Feb 20 2019
NEW YORK The dollar gained against the yen and cut losses versus the euro on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, in the minutes of its latest policy meeting, said the U.S. economy and its labour market remained strong, prompting some expectations of at least one more interest rate hike this year.
Feb 20 2019
* Yuan further buoyed by trade talk hopes
* Yen loses more ground to dollar after weak data
* Traders awaiting FOMC minutes
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
(New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Feb 20 The dollar turned lower on
Wednesday, as sentiment toward riskier assets improved with U.S.
equities holding gains on optimism about U.S.-China trade talks
and hope for a resolution of Britain's exit from the European
Union.
As investors sought out riskier, higher-yielding currencies,
the dollar's losses were limited by caution ahead of the release
of U.S. monetary policy minutes.
"It's more sentiment-driven if you look across asset
classes," said Eric Viloria, FX strategist, at Credit Agricole
in New York. "If you look at G10 currencies the British pound
gained a little bit on hopes that there could be some progress
on Brexit."
The dollar traded higher for most of the morning, then
reversed course as sterling rose. Spain's foreign minister was
quoted by Bloomberg saying a revised Brexit accord was being
"hammered out".
The dollar, measured against a basket of currencies, fell 0.2
percent to 96.329, below a two-month high hit last week.
Investors focused on the upcoming release of minutes from
last month's Federal Reserve meeting, seeking more clues to the
thinking behind the Fed's dovish statement.
"Dovish minutes that downplay chances of higher rates this
year would risk pushing the greenback further away from recent
two-month peaks," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst, at
Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.
Analysts said weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales and
industrial production numbers published this month dented the
dollar's near-term outlook. According to MUFG, the data
"challenged the view that the U.S. economy will continue to hold
up relatively well while overseas economies are displaying more
acute weakness".
The dollar rose slightly against the yen to 110.67
after Japanese exports fell the most in two years in January.
The yen also slipped on Tuesday after Bank of Japan Governor
Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank was ready to ramp up
stimulus measures if sharp yen rises hurt the economy.
China's yuan rose after Washington pressed Beijing to
prevent a sharp weakening of its currency as part of any trade
deal.
The yuan, a strong performer in 2019, firmed to a three-week
high on optimism the world's two largest economies are near
agreement on a trade deal.
In offshore markets, the yuan rose 0.4 percent to as much as
6.7168, its strongest since Feb. 1.
========================================================
Currency bid prices at 12:22PM (1722 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1361 $1.1340 +0.19% -0.96% +1.1370 +1.1325
Dollar/Yen JPY= 110.6800 110.6100 +0.06% +0.38% +110.9400 +110.5400
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 125.76 125.44 +0.26% -0.36% +125.9300 +125.3700
Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9990 1.0010 -0.20% +1.79% +1.0021 +0.9984
Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.3071 1.3062 +0.07% +2.46% +1.3087 +1.3013
Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3160 1.3206 -0.35% -3.50% +1.3219 +1.3150
Australian/Doll AUD= 0.7175 0.7163 +0.17% +1.79% +0.7179 +0.7142
ar
Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1351 1.1353 -0.02% +0.86% +1.1366 +1.1336
Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8690 0.8679 +0.13% -3.27% +0.8714 +0.8677
NZ NZD= 0.6873 0.6882 -0.13% +2.32% +0.6884 +0.6851
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5738 8.5631 +0.12% -0.75% +8.5986 +8.5568
Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7413 9.7155 +0.27% -1.66% +9.7560 +9.7132
Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3046 9.3091 +0.12% +3.80% +9.3341 +9.2945
Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5736 10.5610 +0.12% +3.02% +10.5810 +10.5398
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by
Tommy Wilkes in London
Editing by Susan Thomas and David Gregorio)
Feb 20 2019
* Yuan further buoyed by trade talk hopes
* Yen loses more ground to dollar after weak data
* Euro/dollar trades quietly before Fed policy minutes
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
(Recasts, adds new comment, FX table, updates prices, changes
byline, dateline; previous LONDON)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Feb 20 The dollar on Wednesday
recovered from the previous sessions' roughly two-week lows to
trade slightly higher on the day within narrow ranges as traders
remained cautious ahead of the release of U.S. monetary policy
minutes.
The minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting will
be closely watched following a dovish statement a few weeks ago.
"The minutes may shed light on whether the Fed will raise
rates at all this year," said Joe Manimbo, senior market
analyst, at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.
"Dovish minutes that downplay chances of higher rates this
year would risk pushing the greenback further away from recent
two-month peaks," he added.
The dollar, measured against a basket of currencies, edged
0.1 percent higher at 96.578, below a two-month high hit
last week but modestly higher than Tuesday's two-week low.
Analysts say weaker than expected U.S. retail sales and
industrial production numbers published this month have dented
the near-term outlook for the dollar. According to MUFG, the
data "challenged the view that the U.S. economy will continue to
hold up relatively well while overseas economies are displaying
more acute weakness".
The dollar, however, rose 0.2 percent against the yen to
110.82 after disappointing trade numbers showed Japanese
exports fell the most in two years in January.
The yen had also taken a hit on Tuesday after Bank of Japan
Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank was ready to ramp
up stimulus measures if sharp yen rises hurt the economy.
China's yuan, meanwhile, rose after the United States
pressed Beijing to prevent a sharp weakening of its currency as
part of any trade deal.
The yuan, a strong performer in 2019, firmed to a three-week
high on optimism Washington and Beijing are close to agreeing on
a deal to end their trade conflict.
In offshore markets, the yuan rose 0.4 percent to as much as
6.7168, its strongest since Feb. 1.
The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.1344
as investors waited for cues on where U.S. monetary
policy is headed after the Fed's recent dovish tilt.
Europe's single currency has struggled this month as worries
grow about the state of the euro zone economy. So far this
month, the euro is down 0.9 percent.
ABN AMRO analyst Georgette Boele said the bank had
downgraded its euro forecasts for 2019 because of economic
concerns. But she also expects limited downside in the currency
because weaker-than-expected euro zone data have had a limited
negative impact on the euro, suggesting that most of the
weakness is already reflected in the price.
========================================================
Currency bid prices at 10:14AM (1514 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1339 $1.1340 -0.01% -1.14% +1.1359 +1.1325
Dollar/Yen JPY= 110.8200 110.6100 +0.19% +0.51% +110.9400 +110.5400
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 125.68 125.44 +0.19% -0.43% +125.9300 +125.3700
Dollar/Swiss CHF= 1.0004 1.0010 -0.06% +1.94% +1.0021 +0.9998
Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.3027 1.3062 -0.27% +2.12% +1.3076 +1.3013
Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3180 1.3206 -0.20% -3.35% +1.3219 +1.3171
Australian/Doll AUD= 0.7162 0.7163 -0.01% +1.60% +0.7176 +0.7142
ar
Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1347 1.1353 -0.05% +0.83% +1.1366 +1.1336
Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8702 0.8679 +0.27% -3.14% +0.8714 +0.8677
NZ NZD= 0.6875 0.6882 -0.10% +2.35% +0.6884 +0.6851
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5859 8.5631 +0.27% -0.61% +8.5986 +8.5568
Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7373 9.7155 +0.22% -1.70% +9.7455 +9.7132
Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3224 9.3091 +0.11% +4.00% +9.3341 +9.2945
Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5730 10.5610 +0.11% +3.01% +10.5810 +10.5398
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by
Tommy Wilkes in London
Editing by Susan Thomas)
Feb 20 2019
NEW YORK Billionaire investor Steve Cohen's Point72 Ventures has invested in a U.S. cybersecurity firm that will provide a way to detect, alert, and protect against data- and identity-related attacks, according to one of the venture capital company's top officials.
Feb 15 2019
NEW YORK, Feb 15 Foreign investors sold a record
amount of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes for the month of
December, according to U.S. Treasury Department data released on
Friday, amid wide perceptions that month that the Federal
Reserve would still raise interest rates multiple times in 2019.
