FBI investigations, sexual assault accusations – the last month of this campaign has been a wild one. But as with most elections, most voters made up their minds fairly early in the process. And these news events serve primarily to heighten or dampen enthusiasm among supporters.
It looks like this absurd and lurid presidential election will remain unpredictable until the end. Between the FBI’s on-again, off-again investigations of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s private email server, the “you can do anything” comments about women from Republican rival Donald Trump — not to mention the unexpected injection of Anthony Weiner’s sexting habits — it’s hardly surprising that the polls seem to show wild swings in voters’ views.
Two weeks out from Election Day and it looks like the race for the White House is all but over. However, if it looks like pollsters are increasingly on the wrong side of history (Colombia’s referendum, Brexit, the 2015 British election and the Scottish referendum) it could be because they need to triple and quadruple check their assumptions before making blithe pronouncements. This is that type of thought exercise.
Donald Trump has a man problem. No, not what you think — this is not about sexist remarks or boorish behavior.
Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition.