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Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

Dollar rises vs yen, trims losses vs euro after Fed minutes

Feb 20 2019

NEW YORK The dollar gained against the yen and cut losses versus the euro on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, in the minutes of its latest policy meeting, said the U.S. economy and its labour market remained strong, prompting some expectations of at least one more interest rate hike this year.

FOREX-Dollar falls in cautious trade ahead of Fed minutes

Feb 20 2019

* Yuan further buoyed by trade talk hopes * Yen loses more ground to dollar after weak data * Traders awaiting FOMC minutes * Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh (New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 20 The dollar turned lower on Wednesday, as sentiment toward riskier assets improved with U.S. equities holding gains on optimism about U.S.-China trade talks and hope for a resolution of Britain's exit from the European Union. As investors sought out riskier, higher-yielding currencies, the dollar's losses were limited by caution ahead of the release of U.S. monetary policy minutes. "It's more sentiment-driven if you look across asset classes," said Eric Viloria, FX strategist, at Credit Agricole in New York. "If you look at G10 currencies the British pound gained a little bit on hopes that there could be some progress on Brexit." The dollar traded higher for most of the morning, then reversed course as sterling rose. Spain's foreign minister was quoted by Bloomberg saying a revised Brexit accord was being "hammered out". The dollar, measured against a basket of currencies, fell 0.2 percent to 96.329, below a two-month high hit last week. Investors focused on the upcoming release of minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting, seeking more clues to the thinking behind the Fed's dovish statement. "Dovish minutes that downplay chances of higher rates this year would risk pushing the greenback further away from recent two-month peaks," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst, at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington. Analysts said weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales and industrial production numbers published this month dented the dollar's near-term outlook. According to MUFG, the data "challenged the view that the U.S. economy will continue to hold up relatively well while overseas economies are displaying more acute weakness". The dollar rose slightly against the yen to 110.67 after Japanese exports fell the most in two years in January. The yen also slipped on Tuesday after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank was ready to ramp up stimulus measures if sharp yen rises hurt the economy. China's yuan rose after Washington pressed Beijing to prevent a sharp weakening of its currency as part of any trade deal. The yuan, a strong performer in 2019, firmed to a three-week high on optimism the world's two largest economies are near agreement on a trade deal. In offshore markets, the yuan rose 0.4 percent to as much as 6.7168, its strongest since Feb. 1. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 12:22PM (1722 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1361 $1.1340 +0.19% -0.96% +1.1370 +1.1325 Dollar/Yen JPY= 110.6800 110.6100 +0.06% +0.38% +110.9400 +110.5400 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 125.76 125.44 +0.26% -0.36% +125.9300 +125.3700 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9990 1.0010 -0.20% +1.79% +1.0021 +0.9984 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.3071 1.3062 +0.07% +2.46% +1.3087 +1.3013 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3160 1.3206 -0.35% -3.50% +1.3219 +1.3150 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.7175 0.7163 +0.17% +1.79% +0.7179 +0.7142 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1351 1.1353 -0.02% +0.86% +1.1366 +1.1336 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8690 0.8679 +0.13% -3.27% +0.8714 +0.8677 NZ NZD= 0.6873 0.6882 -0.13% +2.32% +0.6884 +0.6851 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5738 8.5631 +0.12% -0.75% +8.5986 +8.5568 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7413 9.7155 +0.27% -1.66% +9.7560 +9.7132 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3046 9.3091 +0.12% +3.80% +9.3341 +9.2945 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5736 10.5610 +0.12% +3.02% +10.5810 +10.5398 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Tommy Wilkes in London Editing by Susan Thomas and David Gregorio)

