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Eileen Soreng

PRECIOUS-Gold set to extend weekly fall on stimulus doubts, vaccine hopes

Nov 20 2020

* Gold's move above $2,000 in 2021 still likely- Citi * Outflows of about 40 tonnes so far in November from SPDR ETF * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Adds comments, updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 20 Gold was set for a second weekly fall on Friday as promising COVID-19 vaccine trials and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's call to end the Federal Reserve's key pandemic lending programmes eroded bullion's safe-haven appeal. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,866.19 per ounce by 0832 GMT and was down 1.1% for the week. U.S. gold futures were up 0.2% at $1,865.40. In a letter, Mnuchin told Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that $455 billion allocated to the Treasury under the CARES Act should be instead available for Congress to reallocate, sparking uncertainty about stimulus programmes. "If the Fed does start shrinking its assistance programme that could be a bit of headwind for gold again... The monetary debasement argument that has supported gold could weaken," said Lachlan Shaw, National Australia Bank's head of commodity research. Meanwhile, data from AstraZeneca and Oxford University showed their potential COVID-19 vaccine produced a strong immune response in older adults. "Positive COVID-19 vaccine developments should slow but not end the secular gold bull cycle without a hawkish pivot in U.S. monetary policy," Citi Research said in a note, adding gold's move above $2,000 in 2021 is still likely. [nFWN2I51F7 Indicative of sentiment, holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund saw net outflows of about 40 tonnes so far in November. Investors pulled $4 billion from gold, the biggest outflows ever, amid a rush for riskier assets last week, BofA said on Friday. Gold, considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, has gained 23% this year, benefiting mainly from unprecedented stimulus unveiled to cushion the pandemic's impact. "Gold's long-term story still remains uncompromised because the monetary policy is not going to change anytime soon," said Kunal Shah, head of research at Nirmal Bang Commodities in Mumbai, India. Silver rose 0.3% to $24.17 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.6% to $957.00, while palladium was up 0.3% at $2,332.50. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Ramakrishnan M. and Subhranshu Sahu and Elaine Hardcastle)

PRECIOUS-Gold at 1-week low as hopes rise of more rapid economic recovery

Nov 19 2020

* U.S. weekly initial jobless claim data due 1330 GMT * GRAPHIC: Tracking the vaccine race https://tmsnrt.rs/3nGrJoP * Graphic tracking world spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Recasts, adds comments, updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 19 Gold retreated to a one-week low on Thursday as encouraging developments relating to COVID-19 vaccines have raised hopes of a more rapid recovery in the global economy, even as new coronavirus cases continued to rise. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,863.12 per ounce by 0759 GMT, having earlier hit its lowest since Nov.11, at $1,857.16, putting it on course for a second straight weekly decline. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.6% to $1,862.30. "Post the U.S. election, there is confidence in the global economy and gold's safe-haven appeal has been easing. Secondly, pandemic-related uncertainty is going to be decreasing because we're all hoping for the vaccine in the market soon," said Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Financial Services. COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc could be ready for U.S. authorisation within weeks, setting the stage for inoculation to begin as soon as this year, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said on Wednesday. Also weighing on gold, the dollar index was up 0.2%. Gold is still up about 23% this year, boosted by its appeal as a hedge against likely inflation and currency debasement that may follow the unprecedented stimulus measures globally. "In the short-term, (gold) prices may continue to drift lower towards $1,800. We expect the next leg of the bull market to resume next month or January 2021," said Vincent Tie, sales manager at Silver Bullion. Increased coronavirus-driven restrictions in the United States, where the death toll crossed 250,000, caused Asian equities to fall from record highs, while bonds were buoyed by growing bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve may fill in the gap as uncertainties persist over a fiscal relief bill. Investors are waiting for U.S. jobs data at 1330 GMT for evidence on the state of the economy. Silver fell 1% to $24.08 per ounce. Platinum dipped 0.6% to $936.54, while palladium eased 0.4% to $2,319.10. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng, Diptendu Lahiri and Asha Sistla in Bengaluru; Editing by Ramakrishnan M. and Jane Merriman)

