per euro after a half-percent plunge in the previous session that traders called a correction after steady gains in the past weeks. "The 200-day moving average is at 358.16 now, if the rate stays above that today, we expect a further rise in the next few days," brokerage Equilor wrote in a note. The Polish zloty was 0.18% stronger and trading at 4.5546, recouping some losses from the previous session. Central bank governor Adam Glapinski said on Wednesday that consolidation in the Polish banking sector will continue, driven also by risks related to their Swiss franc mortgage portfolios. The Czech National Bank's board will discuss how long the economy is likely to need its support and when it can begin normalising interest rates, Governor Jiri Rusnok said in an interview. Markets are betting the Czech central bank will be the first in central Europe to undo some of the massive loosening undertaken a year ago when the COVID-19 pandemic first struck. A pick-up in inflation data, published on Tuesday, backed chances of a rate hike, which helped the crown. The currency was little moved on Wednesday, trading on the stronger side of the psychological level of 26. The Czech Republic will offer three bonds at a regular auction on Wednesday. Most regional stock markets gained, tracking global stocks that firmed as U.S. inflation fears were calmed. Warsaw added 1.16% while Budapest was up 0.24%. Prague slid 0.24%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1101 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 25.9250 25.9300 +0.02 +1.17% crown > % EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 359.040 359.3000 +0.07 +1.02% forint > 0 % EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5546 4.5629 +0.18 +0.10% zloty > % EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9240 4.9229 -0.02% -1.20% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5725 7.5695 -0.04% -0.33% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.480 117.5800 +0.09 +0.08% dinar > 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1098.95 1101.540 -0.24% +6.99% 0 .BUX Budapes 42968.3 42865.63 +0.24 +2.04% t 1 % .WIG20 Warsaw 1997.73 1974.73 +1.16 +0.69% % .BETI Buchare 11171.7 11158.52 +0.12 +13.93 st 6 % % .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 1027.43 1029.90 -0.24% +14.05 na > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1881.95 1887.01 -0.27% +8.20% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 752.36 758.87 -0.86% +0.50% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 504.92 506.50 -0.31% +12.82 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs change Bund in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.6800 0.0330 +138b +3bps R 2-year R> ps CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 1.4380 -0.0510 +207b -5bps R 5-year R> ps CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 1.8860 -0.0410 +218b -4bps RR 10-year RR> ps Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.0880 -0.0030 +079b +0bps R 2-year R> ps PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.7910 -0.0160 +142b -1bps R 5-year R> ps PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.4840 -0.0230 +178b -2bps RR 10-year RR> ps FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.45 0.63 0.89 0.36 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.97 1.16 1.32 0.79 Poland 0.24 0.26 0.36 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ******************************************** ****************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

CEE MARKETS-Hungarian forint hovers around 2-month high, inflation data in focus

Apr 12 2021

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, April 12 The Hungarian forint and the Polish zloty extended gains on Monday, as supportive global sentiment helped regional currencies while markets turned their attention to the U.S. and central European inflation data due to be published this week. The Hungarian forint firmed 0.12% to 356.92 per euro, its strongest level since mid-February. "The 358-level was very strong. If it also breaks 357, there will be nothing to stop it until 355," a trader in Budapest said. "But if U.S. inflation numbers come in higher than expected tomorrow and yields rise, that could stop the forint's firming." The currency has recently been supported by a weaker dollar and a stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields, a cautious easing of lockdown measures and inflation numbers that were in line with expections, traders have said. Hungarian headline inflation for March came in at 3.7% year-on-year, as expected, data showed on Friday, but the central bank's core inflation gauge declined. Hungary's central bank is committed to buy green government bonds as part of its asset purchase programme, the bank said about a 30-year green government bond issue planned for this month. Other countries in the CEE region are reporting inflation numbers later this week. Inflation is likely to have ticked down in Romania due to base effects, but acceleration is expected in other CEE countries, Erste Bank wrote in a note. The Polish zloty was up 0.1% at 4.5315 per euro after gains last week, boosted by global developments and a change in the central bank's communication about the zloty's rate. Central bank governor Adam Glapinski said on Friday that it was too early to think about tightening monetary policy. He said inflation could exceed the upper limit of the bank's target, but that this would be temporary. The Czech crown slid 0.5% and was trading at 26.065 per euro, stuck to the weak side of the psychological 26 per level, where it fell to at the end of the last week in a correction after sharp gains. Stocks in the region were mixed, with Warsaw sliding 0.58%, Budapest down 0.1% while Prague added 0.11%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1102 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 26.0650 26.0000 -0.25% +0.63% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 356.920 357.3600 +0.12% +1.63% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5315 4.5359 +0.10% +0.61% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9205 4.9222 +0.03% -1.13% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5690 7.5785 +0.13% -0.28% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.450 117.5750 +0.11% +0.10% dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1093.08 1091.830 +0.11% +6.42% 0 .BUX Budapes 43730.8 43775.41 -0.10% +3.85% t 1 .WIG20 Warsaw 1963.72 1975.11 -0.58% -1.02% .BETI Buchare 11266.5 11242.28 +0.22% +14.90 st 8 % .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 1015.04 1013.72 +0.13% +12.68 na > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1880.85 1889.05 -0.43% +8.14% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 745.24 751.24 -0.80% -0.45% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 502.32 504.28 -0.39% +12.24 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.6750 0.0060 +139bp +2bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 1.4430 -0.0600 +209bp -4bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 1.8890 -0.0390 +221bp -1bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.1110 -0.0020 +082bp +1bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.8440 -0.0940 +149bp -7bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.5420 -0.0340 +186bp -1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.45 0.63 0.90 0.36 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 1.00 1.22 1.38 0.79 Poland 0.24 0.27 0.35 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

CEE MARKETS-FX cap week of gains; crown sags after COVID-relief rally

Apr 09 2021

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, April 9 Most Central European currencies held on to their gains on Friday after a week when they were lifted by a weaker dollar, better pandemic news and brighter investor mood globally, while the Czech crown slid in a correction. The Polish zloty added 0.14% and was trading at 4.54 per euro. The currency has been helped recently by a weaker dollar, better news about the pandemic and "an easing of the MPC's position on the zloty exchange rate being too strong," Alior Bank wrote. The Central Bank of Poland left its base rate unchanged on Wednesday and changed its language on the zloty in its statement. Poland's central bank governor holds a press conference at 1300 GMT. The zloty is also firming because "the market's nerves about the Polish FX mortgage conversion situation are calming down," Commerzbank wrote. The Hungarian forint was unmoved, trading at 358.65, as new inflation data were in line with forecasts and thus did not move the currency's rate, two traders in Budapest said. Hungarian headline inflation picked up to 3.7% year-on-year in March from 3.1% in February, driven by a significant rise in fuel, alcohol, and tobacco prices. The central bank's tax-adjusted core inflation gauge slowed to an annual 3.1% in March from 3.4% in February. The bank targets 3% headline inflation with a tolerance band of a percentage point on either side. The forint firmed near its 200-day moving average in the previous session, steadily gaining since the central bank said on March 23 that it was ready to prevent a sustained rise in inflation. A weaker dollar and the start of a gradual easing of lockdown measures also helped the forint, traders have said. The Czech crown was 0.32% weaker and trading at 25.934 to the euro, correcting back near the psychological 26 level after gaining this week as the number of new Covid-19 cases were declining. Stocks in the region were mixed, with Budapest down 0.65% while Prague and Bucharest each gained more than 0.3%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1108 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 25.9340 25.8520 -0.32% +1.14% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 358.650 358.6800 +0.01% +1.13% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5400 4.5465 +0.14% +0.42% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9215 4.9220 +0.01% -1.15% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5730 7.5735 +0.01% -0.34% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.500 117.6050 +0.09% +0.06% dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1092.13 1088.160 +0.36% +6.33% 0 .BUX Budapes 43908.7 44194.16 -0.65% +4.28% t 9 .WIG20 Warsaw 1972.31 1980.32 -0.40% -0.59% .BETI Buchare 11243.5 11206.79 +0.33% +14.66 st 7 % .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 1011.93 1011.71 +0.02% +12.33 na > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1884.22 1887.88 -0.19% +8.33% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 752.90 746.28 +0.89% +0.57% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 506.67 508.66 -0.39% +13.21 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.6830 -0.0140 +139bp -2bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 1.4440 -0.0560 +209bp -7bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 1.9130 -0.0160 +223bp -4bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.1200 0.0000 +083bp -1bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.8690 0.0180 +152bp +0bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.5850 0.0170 +190bp +0bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.45 0.63 0.89 0.36 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 1.02 1.23 1.42 0.79 Poland 0.25 0.26 0.34 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Additional reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Jason Hovet in Prague)