FOREX-Dollar edges higher in cautious trade ahead of Fed minutes

Feb 20 2019

* Yuan further buoyed by trade talk hopes * Yen loses more ground to dollar after weak data * Euro/dollar trades quietly before Fed policy minutes * Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh (Recasts, adds new comment, FX table, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 20 The dollar on Wednesday recovered from the previous sessions' roughly two-week lows to trade slightly higher on the day within narrow ranges as traders remained cautious ahead of the release of U.S. monetary policy minutes. The minutes from last month's Federal Reserve meeting will be closely watched following a dovish statement a few weeks ago. "The minutes may shed light on whether the Fed will raise rates at all this year," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst, at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington. "Dovish minutes that downplay chances of higher rates this year would risk pushing the greenback further away from recent two-month peaks," he added. The dollar, measured against a basket of currencies, edged 0.1 percent higher at 96.578, below a two-month high hit last week but modestly higher than Tuesday's two-week low. Analysts say weaker than expected U.S. retail sales and industrial production numbers published this month have dented the near-term outlook for the dollar. According to MUFG, the data "challenged the view that the U.S. economy will continue to hold up relatively well while overseas economies are displaying more acute weakness". The dollar, however, rose 0.2 percent against the yen to 110.82 after disappointing trade numbers showed Japanese exports fell the most in two years in January. The yen had also taken a hit on Tuesday after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank was ready to ramp up stimulus measures if sharp yen rises hurt the economy. China's yuan, meanwhile, rose after the United States pressed Beijing to prevent a sharp weakening of its currency as part of any trade deal. The yuan, a strong performer in 2019, firmed to a three-week high on optimism Washington and Beijing are close to agreeing on a deal to end their trade conflict. In offshore markets, the yuan rose 0.4 percent to as much as 6.7168, its strongest since Feb. 1. The euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.1344 as investors waited for cues on where U.S. monetary policy is headed after the Fed's recent dovish tilt. Europe's single currency has struggled this month as worries grow about the state of the euro zone economy. So far this month, the euro is down 0.9 percent. ABN AMRO analyst Georgette Boele said the bank had downgraded its euro forecasts for 2019 because of economic concerns. But she also expects limited downside in the currency because weaker-than-expected euro zone data have had a limited negative impact on the euro, suggesting that most of the weakness is already reflected in the price. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 10:14AM (1514 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1339 $1.1340 -0.01% -1.14% +1.1359 +1.1325 Dollar/Yen JPY= 110.8200 110.6100 +0.19% +0.51% +110.9400 +110.5400 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 125.68 125.44 +0.19% -0.43% +125.9300 +125.3700 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 1.0004 1.0010 -0.06% +1.94% +1.0021 +0.9998 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.3027 1.3062 -0.27% +2.12% +1.3076 +1.3013 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3180 1.3206 -0.20% -3.35% +1.3219 +1.3171 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.7162 0.7163 -0.01% +1.60% +0.7176 +0.7142 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1347 1.1353 -0.05% +0.83% +1.1366 +1.1336 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8702 0.8679 +0.27% -3.14% +0.8714 +0.8677 NZ NZD= 0.6875 0.6882 -0.10% +2.35% +0.6884 +0.6851 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5859 8.5631 +0.27% -0.61% +8.5986 +8.5568 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.7373 9.7155 +0.22% -1.70% +9.7455 +9.7132 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3224 9.3091 +0.11% +4.00% +9.3341 +9.2945 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5730 10.5610 +0.11% +3.01% +10.5810 +10.5398 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Tommy Wilkes in London Editing by Susan Thomas)

Steve Cohen's venture firm invests in U.S. cybersecurity company

Feb 20 2019

NEW YORK Billionaire investor Steve Cohen's Point72 Ventures has invested in a U.S. cybersecurity firm that will provide a way to detect, alert, and protect against data- and identity-related attacks, according to one of the venture capital company's top officials.

UPDATE 1-Foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries in December hits record high -data

Feb 15 2019

NEW YORK, Feb 15 Foreign investors sold a record amount of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes for the month of December, according to U.S. Treasury Department data released on Friday, amid wide perceptions that month that the Federal Reserve would still raise interest rates multiple times in 2019.

