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David Henry

Yen rebound resumes, Aussie gains, as markets weigh risk from COVID-19 wave

Nov 13 2020

NEW YORK The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc strengthened on Friday, as the threat of a new COVID-19 wave in the United States and Europe chilled the increased risk appetite that had been driven by promising vaccine news earlier this week.

FOREX-Yen rebound resumes, Aussie gains, as currency markets weigh risk from COVID wave

Nov 13 2020

* Yen recovers some of week's losses * Dollar slips as vaccine rally peters out * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (Updates prices, adds comment) By David Henry NEW YORK, Nov 13 The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc strengthened on Friday, as the threat of a new COVID-19 wave in the United States and Europe chilled the increased risk appetite that had been driven by promising vaccine news earlier this week. At 104.72 yen, the dollar had lost 0.32% against the Japanese currency on Friday morning in New York. The yen dropped around 2% versus the dollar on Monday. The Swiss franc firmed to 0.9132 against the dollar, after trading at 0.9192 mid-week. The dollar slipped 0.18% against a basket of currencies . Global markets surged on Monday after Pfizer Inc said its experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in trials. The news saw the dollar rise as traders quit their long-yen positions. But currency market traders became more risk-averse on Thursday and Friday as infections spread and the heads of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) stressed that the economic outlook remains uncertain. "It is tough to have a sustained run of optimism when virus cases continue to mount," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions. "The market sees light at the end of the tunnel, but we're still in the tunnel." Despite the pullback, the yen was still on track for its worst week since September. The euro was up 0.17% at $1.1824. The prospect of a vaccine is a source of relief but the euro zone will still suffer as a result of new lockdown measures, two ECB policymakers also said. But the Australian dollar - a liquid proxy for risk and global economic growth- picked up. It was up 0.26% on the day at 0.7251 versus the dollar. "The prospect of the Fed staying super-easy through the winter and beyond, while vaccine optimism, builds is dollar bearish," Kit Juckes, an FX strategist at Societe Generale, wrote in a note. "The big winners in the longer-run are the higher-beta, growth and trade-sensitive currencies," he said. The New Zealand dollar was down 0.06% versus the dollar at 0.6834, but still up on the week after jumping to its highest since March 2019 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's meeting on Wednesday. Germany's health minister said on Friday that it was too early to say how long the latest lockdown would last, while the French prime minister said France's measures would not be eased for at least two weeks. Elsewhere, President-elect Joe Biden won the battleground state of Arizona late on Thursday, but President Donald Trump still refuses to accept defeat. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:48AM (1448 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Dollar index $92.7910 92.9680 -0.18% +0.00% +93.0070 +92.7670 Euro/Dollar $1.1824 $1.1804 +0.17% +5.47% +1.1834 +1.1800 Dollar/Yen 104.7200 105.1050 -0.32% -3.55% +105.1450 +104.6950 Euro/Yen 123.81 124.11 -0.24% +1.53% +124.3000 +123.7700 Dollar/Swiss 0.9132 0.9152 -0.17% -5.59% +0.9159 +0.9128 Sterling/Dollar 1.3165 1.3124 +0.33% -0.72% +1.3186 +1.3112 Dollar/Canadian 1.3132 1.3145 -0.10% +1.09% +1.3170 +1.3116 Aussie/Dollar 0.7251 0.7233 +0.26% +3.35% +0.7264 +0.7222 Euro/Swiss 1.0797 1.0801 -0.04% -0.51% +1.0816 +1.0791 Euro/Sterling 0.8980 0.9000 -0.22% +6.21% +0.9005 +0.8968 NZ 0.6834 0.6839 -0.06% +1.58% +0.6843 +0.6811 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 9.1415 9.1755 -0.29% +4.30% +9.1895 +9.1400 Euro/Norway 10.8100 10.8287 -0.17% +9.88% +10.8537 +10.8070 Dollar/Sweden 8.6743 8.6413 +0.52% -7.20% +8.6890 +8.6200 Euro/Sweden 10.2567 10.2040 +0.52% -2.03% +10.2705 +10.1988 (Reporting by David Henry in New York and Elizabeth Howcroft in London; Editing by Alex Richardson)

Dollar flat, euro bumps higher as sentiment see-saws

Nov 12 2020

NEW YORK The dollar held steady on Thursday as investors were cautious over expectations about a COVID-19 vaccine that is unlikely to avert a grim winter in the United States and Europe as the pandemic's latest wave intensifies.