Hungary starts reopening despite highest daily COVID deaths, doctors flag risks

Apr 07 2021

BUDAPEST (Reuters) -Hungary began a gradual reopening of shops and services on Wednesday as encouraging vaccination numbers offset its highest daily death toll yet from the coronavirus pandemic.

CEE MARKETS-Forint, crown firm on news of gradual reopening, Polish cbank meeting eyed

Apr 07 2021

By Anita Komuves and Alan Charlish BUDAPEST/WARSAW, April 7 Central European currencies firmed on Wednesday as the dollar eased and Hungary and the Czech Republic announced the start of a gradual easing of pandemic lockdown measures. Investors were also eyeing a rate meeting in Poland later in the day, with the central bank's comments on inflation in focus after March CPI came in above expectations. The CEE region was hit especially hard by the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which had put pressure on currencies in the past weeks. The Hungarian forint was up 0.17% and trading at 360.10 per euro. "The forint will not strengthen much more in the short term, but the easing of lockdown measures gave it some impetus and helped it firm this morning," a Budapest-based trader said. Hungary's businesses and services began a gradual reopening on Wednesday after the government vaccinated more than a quarter of its 10 million people with at least a first shot. Hungary's daily coronavirus death tally jumped to a record 311 on Wednesday. Schools will reopen on April 19. Hungary has had the highest daily per capita fatalities in the world for the past few weeks, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The Czech government approved on Tuesday the start of a cautious re-opening starting from next week as the number of new cases has been declining. The Czech crown was 0.28% stronger and trading at 25.960 per euro, firming below the psyhological level of 26. The Polish government said on Wednesday that it was extending Covid-19 restrictions by over a week, until April 18. The Polish zloty was little moved ahead of a central bank rate meeting later in the day. The country's main interest rate has been at a record low of 0.1% since May and all 18 analysts polled by Reuters expected it to remain unchanged. "Since the last meeting, the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly intensified," Bank Millennium wrote. "However, in our opinion, the expectations expressed in the baseline scenario of the macroeconomic projection have not become outdated to any significant extent." Stock in the region were mixed after firming in the previous session. Warsaw and Prague each slid more than 0.4% while Budapest gained 0.28%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1058 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 25.9600 26.0330 +0.28% +1.04% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 360.100 360.7000 +0.17% +0.73% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.5898 4.5925 +0.06% -0.67% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9165 4.9165 +0.00% -1.05% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5730 7.5715 -0.02% -0.34% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.480 117.5800 +0.09% +0.08% dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1088.85 1093.890 -0.46% +6.01% 0 .BUX Budapes 44483.1 44357.86 +0.28% +5.64% t 5 .WIG20 Warsaw 2004.07 2012.87 -0.44% +1.01% .BETI Buchare 11262.9 11245.00 +0.16% +14.86 st 3 % .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 999.11 993.29 +0.59% +10.91 na > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1882.54 1875.57 +0.37% +8.24% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 744.44 742.26 +0.29% -0.56% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 503.76 501.51 +0.45% +12.56 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.6720 -0.0950 +138bp -9bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 1.4280 -0.1080 +208bp -10bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 1.8890 -0.0550 +222bp -4bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.1150 -0.0020 +082bp +0bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.8600 -0.0810 +152bp -7bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.5520 -0.0220 +188bp -1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.45 0.65 0.94 0.36 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 1.01 1.24 1.43 0.78 Poland 0.24 0.28 0.36 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Editing by Kim Coghill)

Mounting COVID-19 deaths dim Hungary's hopes of reopening

Mar 31 2021

BUDAPEST Hungary on Wednesday reported coronavirus fatalities reaching a new high and doctors described hospitals filling beyond capacity, signalling the government may be forced to postpone a reopening scheduled to begin in mid-April.

CEE MARKETS-Currencies edge down as stronger dollar, rising virus cases weigh

Mar 31 2021

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, March 31 Most Central European currencies edged down on Wednesday, with the Polish zloty set for its worst month in a year as a worsening pandemic situation and a strengthening dollar kept them under pressure. "Europe is visibly lagging behind the United States, and that is not entirely good news for the whole of central Europe. (The region) also does not like the strengthening dollar and hesitant stock market peformance," CSOB said in a note. This leaves the Czech crown with limited room for gains, they added, even as the country reports fewer daily virus cases than before. The crown was the only unit to gain in the region. A worsening pandemic situation was weighing on the zloty, pushing the currency to a nearly 12-year low on Monday. It was also under pressure by dovish central bank policy, a strong dollar and uncertainty around FX loan conversions, traders said. The currency slid 0.08% to 4.6600 per euro on Wendesday. It weakened nearly 3.2% this month, its worst month since last March when the pandemic started. Polish inflation rose sharply in March, as rising fuel prices helped drive March inflation to 3.2% year-on-year, above the 2.9% forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. Hungary's government will modify the 2021 budget to raise the deficit target to 7.5% of economic output from 6.5% as the third wave of the pandemic has hit the economy hard, Finance Minister Mihaly Varga said in an interview. The Romanian leu was 0.05% weaker, trading at 4.9260 per euro, holding stable after its biggest daily drop in two years on Monday. Stocks in the region were mixed. Prague's equities were 0.07% stronger. Czech gunmaker CZG saw shares rise 2.2% after reporting a 2020 earnings rise, an outlook for more growth, and dividend proposal. Warsaw's stocks were 0.19% down as shares in Poland's biggest video game maker CD Projekt fell more than 12% on disappointment over its strategy update. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1133 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 26.1360 26.1530 +0.07% +0.36% crown > EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 363.650 363.3500 -0.08% -0.26% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.6600 4.6565 -0.08% -2.16% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.9260 4.9235 -0.05% -1.24% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5700 7.5695 -0.01% -0.30% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.570 117.5800 +0.01% +0.00% dinar > 0 Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1092.79 1092.000 +0.07% +6.39% 0 .BUX Budapes 44705.0 44746.76 -0.09% +6.17% t 4 .WIG20 Warsaw 1938.56 1942.32 -0.19% -2.29% .BETI Buchare 11100.0 11097.03 +0.03% +13.20 st 9 % .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 990.01 989.08 +0.09% +9.90% na > .CRBEX Zagreb 1875.20 1867.90 +0.39% +7.81% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 755.68 755.33 +0.05% +0.94% 5 e 5> .SOFIX Sofia 500.08 500.02 +0.01% +11.74 % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.6540 -0.1290 +134bp -13bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 1.4930 -0.0600 +211bp -6bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 1.9270 -0.0280 +220bp -3bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.0850 -0.0040 +077bp +0bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.9490 0.1060 +156bp +10bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.6310 0.0360 +190bp +3bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.44 0.55 0.95 0.36 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.99 1.19 1.36 0.77 Poland 0.26 0.31 0.36 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Editing by Rashmi Aich)

CEE MARKETS-Zloty falls to 11-year low, pressured by pandemic and low interest rates

Mar 29 2021

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, March 29 The Polish zloty weakened to its lowest level since mid-2009 on Monday, underperforming its peers and adding to recent losses due to pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic, low interest rates and market repositioning. The zloty was down 0.37%, trading at 4.6575 per euro. The currency has been steadily weakening since February and has lost 2.11% of its value since the start of the year, making it the worst performer among its CEE peers. "The weakening is due to a bunch of local factors, which suggests that the zloty will fall further this week, as far as 4.68 or 4.7," an FX trader in Warsaw said. "The worsening pandemic situation, the most dovish central bank in the region and the uncertainty about FX loans and the strenthening of the dollar all weigh on the zloty." Commerzbank said "the unanticipated change in the Polish outlook could have triggered unwinding of long PLN-HUF positions, which resulted not only in zloty depreciation (vs. EUR), but also in forint appreciation." The Hungarian forint slid 0.1% to 362.80 per euro on Monday after firming to a four-week high at the end of the previous session. The currency has been firming since last Tuesday when the central bank left its base rate unchanged and said it was ready to prevent a sustained rise in inflation. Traders have said this helped lift the currency. The National Bank of Hungary holds an FX swap tender providing euro liquidity to banks again on Monday. The bank has said it would hold foreign currency swap tenders at the end of each quarter if needed to reduce market volatility. The Czech crown weakened 0.31% to trade at 26.140 versus the common currency. Stocks in the region were mixed. Warsaw was up 1.24% as shares of game maker CD Projekt jumped 8.11% by 0902GMT after plans about the studio's downloadable content for its Cyberpunk 2077 game leaked. Prague stocks were down 0.69% while Budapest firmed 0.61%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1059 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 26.1400 26.0580 -0.31% +0.34 crown > % EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 362.800 362.4500 -0.10% -0.02% forint > 0 EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.6575 4.6405 -0.37% -2.11% zloty > EURRON= Romania <EURRON= 4.8925 4.8856 -0.14% -0.56% n leu > EURHRK= Croatia <EURHRK= 7.5740 7.5765 +0.03% -0.35% n kuna > EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.540 117.5750 +0.03% +0.03 dinar > 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1086.91 1094.500 -0.69% +5.82 0 % .BUX Budapes 44471.7 44201.25 +0.61% +5.61 t 0 % .WIG20 Warsaw 1942.53 1918.71 +1.24% -2.09% .BETI Buchare 10978.7 10961.65 +0.16% +11.9 st 4 6% .SBITOP Ljublja <.SBITOP 983.57 979.05 +0.46% +9.18 na > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1848.27 1848.06 +0.01% +6.27 % .BELEX1 Belgrad <.BELEX1 754.83 751.83 +0.40% +0.83 5 e 5> % .SOFIX Sofia 501.13 499.91 +0.24% +11.9 8% Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs Bund change in Czech spread Republi c CZ2YT=R <CZ2YT=R 0.6710 -0.1060 +138bp -11bps R 2-year R> s CZ5YT=R <CZ5YT=R 1.4900 -0.0530 +216bp -6bps R 5-year R> s CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 1.8990 -0.0490 +224bp -7bps RR 10-year RR> s Poland PL2YT=R <PL2YT=R 0.0920 -0.0200 +081bp -3bps R 2-year R> s PL5YT=R <PL5YT=R 0.8440 -0.0170 +151bp -3bps R 5-year R> s PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.4830 0.0130 +182bp -1bps RR 10-year RR> s FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interb ank Czech 0.45 0.55 0.93 0.36 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.99 1.17 1.31 0.77 Poland 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Editing by Timothy Heritage)