Feb 08 2019
(Adds table, details, byline)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Feb 8 Speculators pared back their net
long bets on the dollar for a second straight week, according to
calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Commission data released on Friday.
The value of the net long dollar position was $28.25 billion
in the week ended Jan. 8, compared with $30.16 billion in the
previous week. The speculative market has been long the dollar
since mid-June last year.
The CFTC, which had stopped releasing the data because of
the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, resumed on Feb. 1.
U.S. dollar positioning was derived from net contracts of
International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro,
British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars.
In a broader measure of dollar positioning
that includes net contracts on the New Zealand dollar, Mexican
peso, Brazilian real, and Russian ruble, the U.S. dollar posted
a net long position of $27.55 billion as of Jan. 8, compared
with $29.55 billion a week earlier.
The dollar has struggled since the beginning of the year as
several Federal Reserve officials have started to pull back a
little bit on their bullish view on U.S. interest rates and the
economy. That shift in stance culminated in last week's dovish
comments that suggested the U.S. central bank may have to pause
its rate-hiking cycle or cut rates if the economy warrants it.
In the cryptocurrency market, speculators' net short
position on bitcoin Cboe futures increased to 1,306 contracts
in the week ended Jan. 8, up from 1,230 short
contracts the previous week.
Bitcoin remains entrenched in a deep slump, which began
early last year, despite a recovery on Friday as the currency
slid into oversold conditions.
Bitcoin was last up 7.9 percent at $3,623 on the
Bitstamp platform. It has dropped roughly 80 percent since
soaring to an all-time high of nearly $20,000 in December 2017.
Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)
$6.97 billion
08 Jan 2019 Prior week
week
Long 42,727 32,712
Short 104,041 121,335
Net -61,314 -88,623
EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)
$5.782 billion
08 Jan 2019 Prior week
week
Long 146,271 148,288
Short 186,804 194,936
Net -40,533 -46,648
POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)
$4.861 billion
08 Jan 2019 Prior week
week
Long 27,670 35,782
Short 87,762 92,696
Net -60,092 -56,914
SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)
$2.899 billion
08 Jan 2019 Prior week
week
Long 5,724 5,931
Short 28,910 31,461
Net -23,186 -25,530
CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)
$5.029 billion
08 Jan 2019 Prior week
week
Long 19,287 34,330
Short 85,289 84,979
Net -66,002 -50,649
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)
$2.733 billion
08 Jan 2019 Prior week
week
Long 22,345 27,919
Short 60,120 54,210
Net -37,775 -26,291
MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)
$-0.814 billion
08 Jan 2019 Prior week
week
Long 92,398 82,260
Short 61,416 72,488
Net 30,982 9,772
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)
$0.106 billion
08 Jan 2019 Prior week
week
Long 14,895 18,272
Short 16,433 16,310
Net -1,538 1,962
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York
Editing by James Dalgleish)
Feb 08 2019
(Adds comment, updates prices)
* U.S. 30-year yields fall to one-month low
* U.S. 2-year, 10-year note yields decline to one-week low
* U.S. yields tracking European market
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Feb 8 U.S. Treasury yields fell for a
fourth straight session on Friday, pressured by global equity
market losses on concerns there would be no trade deal between
the United States and China by the March 1 deadline.
U.S. 30-year yields dropped to one-month lows, while those
on two-year and 10-year notes slid to one-week troughs.
"This is partially from an equity sell-off that has been a
little bit of a risk-off trade," said Ellis Phifer, fixed-income
strategist at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.
"We have the China trade talks, but we haven't really seen
success at this point. Suddenly the bond market is taking its
clues from that."
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he did not plan
to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1
deadline set by the two countries to achieve a trade deal.
A person briefed on the talks said Trump's advisers were
concerned that accepting a meeting invitation at this stage
would raise unfounded expectations for a quick deal and erode
U.S. leverage in the talks, where the two sides remain far apart
on core structural intellectual property issues.
In afternoon trading, U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 2.632
percent, from 2.654 percent late on Thursday.