FOREX-Dollar flat, euro bumps higher as sentiment see-saws

Nov 12 2020

* Dollar index still up nearly 0.75% this week * World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E By David Henry NEW YORK, Nov 12 The dollar held steady on Thursday as investors were cautious over expectations about a COVID-19 vaccine that is unlikely to avert a grim winter in the United States and Europe as the pandemic's latest wave intensifies. The dollar index was up 0.01% in the morning in New York, after having rebounded a little in London from lows during Asia trading. The latest U.S. weekly jobless claims report did not budge the dollar when it came out on Thursday morning. The report showed the pace of decline in claims had slowed to 709,000 compared with 757,000 the prior week and forecasts for 735,000 claims. U.S. stocks fell, with the S&P 500 dropping about 0.5% in early New York trading. U.S. Treasury yields slumped, in line with Europe, weighed down by the rise in coronavirus cases around the world and data showing inflation going nowhere in the United States. In midmorning trading, U.S. benchmark 10-year yields were down at 0.917% Euro bond yields fell slightly earlier in the day. Larger moves were being held in check as investors awaited speeches at midday in New York trading from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at a virtual central banking forum. "There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. While prices are not charting a new direction, nervousness stems from the outlook for the coronavirus pandemic, central banks' future interest rate policies and the transition from last week's U.S. presidential elections, Chandler said. The questions come amid possibly shifting views about the U.S. dollar's role as a safe haven or as a ticket to gains from a strengthening global economy, he said. The euro bumped higher by 0.14% to $1.1796. The euro is trying to find its feet "after the vaccine-related storm of activity at the start of the week, and after the U.S. election news," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank. The euro, Chandler noted, has been trading between $1.16 and $1.20 since late July. "Being in the middle of a range makes nobody happy. Bulls nor bears can be happy," he said. Europe is grappling with surging infections and new COVID-19 restrictions, with Germany's economic advisers trimming next year's growth outlook. In the United States, cases continue to hit record levels. The dollar's strength in the past week has for now put the brakes on a long drop for the greenback, which had shed about 10% against a basket of currencies between March and the announcement of progress on Pfizer Inc's COVID-19 vaccine on Monday. Earlier in Asia, the New Zealand dollar made a fresh 20-month high versus the U.S. dollar as traders became less convinced that negative rates are a sure thing for New Zealand. Along with the virus, Republican U.S. President Donald Trump's refusal to concede defeat to Democrat Joe Biden in last week's election is also beginning to jangle investors' nerves. The dollar gained 0.6% against the Canadian dollar $1.314 Sterling licked its wounds as trade talks between Britain and the European Union seemed set to drag on past yet another deadline, raising the prospect that no trade deal may be reached before Brexit transition arrangements end on Dec. 31. The British currency last traded 0.5% lower to the dollar at $1.3149. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:50AM (1450 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Dollar index $92.9910 92.9910 +0.01% +0.00% +93.1390 +92.7710 Euro/Dollar $1.1796 $1.1779 +0.14% +5.22% +1.1823 +1.1759 Dollar/Yen 105.2250 105.6400 -0.44% -3.16% +105.4750 +105.1600 Euro/Yen 124.11 124.15 -0.03% +1.77% +124.5000 +123.6900 Dollar/Swiss 0.9148 0.9169 -0.21% -5.44% +0.9170 +0.9133 Sterling/Dollar 1.3149 1.3223 -0.55% -0.85% +1.3227 +1.3133 Dollar/Canadian 1.3140 1.3062 +0.60% +1.15% +1.3141 +1.3059 Aussie/Dollar 0.7254 0.7281 -0.35% +3.40% +0.7293 +0.7247 Euro/Swiss 1.0791 1.0797 -0.06% -0.56% +1.0808 +1.0782 Euro/Sterling 0.8968 0.8905 +0.71% +6.08% +0.8990 +0.8905 NZ 0.6868 0.6883 -0.22% +2.07% +0.6914 +0.6856 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 9.1030 9.0875 +0.18% +3.78% +9.1375 +9.0850 Euro/Norway 10.7390 10.7060 +0.31% +9.16% +10.7760 +10.6760 Dollar/Sweden 8.6235 8.6211 -0.10% -7.74% +8.6709 +8.5973 Euro/Sweden 10.1701 10.1800 -0.10% -2.85% +10.2010 +10.1580 (Reporting by David Henry in New York and Ritvik Carvalho in London; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Dollar rises again as markets adjust to vaccine hope and higher yields

Nov 11 2020

NEW YORK The U.S. dollar rose and the safe-haven yen weakened again on Wednesday as markets continued to adjust to higher interest rates and prospects for economic growth following news on Monday of encouraging results for a coronavirus vaccine.