CEE MARKETS-Currencies higher, forint firms most on c.bank stance

Mar 26 2021

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, March 26 Most Central European currencies firmed on Friday as the forint continued to outperform its peers, boosted by the National Bank of Hungary's (NBH) message earlier this week that it was ready to prevent a sustained rise in inflation. The Hungarian forint firmed 0.21% and was trading at 363.95 per euro, extending its gains since Tuesday when the central bank left interest rates unchanged. The NBH's message convinced investors that the bank was ready to raise the one-week deposit rate if a spike in inflation persists, which helped the forint, two traders in Budapest said. "The NBH was so convincing that the forint firmed this week despite the strengthening of the dollar," one trader said. The forint was also unfazed by a worsening third wave of the pandemic as Hungary reported a record number of new coronavirus cases and deaths on Friday and Prime Minister Viktor Orban said there was no room to loosen lockdown measures. However, rising COVID-19 cases put pressure on currencies elsewhere. The Polish zloty edged up on Friday after underperforming the region in the previous session on a surge in new cases and concerns about extended lockdown measures. The leu was little moved as Romania's government announced on Thursday the extension of a night-time curfew to stem a rise in new infections. In the Czech Republic, the number of infections have started to fall slowly as the seven-day average of daily infections fell below 8,000 for the first time since Feb. 15. However, the country's central bank warned on Wednesday after its rate meeting that it would not rush to begin raising borrowing costs as the pandemic elevated risks. The Czech crown was 0.17% stronger on the day, trading at 26.135 per euro. "Higher interest rates on the market and persisting optimism on financial markets should continue to support the crown to higher levels. On the other hand, we see a short-term risk in the strengthening dollar which does not play well for the region," Komercni Banka said in a daily trading note. Stocks were mixed, with Warsaw adding more than 1% and Prague up 0.66%. Bucharest slid 0.13%. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1159 CET CURRENC IES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close change in 2021 EURCZK= Czech <EURCZK= 26.1350 26.1800 +0.17 +0.36% crown > % EURHUF= Hungary <EURHUF= 363.950 364.7000 +0.21 -0.34% forint > 0 % EURPLN= Polish <EURPLN= 4.6365 4.6382 +0.04 -1.67% zloty > % EURRON= Romanian <EURRON= 4.8870 4.8853 -0.03% -0.45% leu > EURHRK= Croatian <EURHRK= 7.5730 7.5765 +0.05 -0.34% kuna > % EURRSD= Serbian <EURRSD= 117.420 117.5600 +0.12 +0.13% dinar > 0 % Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close change in 2021 .PX Prague 1090.47 1083.370 +0.66 +6.17% 0 % .BUX Budapest 44185.5 44168.81 +0.04 +4.93% 6 % .WIG20 Warsaw 1896.38 1876.85 +1.04 -4.42% % .BETI Buchares 10934.8 10949.06 -0.13% +11.52 t 2 % .SBITOP Ljubljan <.SBITOP 977.85 977.51 +0.03 +8.55% a > % .CRBEX Zagreb 1843.48 1846.46 -0.16% +5.99% .BELEX1 Belgrade <.BELEX1 756.05 746.14 +1.33 +0.99% 5 5> % .SOFIX Sofia 496.07 495.55 +0.10 +10.85 % % Yield Yield Spread Daily (bid) change vs change Bund in Czech spread Republic CZ2YT=R 2-year <CZ2YT=R 0.6710 -0.1130 +139b -12bps R R> ps CZ5YT=R 5-year <CZ5YT=R 1.4970 -0.0480 +218b -7bps R R> ps CZ10YT= <CZ10YT= 1.9000 0.0020 +224b -4bps RR 10-year RR> ps Poland PL2YT=R 2-year <PL2YT=R 0.0480 -0.0510 +076b -5bps R R> ps PL5YT=R 5-year <PL5YT=R 0.8290 -0.0530 +151b -7bps R R> ps PL10YT= <PL10YT= 1.4890 0.0100 +183b -3bps RR 10-year RR> ps FORWARD 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interba nk Czech 0.45 0.56 0.95 0.36 Rep <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.98 1.15 1.29 0.77 Poland 0.23 0.24 0.27 0.21 Note: are for ask FRA prices quotes ********************************************* ***************** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Ramakrishnan M.)

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