UPDATE 1-Speculators trim net long dollar bets for 2nd week -CFTC, Reuters

Feb 08 2019

(Adds table, details, byline) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 8 Speculators pared back their net long bets on the dollar for a second straight week, according to calculations by Reuters and U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday. The value of the net long dollar position was $28.25 billion in the week ended Jan. 8, compared with $30.16 billion in the previous week. The speculative market has been long the dollar since mid-June last year. The CFTC, which had stopped releasing the data because of the 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown, resumed on Feb. 1. U.S. dollar positioning was derived from net contracts of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars. In a broader measure of dollar positioning that includes net contracts on the New Zealand dollar, Mexican peso, Brazilian real, and Russian ruble, the U.S. dollar posted a net long position of $27.55 billion as of Jan. 8, compared with $29.55 billion a week earlier. The dollar has struggled since the beginning of the year as several Federal Reserve officials have started to pull back a little bit on their bullish view on U.S. interest rates and the economy. That shift in stance culminated in last week's dovish comments that suggested the U.S. central bank may have to pause its rate-hiking cycle or cut rates if the economy warrants it. In the cryptocurrency market, speculators' net short position on bitcoin Cboe futures increased to 1,306 contracts in the week ended Jan. 8, up from 1,230 short contracts the previous week. Bitcoin remains entrenched in a deep slump, which began early last year, despite a recovery on Friday as the currency slid into oversold conditions. Bitcoin was last up 7.9 percent at $3,623 on the Bitstamp platform. It has dropped roughly 80 percent since soaring to an all-time high of nearly $20,000 in December 2017. Japanese Yen (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen) $6.97 billion 08 Jan 2019 Prior week week Long 42,727 32,712 Short 104,041 121,335 Net -61,314 -88,623 EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros) $5.782 billion 08 Jan 2019 Prior week week Long 146,271 148,288 Short 186,804 194,936 Net -40,533 -46,648 POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling) $4.861 billion 08 Jan 2019 Prior week week Long 27,670 35,782 Short 87,762 92,696 Net -60,092 -56,914 SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs) $2.899 billion 08 Jan 2019 Prior week week Long 5,724 5,931 Short 28,910 31,461 Net -23,186 -25,530 CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars) $5.029 billion 08 Jan 2019 Prior week week Long 19,287 34,330 Short 85,289 84,979 Net -66,002 -50,649 AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars) $2.733 billion 08 Jan 2019 Prior week week Long 22,345 27,919 Short 60,120 54,210 Net -37,775 -26,291 MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos) $-0.814 billion 08 Jan 2019 Prior week week Long 92,398 82,260 Short 61,416 72,488 Net 30,982 9,772 NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars) $0.106 billion 08 Jan 2019 Prior week week Long 14,895 18,272 Short 16,433 16,310 Net -1,538 1,962 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York Editing by James Dalgleish)

TREASURIES-U.S. yields slide for 4th day on U.S.-China trade worries

Feb 08 2019

(Adds comment, updates prices) * U.S. 30-year yields fall to one-month low * U.S. 2-year, 10-year note yields decline to one-week low * U.S. yields tracking European market By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 8 U.S. Treasury yields fell for a fourth straight session on Friday, pressured by global equity market losses on concerns there would be no trade deal between the United States and China by the March 1 deadline. U.S. 30-year yields dropped to one-month lows, while those on two-year and 10-year notes slid to one-week troughs. "This is partially from an equity sell-off that has been a little bit of a risk-off trade," said Ellis Phifer, fixed-income strategist at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee. "We have the China trade talks, but we haven't really seen success at this point. Suddenly the bond market is taking its clues from that." U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline set by the two countries to achieve a trade deal. A person briefed on the talks said Trump's advisers were concerned that accepting a meeting invitation at this stage would raise unfounded expectations for a quick deal and erode U.S. leverage in the talks, where the two sides remain far apart on core structural intellectual property issues. In afternoon trading, U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 2.632 percent, from 2.654 percent late on Thursday. U.S. 30-year bond yields were also down, at 2.973 percent , from 3.006 percent on Thursday. Thirty-year yields earlier fell to a one-month low of 2.971 percent. On the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields slipped to 2.463 percent, compared with Thursday's 2.479 percent . "The bullish undertones despite back-to-back weeks of coupon supply serve to increase momentum toward lower yields across a variety of tenors," said BMO Capital Markets in a research note. The bank noted that it is closely watching the 2.618 percent level in the 10-year yield as a key near-term test. But with the next nominal benchmark debt issuance not until Feb. 25, BMO said the "lack of reintroduction of additional supply offers another support for our long bias." U.S. yields were also tracking those on Germany's 10-year government bonds, which dropped below 0.1 percent for the first time since late 2016 on Friday, reflecting concerns about economic conditions in the euro zone's largest economy. The 10-year Bund yield fell as low as 0.097 percent , dragging French and Dutch yields to their lowest levels in more than two years,. February 8 Friday 3:25PM New York / 2025 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 2.375 2.4219 0.010 Six-month bills 2.4325 2.4963 0.010 Two-year note 100-17/256 2.465 -0.014 Three-year note 100-46/256 2.4375 -0.013 Five-year note 100-70/256 2.4412 -0.017 Seven-year note 100-156/256 2.529 -0.016 10-year note 99-240/256 2.6321 -0.022 30-year bond 100-140/256 2.9723 -0.034 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 14.00 0.00 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 10.75 -0.25 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 8.75 -0.25 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 2.25 0.00 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -18.75 0.00 spread (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler and Sonya Hepinstall)