PRECIOUS-Gold range-bound, caught between vaccine hopes and rising virus cases

Nov 18 2020

* Fed's Powell says "long way to go" for economy to recover * Platinum market in deficit this year and next- WPIC * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Adds comments, updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 18 Gold inched up and moved in a narrow range on Wednesday, as investors weighed the prospects of a COVID-19 vaccine against concerns over rising cases and the possibility of further economic support from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,880.81 per ounce by 0707 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.4% at $1,878.30. Gold shed as much as 1.3% on Monday after Moderna said its vaccine was 94.5% effective in a late-stage trial. "There's a lack of catalyst for gold to rally ... Weighing on prices is a slight depression in inflation expectations because it's quite clear now that the U.S. fiscal stimulus will probably not be as sizeable as previously imagined," said IG Markets analyst Kyle Rodda. The emphasis is now on the Fed to support the U.S. economy through the surge in coronavirus cases, he added. Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday there's "a long way to go" for the economy to recover and that the central bank is committed to using all its tools to support the recovery. Meanwhile, data showed U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in October. "Gold has clearly run out of upward momentum, with the short-term market clearly long," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, adding, a daily close below key support around the $1,867 level could signal a deeper correction. "I expect monetary policy globally, and especially from the Fed to be ultra-easy right through 2021." Gold, considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, has gained over 24% this year, mainly benefiting from massive global stimulus. Silver rose 0.1% to $24.48 per ounce and palladium was up 0.3% to $2,323.74. Platinum gained 0.6% to $930.40. The World Platinum Investment Council projected a market deficit of 1.2 million ounces and 224,000 ounces in 2020 and 2021, respectively. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

PRECIOUS-Gold dips as vaccine hopes offset softer dollar, virus woes

Nov 17 2020

* Fresh restrictions in several U.S. states after virus surge * Asian shares rally, dollar subdued * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 17 Gold prices eased on Tuesday as market optimism over a second possible COVID-19 vaccine countered a subdued dollar and concerns over rising coronavirus cases globally. Spot gold eased 0.1% to $1,886.83 per ounce by 0744 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.1% to $1,885.40. "The optimism over a COVID-19 vaccine is dampening demand for the precious metal," said FXTM market analyst Han Tan. While a Democrat-driven agenda in the U.S. Senate may result in larger fiscal stimulus and thereby boost gold, a vaccine-fuelled U.S. economic recovery may re-energize the dollar and push gold to sub-$1,850 levels, Tan added. Propping up bullion, the dollar index was down 0.1%. Gold dropped as much as 1.3% on Monday after Moderna said its vaccine was 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19 based on interim data from a late-stage trial, becoming the second U.S. drugmaker after Pfizer to report results exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, Asian shares pushed into record territory on vaccine optimism. However, the monetary environment is still very accommodative and may stay at current levels into spring 2021, providing near-term support for gold, said Margaret Yang, strategist at DailyFX. Gold, considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, has gained over 24% this year, mainly benefiting from global stimulus to cushion the effect of the pandemic. President-elect Joe Biden called on Congress to pass a new coronavirus relief package, while new restrictions were placed in several U.S. states to curb surging cases. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida on Monday acknowledged the new vaccine as a positive for economic recovery and said that the central bank would apply an expansive view of the labour market before deciding on any rate hikes. Silver fell 0.7% to $24.57 per ounce. Platinum slipped 0.7% to $918.76, while palladium eased 0.4% to $2,322.76. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Devika Syamnath)

Gold dips as vaccine hopes offset soft dollar, virus woes

Nov 17 2020

Gold prices eased on Tuesday as market optimism over a second possible COVID-19 vaccine countered a subdued dollar and concerns over rising coronavirus cases globally.

PRECIOUS-Gold steadies on softer dollar, rising coronavirus cases

Nov 16 2020

* U.S. Fed Vice Chair Clarida to speak at 1900 GMT * Dollar touches one-week low, equities rally * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Recasts, adds comment, updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 16 Gold steadied near a one-week high on Monday as the dollar weakened, with concerns over mounting coronavirus cases offsetting a risk rally driven by optimism over a vaccine. Spot gold was little changed at $1,889.01 per ounce by 0743 GMT, having earlier hit its highest level since Nov. 9 at $1,898.81. U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,886.70. The dollar index hit a one-week trough, while Asian equities hit a record high. Coronavirus cases crossed the 11-million mark in the United States on Sunday, prompting new restrictions in Michigan and Washington, while President-elect Joe Biden's top advisers called for urgent action to address the crisis. "There still are underlying problems in structural economies, with job creation being the biggest problem," said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at financial services firm Axi, adding that action from governments and central banks was needed to stimulate economies. New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said on Friday the U.S. economy is still in a "deep hole" and rising infections could slow growth. Several Fed policymakers are scheduled to give speeches this week, beginning with Vice Chair Richard Clarida at 1900 GMT at a virtual talk hosted by the Brookings Institution. "Comments from bankers may not be sufficient to rally gold markets to the heights experienced earlier in the year, a dose of fiscal or monetary stimulus may however be effective," Avtar Sandu, senior commodities manager at Phillip Futures, said in a note. Gold, which tends to benefit from stimulus measures from central banks as it is considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, has gained over 24% this year. Prices fell 3.3% last week after Pfizer said its experimental COVID-19 vaccine was over 90% effective based on initial trial results. Silver rose 1.1% to $24.89 per ounce. Platinum gained 1.2% to $899.37, while palladium was 0.9% higher at $2,343.90. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Devika Syamnath)

PRECIOUS-Gold supported by rising COVID-19 cases after vaccine hit

Nov 13 2020

* Spot gold down 3.7% for the week * Silver down 5% for the week * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Recasts, adds quotes, updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 13 Although fears over the economic fallout from mounting COVID-19 cases supported prices on Friday, gold was headed for its biggest weekly loss since September after positive news about a potential vaccine. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,879.20 per ounce by 0814 GMT, but was down 3.7% for the week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $1,878.20. Gold slumped 4.6% on Monday after Pfizer said its experimental COVID-19 vaccine was over 90% effective based on initial trial results. "Investors may also be wary of other companies announcing trial data in the coming weeks, which if successful, could put more downward pressure on gold," Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, adding, gold will struggle to reclaim $1,900. The vaccine optimism has been tempered by spike in cases in the U.S. and Europe. ED&F Man Capital Markets analyst Edward Meir said people were realising that a significant roll-out of a vaccine will take time, while the need for relief is immediate. A Reuters tally showed novel coronavirus cases soared by more than 100% in 13 U.S. states in the past two weeks, while the global tally crossed 52.45 million, underpinning the need for more stimulus. Top Democrats in the U.S. Congress urged renewed talks over a multi-trillion dollar aid proposal, but a top Republican immediately rejected this as too expensive. "The fact that there isn't a stimulus coming seems to be keeping a lid on it (gold)... If Congress actually comes up with a limited package, that would be beneficial," Meir added. Gold tends to benefit from stimulus measures from central banks as it is considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement, which has driven a rise of about 24% this year. Silver rose 0.4% to $24.32. Platinum was up 1% at $888.30, while palladium was 0.5% higher at $2,343.84. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Uttaresh.V, Devika Syamnath and Alexander Smith)

PRECIOUS-Gold firms as virus concerns eclipse vaccine optimism

Nov 12 2020

* Gold stuck in $1,850-$1,890 range- analyst * U.S. weekly jobless claims data due at 1330 GMT * Investors eye Moderna vaccine data * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: * https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Adds comments, updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 12 Gold edged up on Thursday as concerns over the economic fallout from surging COVID-19 cases outweighed positive developments surrounding a vaccine. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,865.96 per ounce by 0820 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 0.3% higher at $1,866.90. But prices have declined 4.5% so far this week after Monday's encouraging late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial data from Pfizer Inc powered risk assets and sent safe-haven gold sharply lower. "Gold traders are trying to strike a balance between positive vaccine news and a rising number of coronavirus cases around the globe," said Margaret Yang, a strategist with DailyFx, which covers currency, commodity and index trading. "I don't think the central banks and governments will cut back on stimulus efforts before the pandemic is fully under control." European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde signalled further economic support on Wednesday, with cases expected to spike amid the onset of winter. Gold tends to benefit from widespread stimulus measures from central banks as it is considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. "The intensifying second coronavirus wave is likely to delay the economic recovery process, raising the level of uncertainty and supporting the precious metal," said Hitesh Jain, lead analyst at Mumbai-based Yes Securities. Investors also awaited Moderna Inc's data on its experimental COVID-19 vaccine, which it is preparing to submit to an independent safety board to help determine its efficacy. Also, weekly U.S. jobless claims data due at 1330 GMT is likely to offer further signals on the health of the world's largest economy. Gold remains range-bound between $1,850 and $1,890, though it continues to see solid support on dips, notably from sticky longer-term holders and physical names, MKS PAMP said in a note. Silver fell 0.7% to $24.07 an ounce. Platinum was steady at $865.21 and palladium climbed 0.9% to $2,335.94. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng and Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich, Ramakrishan M. and Devika Syamnath)