FOREX-Dollar rises again as markets adjust to vaccine hope and higher yields

Nov 11 2020

* Euro falls to lowest vs US dollar in a week * New Zealand dollar hits strongest since March 2019 * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (Recasts, adds comment, updates prices) By David Henry NEW YORK, Nov 11 The U.S. dollar rose and the safe-haven yen weakened again on Wednesday as the markets continued to adjust to higher interest rates and prospects for economic growth following news on Monday of encouraging results for a coronavirus vaccine. The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar in a week as yields on U.S. bonds rise compared with those on European bonds. And, the New Zealand dollar soared to its strongest in a year and a half as traders scaled back bets that the central bank there would move to negative interest rates. The dollar has started moving up with gains in equities in a switch from its safe-haven status during the COVID-19 crisis when it tended to move in the opposite direction, said Erik Nelson, macro strategist at Wells Fargo Securities. "This is a huge change from what we've seen over the past few months," said Nelson. "The increase we've seen in U.S. yields could be a really important inflection point for seeing that equity-dollar relationship to evolve," Nelson said. "When you look at real or nominal yields, it's really becoming increasingly attractive to own dollars rather than euros." The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose to 0.972% on Wednesday, up from 0.82% on Friday. The dollar was up 0.5% on Wednesday against a basket of currencies after a flat day on Tuesday and a rise of 0.5% on Monday. Tuesday's pause in the dollar's move showed continued restraint and caution about how beneficial the new vaccine will be and when. Coronavirus cases are increasing daily in the U.S. and Europe. "People are taking a little more prescripted approach to the vaccine. The news is undoubtedly positive, but of course we need to delve into the detail and think about the ramifications of the whole process," said Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. "We need to remember that this is a vaccine which is unproven in terms of certification." The euro was down 0.5% on the day to $1.175 against the dollar. The U.S. dollar rose 0.3% to 105.59 versus the Japanese yen. "With the global daily infections from the coronavirus accelerating yesterday, it seems that concerns over the pandemic's economic impact may have limited further gains in equities and other risk-linked assets," said Charalambos Pissouros, senior market analyst at JFD Group. "It is still too early to start cheering that the COVID era is behind us," he said. The dollar gained 0.7% against the trade-sensitive Norwegian crown to 9.087. The Aussie dollar fell 0.3% to 0.7263. Sentiment for the dollar got a boost on Monday after Pfizer Inc and BioNTech said on Monday their experimental coronavirus vaccine was 90% effective. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 10:12AM (1512 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Dollar index $93.1520 92.7260 +0.47% +0.00% +93.2000 +92.6070 Euro/Dollar $1.1753 $1.1812 -0.50% +4.83% +1.1833 +1.1746 Dollar/Yen 105.5900 105.2650 +0.26% -2.84% +105.5900 +105.0200 Euro/Yen 124.08 124.36 -0.23% +1.75% +124.6700 +123.9300 Dollar/Swiss 0.9180 0.9151 +0.33% -5.12% +0.9192 +0.9139 Sterling/Dollar 1.3207 1.3276 -0.53% -0.43% +1.3314 +1.3205 Dollar/Canadian 1.3058 1.3036 +0.21% +0.56% +1.3075 +1.3010 Aussie/Dollar 0.7263 0.7287 -0.32% +3.53% +0.7318 +0.7262 Euro/Swiss 1.0787 1.0809 -0.20% -0.60% +1.0824 +1.0783 Euro/Sterling 0.8896 0.8900 -0.04% +5.23% +0.8919 +0.8862 NZ 0.6867 0.6832 +0.53% +2.07% +0.6903 +0.6809 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 9.0870 9.0235 +0.73% +3.62% +9.0995 +8.9780 Euro/Norway 10.6815 10.6467 +0.33% +8.58% +10.6955 +10.6067 Dollar/Sweden 8.6595 8.6106 +0.03% -7.36% +8.6744 +8.6003 Euro/Sweden 10.1773 10.1740 +0.03% -2.79% +10.1955 +10.1650 (Reporting by David Henry in New York and Olga Cotaga in London Editing by Nick Zieminski)

Dollar flat, yen near three-week lows after vaccine news

Nov 10 2020

NEW YORK The dollar was steady on Tuesday and the yen stayed near three-weeks lows, as investors remained optimistic about progress toward a COVID-19 vaccine and the currency markets digested Monday's big moves.