U.S. 30-year bond yields were also down, at 2.973 percent
, from 3.006 percent on Thursday. Thirty-year yields
earlier fell to a one-month low of 2.971 percent.
On the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields slipped
to 2.463 percent, compared with Thursday's 2.479 percent
.
"The bullish undertones despite back-to-back weeks of coupon
supply serve to increase momentum toward lower yields across a
variety of tenors," said BMO Capital Markets in a research note.
The bank noted that it is closely watching the 2.618 percent
level in the 10-year yield as a key near-term test. But with the
next nominal benchmark debt issuance not until Feb. 25, BMO said
the "lack of reintroduction of additional supply offers another
support for our long bias."
U.S. yields were also tracking those on Germany's 10-year
government bonds, which dropped below 0.1 percent for the first
time since late 2016 on Friday, reflecting concerns about
economic conditions in the euro zone's largest economy.
The 10-year Bund yield fell as low as 0.097 percent
, dragging French and Dutch yields to their lowest
levels in more than two years,.
February 8 Friday 3:25PM New York / 2025 GMT
Price Current Net
Yield % Change
(bps)
Three-month bills 2.375 2.4219 0.010
Six-month bills 2.4325 2.4963 0.010
Two-year note 100-17/256 2.465 -0.014
Three-year note 100-46/256 2.4375 -0.013
Five-year note 100-70/256 2.4412 -0.017
Seven-year note 100-156/256 2.529 -0.016
10-year note 99-240/256 2.6321 -0.022
30-year bond 100-140/256 2.9723 -0.034
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net
Change
(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 14.00 0.00
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 10.75 -0.25
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 8.75 -0.25
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap 2.25 0.00
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -18.75 0.00
spread
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler
and Sonya Hepinstall)
Feb 08 2019
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Feb 8 U.S. Treasury yields fell for a
fourth straight session on Friday, weighed down by global equity
market losses on concerns that there would be no trade deal
between the United States and China by the March 1 deadline.
U.S. 30-year yields dropped to one-month lows, while those
on two-year and 10-year notes slid to one-week troughs.
"This is partially from an equity sell-off that has been a
little bit of a risk-off trade," said Ellis Phifer, fixed-income
strategist at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee.
"We have the China trade talks, but we haven't really seen
success at this point. Suddenly the bond market is taking its
clues from that."
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he did not plan
to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1
deadline set by the two countries to achieve a trade deal.
A person briefed on the talks said Trump's advisers were
concerned that accepting a meeting invitation at this stage
would raise unfounded expectations for a quick deal and erode
U.S. leverage in the talks, where the two sides remain far apart
on core structural intellectual property issues.
In mid-morning trading, U.S. 10-year note yields fell to
2.635 percent, from 2.654 percent late on Thursday.
U.S. 30-year bond yields were also down, at 2.985 percent
, from 3.006 percent on Thursday. Thirty-year yields
earlier fell to a one-month low of 2.976 percent.
On the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields slipped
to 2.458 percent, compared with Thursday's 2.479 percent
.
Jim Vogel, interest rates strategist at FTN Financial in
Memphis, noted that this week's steady decline in yields is not
being accompanied by widespread buying support.
"That missing ingredient leaves bond prices vulnerable to a
gap higher on either a news jolt or a cumulative run of data
that don't meet expectations. A thin rally usually invites
profit-taking, but bears can't find momentum for falling bond
prices either," Vogel said.
U.S. yields were also tracking those on Germany's 10-year
government bonds, which dropped below 0.1 percent for the first
time since late 2016 on Friday, reflecting concerns about
economic conditions in the euro zone's largest economy.
The 10-year Bund yield fell as low as 0.097 percent
, dragging French and Dutch yields to their lowest
levels in more than two years,.
