Bruno Federowski

Brazil mid-December inflation slows below 4 percent

Dec 17 2018

BRASILIA Brazil's inflation rate likely dipped below 4 percent in mid-December as consumer prices fell, a Reuters poll showed, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will hold interest rates at a record low for a long time.

Brazil central bank holds rates, hints it may take longer to hike

Dec 12 2018

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO The Brazilian central bank on Wednesday held interest rates at an all-time low, as widely expected, and hinted that it will hold off from raising them for longer than expected.

UPDATE 1-Brazil consumer prices slip more than expected in November

Dec 07 2018

(Recasts throughout) By Bruno Federowski BRASILIA, Dec 7 Brazilian consumer prices fell more than expected in November below the midpoint of the central bank's targets for both 2018 and 2019, suggesting the bank should be in no rush to lift interest rates from record lows. The benchmark IPCA index fell 0.21 percent from October, government statistics agency IBGE said on Friday, compared to the median estimate in a Reuters poll of economists for a 0.10 percent decline. It was the first decline since August, when the normalization of supply chains in the aftermath of a nationwide truckers' strike drove prices lower across the board, and the largest since June 2017. The annual inflation rate slipped to 4.05 percent from 4.39 percent in mid-November and 4.56 percent at the end of October, IBGE said. Economists expected a 4.19 percent rate, the Reuters survey showed. The central bank targets a 4.5 percent year-end rate for 2018 and 4.25 per cent for 2019, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points. While non-recurring drops in categories such as power and fuel costs accounted for much of the slowdown, underlying price pressures also remain muted as double-digit unemployment keeps a lid on wage gains. This would reinforce a perception that the central bank can take its time before hiking, maintaining support for the slow economic recovery. The bank in October kept the benchmark Selic interest rate at 6.50 percent for a fifth straight meeting and said upward risks to inflation have eased. In the minutes of that encounter, policymakers said inflation, currently at "appropriate levels," was likely to peak in the second quarter of 2019 before easing towards its target. Below is the result for each price category: November October - Food and beverages 0.39 0.59 - Housing -0.71 0.14 - Household articles 0.48 0.76 - Apparel -0.43 0.33 - Transport -0.74 0.92 - Health and personal care -0.71 0.27 - Personal expenses 0.36 0.25 - Education 0.04 0.04 - Communication -0.07 0.02 - IPCA -0.21 0.45 (Reporting by Bruno Federowski Editing by Peter Graff)

PREVIEW-Brazil's November consumer prices to slip the most since mid-2017

Dec 04 2018

* Poll data: reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=BRCPI%3DECI reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC= ****%3DECI

UPDATE 1-Brazil Q3 GDP bounces back from impact of strike, meets expectations

Nov 30 2018

BRASILIA, Nov 30 The Brazilian economy accelerated sharply in the third quarter as record-low interest rates and a one-off government-led boost helped it bounce back from the impact of a nationwide truckers' strike.

Brazil stocks to surf far-right wave past 100,000; Mexico lags: Reuters poll

Nov 28 2018

BRASILIA As a year marked by pivotal presidential elections across Latin America wraps up, a familiar strategy is gaining favor in equity trading desks: buy Brazil, sell Mexico.

Brazil economy bounces back from strike; strength may be fleeting: Reuters poll

Nov 26 2018

BRASILIA Record-low interest rates and a one-off windfall from the release of pent-up worker savings funds likely helped Brazil's economy bounce back strongly in the third quarter after a nationwide truckers' strike disrupted production earlier in the year, a Reuters poll showed.

Brazil mid-November inflation slows more than expected, below target

Nov 23 2018

BRASILIA Brazil's inflation rate has dropped more than expected below the official target's midpoint, reinforcing a view that the central bank can take its time before hiking interest rates from all-time lows.

Brazil mid-November inflation slows below target's midpoint

Nov 19 2018

BRASILIA Lower fuel costs likely helped to bring Brazil's mid-November inflation rate back below the official target's midpoint, the latest Reuters poll shows, bolstering the view that a recent price spike was more a blip than a consistent upward trend.

UPDATE 1-Brazil Oct inflation accelerates less than expected

Nov 07 2018

(Recasts throughout with details, context) By Bruno Federowski BRASILIA, Nov 7 Brazil's inflation rate accelerated less than expected in October, bolstering the case for the central bank to wait longer before hiking interest rates. Consumer prices tracked by the benchmark IPCA index rose 4.56 percent in the 12 months through October, government statistics agency IBGE said on Wednesday, barely above the 4.53 percent mid-October rate. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 4.66 percent increase. Even that smaller-than-expected headline number likely overstates inflationary pressures. Much of the increase stemmed from higher food and energy prices, notoriously volatile categories which are not very sensitive to monetary policy. So-called core inflation, which strips the index of volatile components, is hovering around 3.5 percent, far below the central bank's 4.5 percent target for 2018 and 4.25 percent for 2019. That is likely to allow the bank to keep rates at an all-time low in the short term, adding support to an underwhelming economic recovery. The IPCA index rose 0.45 percent from September, IBGE said, compared to a median 0.55 percent estimate. Below is the result for each price category: October September - Food and beverages 0.59 0.10 - Housing 0.14 0.37 - Household articles 0.76 0.11 - Apparel 0.33 -0.02 - Transport 0.92 1.69 - Health and personal care 0.27 0.28 - Personal expenses 0.25 0.38 - Education 0.04 0.24 - Communication 0.02 -0.07 - IPCA 0.45 0.48 (Reporting by Bruno Federowski Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

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