FOREX-Dollar flat, currency markets hold moves after vaccine news

Nov 10 2020

* Dollar stabilises after gaining on vaccine news * Yen trades near Monday levels * Swiss franc recovers some losses * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (Updates prices, adds commentary) By David Henry NEW YORK, Nov 10 The dollar was steady on Tuesday and the yen stayed low, as investors remained optimistic about progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine and the currency markets digested the big moves of Monday. U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc and German partner BioNTech SE said on Monday a large-scale clinical trial showed their vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19 - news which lifted global markets with a wave of risk appetite. The dollar's rise on Monday of 0.5%, analysts said, was caused by investors quitting long positions in other major safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. The dollar was flat against a basket of major currencies, near its previous session's highs, as market participants declined to push it further in light of uncertainty about how or when a vaccine could be rolled out. "Today is a little bit of a cool off from what we've seen in this past couple of days," said Minh Trang, senior FX trader at Silicon Valley Bank. "I don't mind a little bit of a breather. November has been very, very interesting." Neil Jones, head of FX sales for financial institutions at Mizuho, said he expected the risk-on moves to hold. "I don’t think it’s over and don’t think the foreign exchange market will become completely skeptical," he said. "We need more clarity in terms of the distribution, quantities, timeline, and to whom," Jones said. "On balance, that optimism will remain for now." The dollar had lost around 1.4% this month until Democrat Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election became apparent over the weekend. The Japanese yen, which had its biggest one-day fall since March after the vaccine announcement, was little changed Tuesday morning in New York at 105.34 yen to the dollar. The yen had initially clawed back some of its from the day before. The Swiss franc gained marginally, with the dollar rising 0.1% to 0.915 francs after Monday's 1.5% gain. "Following a euphoric market reaction such as that the question that now arises is whether it was justified or possibly exaggerated," wrote Commerzbank FX and EM analyst You-Na Park-Heger in a note to clients. Euro-dollar was broadly flat at $1.1813. In the previous session, it rose to as high as $1.192, but went no further, which Mizuho's Jones said could be due to the European Central Bank having signalled its awareness of the downsides of rapid euro strength. "The market is a little bit concerned about repeat verbal intervention in the euro around the 1.20 area so I think sellers maybe dropped their offers down lower than that 1.20, thinking that that might be the limit of the upside," Jones said. The Australian dollar - seen as a liquid proxy for risk appetite - was off nearly 0.3% versus the dollar, giving back its jump in the immediate aftermath of the vaccine news.. The New Zealand dollar was off 0.1% and poised to end its streak of seven consecutive session of gains . China's offshore yuan, which has been gradually strengthening since May, was flat on Tuesday after hitting 2.5-year highs versus the U.S. dollar on Monday.. President Donald Trump plans to push ahead with legal challenges to the election results and will hold a series of campaign-style rallies to build support. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:57AM (1457 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.1813 $1.1814 +0.00% +5.38% +1.1843 +1.1780 Dollar/Yen 105.3400 105.3600 -0.10% -3.10% +105.4800 +104.8300 Euro/Yen 124.43 124.45 -0.02% +2.03% +124.5200 +124.0000 Dollar/Swiss 0.9151 0.9138 +0.12% -5.46% +0.9175 +0.9116 Sterling/Dollar 1.3261 1.3162 +0.76% -0.01% +1.3271 +1.3154 Dollar/Canadian 1.3018 1.3007 +0.10% +0.22% +1.3050 +1.2998 Aussie/Dollar 0.7262 0.7282 -0.27% +3.49% +0.7294 +0.7253 Euro/Swiss 1.0808 1.0787 +0.19% -0.41% +1.0822 +1.0783 Euro/Sterling 0.8905 0.8971 -0.74% +5.33% +0.8983 +0.8885 NZ 0.6808 0.6817 -0.12% +1.19% +0.6839 +0.6808 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 8.9995 9.0340 -0.40% +2.58% +9.0535 +8.9970 Euro/Norway 10.6322 10.6685 -0.34% +8.07% +10.6992 +10.6150 Dollar/Sweden 8.6192 8.6282 -0.01% -7.80% +8.6527 +8.6025 Euro/Sweden 10.1820 10.1835 -0.01% -2.74% +10.2145 +10.1759 (Reporting by David Henry in New York and Elizabeth Howcroft in London; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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