PRECIOUS-Gold inches up on muted dollar, mounting virus cases

Nov 11 2020

* Curbs tighten in many U.S. Midwest states after virus cases rise * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Adds comments, updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 11 Gold edged up on Wednesday, buoyed by a softer dollar as investors weighed the logistical challenges surrounding the mass roll-out of a potential COVID-19 vaccine, with a surge in new infections boosting bets of further economic support. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,878.54 per ounce by 0721 GMT. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,876.40. The dollar index was down 0.1%, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. "Coronavirus cases continue to rise in U.S. and Europe and we will require further monetary and fiscal measures... In that sense, the overall backdrop for gold has not turned negative," said Harshal Barot, senior research consultant for South Asia at Metals Focus. "But since risk sentiment has improved, we are going to see certain liquidations coming in." Federal Reserve policymakers said on Tuesday that surging coronavirus cases threatened to slow U.S. economic growth once more in coming months and that more targeted government aid was needed. California and several states across the U.S. Midwest tightened restrictions again as infections spiked. Spot gold fell 4.6% on Monday, its biggest daily fall since Aug. 11, after drugmaker Pfizer said its COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective based on initial trial results, boosting risk appetite. However, the breakthrough has brought to light the logistical challenges of distributing hundreds of millions of doses once it becomes available. "As people become more aware about the dimensions or the details of the vaccine, that (equities) rally could wane," said Michael Langford, executive director at corporate advisory and consultancy firm AirGuide. Meanwhile, concerns rose about a rough transition of power in the United States as President Donald Trump pursued a flurry of lawsuits challenging the election results. Silver rose 0.3% to $24.29 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.3% to $885.45, while palladium was up 0.4% at$2,463.64. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Devika Syamnath)

PRECIOUS-Gold gains more than 1% as focus returns to loose monetary policy

Nov 10 2020

* Spot gold may test resistance at $1,879/oz - technicals * Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus: https://tmsnrt.rs/3mvcUoa (Adds comment, adds technicals, updates prices) By Eileen Soreng Nov 10 Gold jumped more than 1% on Tuesday, following a sharp slide in the last session, as focus returned to the likelihood of more monetary stimulus to revive a global economy still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. Spot gold had risen 1.4% to $1,888.51 per ounce by 0826 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were 1.7% lower at$1,886.40. Prices slumped as much as 5.2% on Monday after U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc said its experimental COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective based on initial trial results. "There remains major doubts over the timeline of the vaccine's global rollout and its true efficacy and such doubts may keep gold prices supported until there is more clarity," said FXTM market analyst Han Tan. "Negative U.S. real yields as well as prospects of further monetary policy easing could still inject fresh tailwinds into the precious metal's sails." While vaccine optimism boosted risk appetite, concerns emerged over its mass roll-out and uncertainties continued to loom over the impact of surging COVID-19 cases globally. Gold tends to benefit from widespread stimulus as it is considered a hedge against inflation and currency debasement. "If inflation expectations pick up as a result of increased economic activity from the vaccine, that should keep a lid on long U.S. real yields and be a supporting driver for gold," said Lachlan Shaw, head of commodity research at National Australia Bank. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Monday the resurgence of COVID-19 poses risks to the economy, while Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the Fed's emergency lending programs are still needed. Spot gold is likely to test resistance at $1,879, a break above which could push it to $1,894, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said. Silver gained 1.2% to $24.36 per ounce. Platinum climbed 1.3% to $877.28 and palladium rose 0.3% to $2,485.68. (Reporting by Eileen Soreng and Nakul Iyer in Bengaluru; Editing by Ramakrishnan M, Kirsten Donovan)

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