February 8 Friday 10:38AM New York / 1538 GMT
Price Current Net
Yield % Change
(bps)
Three-month bills 2.3775 2.4244 0.012
Six-month bills 2.425 2.4885 0.003
Two-year note 100-20/256 2.4589 -0.020
Three-year note 100-50/256 2.4321 -0.019
Five-year note 100-74/256 2.4378 -0.020
Seven-year note 100-158/256 2.5278 -0.017
10-year note 99-232/256 2.6357 -0.018
30-year bond 100-68/256 2.9865 -0.020
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net
Change
(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 14.75 0.75
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.50 0.50
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 9.00 0.00
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap 2.25 0.00
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -19.50 -0.75
spread
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler)
Feb 08 2019
NEW YORK Cryptocurrencies may be facing a prolonged bear market.
Feb 07 2019
* Trump says no plan to meet China's president before March
1
* European Commission, BoE warn on euro zone and UK growth
* U.S. 30-year bond auction shows solid demand
(Updates prices; adds comment, 30-year bond auction results)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, Feb 7 U.S. Treasury yields fell for a
third straight day on Thursday, in line with declines in Europe
and Britain, spooked by stock market weakness amid economic
growth warnings from the European Commission and Bank of England
as well as worries about the U.S.-China trade talks.
Soft German data and the growth warnings, by the European
Commission on Europe and the BoE on Britain, prompted investors
to seek cover in U.S. government debt.
Fresh concerns about U.S.-China trade negotiations emerged
after President Donald Trump confirmed on Thursday that he did
not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the
March 1 deadline set by the two countries to achieve a trade
deal.
The concerns accelerated losses in U.S. stocks and pushed
U.S. yields to one-week lows.
"There are a lot of event risks out there that are worrying
investors," said Michael DePalma, chief executive of asset
management firm PhaseCapital in New York. "But event risks are
episodic, and it seemed like we have a lot of them at the same
time."
Germany's 10-year bond yields dropped to their
lowest level in more than two years, taking a step closer to
zero percent, after the European Commission made sharp cuts to
its European growth and inflation forecasts.
Consistently poor German data recently has raised concerns
that Europe's largest economy could tip into recession.
At the same time, British 10-year government bond yields
touched an eight-month low after the BoE slashed
growth forecasts for Britain.
A dovish Federal Reserve has also weighed on rates, DePalma
said, although he believes the U.S. economy does not warrant a
change in the Fed's stance.
The Fed last week shifted its stance on monetary policy as
it acknowledged the challenges facing the U.S. economy. Its
remarks suggested that it may pause its rate-hike cycle, or even
ease policy if the economy requires it.
"If you look underneath, there is not a whole lot that has
changed. I find the Fed's abrupt shift to be unusual, if not
unprecedented," DePalma said.
In afternoon trading, U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 2.651
percent, from 2.704 percent late on Wednesday. U.S.
30-year bond yields were also down, at 2.993 percent
, from 3.038 percent on Wednesday.
Thursday's auction of U.S. 30-year bonds was well-received,
priced at 3.022 percent, which matched market forecasts at the
bid deadline. Bids totaled almost $43.1 billion for a 2.27
bid-to-cover ratio, which was a little stronger than January's
2.19.
On the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields slid to
2.479 percent, compared with Wednesday's 2.524 percent
.
Thursday, Feb. 7 at 1519 EST (2019 GMT):
Price Current Net
Yield Change
(pct) (bps)
Three-month bills 2.365 2.4121 -0.005
Six-month bills 2.4225 2.4864 -0.016
Two-year note 100-9/256 2.4815 -0.043
Three-year note 100-34/256 2.4538 -0.043
Five-year note 100-50/256 2.458 -0.049
Seven-year note 100-132/256 2.5438 -0.053
10-year note 99-196/256 2.6518 -0.052
30-year bond 107-132/256 2.9917 -0.046
DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS
Last (bps) Net
Change
(bps)
U.S. 2-year dollar swap 14.25 0.25
spread
U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.25 -0.25
spread
U.S. 5-year dollar swap 9.25 0.25
spread
U.S. 10-year dollar swap 2.50 0.25
spread
U.S. 30-year dollar swap -18.75 0.00
spread
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler
and Leslie Adler)