TREASURIES-U.S. yields down for 4th day on U.S.-China trade woes

Feb 08 2019

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 8 U.S. Treasury yields fell for a fourth straight session on Friday, weighed down by global equity market losses on concerns that there would be no trade deal between the United States and China by the March 1 deadline. U.S. 30-year yields dropped to one-month lows, while those on two-year and 10-year notes slid to one-week troughs. "This is partially from an equity sell-off that has been a little bit of a risk-off trade," said Ellis Phifer, fixed-income strategist at Raymond James in Memphis, Tennessee. "We have the China trade talks, but we haven't really seen success at this point. Suddenly the bond market is taking its clues from that." U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline set by the two countries to achieve a trade deal. A person briefed on the talks said Trump's advisers were concerned that accepting a meeting invitation at this stage would raise unfounded expectations for a quick deal and erode U.S. leverage in the talks, where the two sides remain far apart on core structural intellectual property issues. In mid-morning trading, U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 2.635 percent, from 2.654 percent late on Thursday. U.S. 30-year bond yields were also down, at 2.985 percent , from 3.006 percent on Thursday. Thirty-year yields earlier fell to a one-month low of 2.976 percent. On the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields slipped to 2.458 percent, compared with Thursday's 2.479 percent . Jim Vogel, interest rates strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, noted that this week's steady decline in yields is not being accompanied by widespread buying support. "That missing ingredient leaves bond prices vulnerable to a gap higher on either a news jolt or a cumulative run of data that don't meet expectations. A thin rally usually invites profit-taking, but bears can't find momentum for falling bond prices either," Vogel said. U.S. yields were also tracking those on Germany's 10-year government bonds, which dropped below 0.1 percent for the first time since late 2016 on Friday, reflecting concerns about economic conditions in the euro zone's largest economy. The 10-year Bund yield fell as low as 0.097 percent , dragging French and Dutch yields to their lowest levels in more than two years,. February 8 Friday 10:38AM New York / 1538 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 2.3775 2.4244 0.012 Six-month bills 2.425 2.4885 0.003 Two-year note 100-20/256 2.4589 -0.020 Three-year note 100-50/256 2.4321 -0.019 Five-year note 100-74/256 2.4378 -0.020 Seven-year note 100-158/256 2.5278 -0.017 10-year note 99-232/256 2.6357 -0.018 30-year bond 100-68/256 2.9865 -0.020 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 14.75 0.75 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.50 0.50 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 9.00 0.00 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 2.25 0.00 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -19.50 -0.75 spread (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Crypto bear market threatens to last as potential token supply weighs

Feb 08 2019

NEW YORK Cryptocurrencies may be facing a prolonged bear market.

TREASURIES-U.S. yields slide on global growth and trade fears

Feb 07 2019

* Trump says no plan to meet China's president before March 1 * European Commission, BoE warn on euro zone and UK growth * U.S. 30-year bond auction shows solid demand (Updates prices; adds comment, 30-year bond auction results) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, Feb 7 U.S. Treasury yields fell for a third straight day on Thursday, in line with declines in Europe and Britain, spooked by stock market weakness amid economic growth warnings from the European Commission and Bank of England as well as worries about the U.S.-China trade talks. Soft German data and the growth warnings, by the European Commission on Europe and the BoE on Britain, prompted investors to seek cover in U.S. government debt. Fresh concerns about U.S.-China trade negotiations emerged after President Donald Trump confirmed on Thursday that he did not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before the March 1 deadline set by the two countries to achieve a trade deal. The concerns accelerated losses in U.S. stocks and pushed U.S. yields to one-week lows. "There are a lot of event risks out there that are worrying investors," said Michael DePalma, chief executive of asset management firm PhaseCapital in New York. "But event risks are episodic, and it seemed like we have a lot of them at the same time." Germany's 10-year bond yields dropped to their lowest level in more than two years, taking a step closer to zero percent, after the European Commission made sharp cuts to its European growth and inflation forecasts. Consistently poor German data recently has raised concerns that Europe's largest economy could tip into recession. At the same time, British 10-year government bond yields touched an eight-month low after the BoE slashed growth forecasts for Britain. A dovish Federal Reserve has also weighed on rates, DePalma said, although he believes the U.S. economy does not warrant a change in the Fed's stance. The Fed last week shifted its stance on monetary policy as it acknowledged the challenges facing the U.S. economy. Its remarks suggested that it may pause its rate-hike cycle, or even ease policy if the economy requires it. "If you look underneath, there is not a whole lot that has changed. I find the Fed's abrupt shift to be unusual, if not unprecedented," DePalma said. In afternoon trading, U.S. 10-year note yields fell to 2.651 percent, from 2.704 percent late on Wednesday. U.S. 30-year bond yields were also down, at 2.993 percent , from 3.038 percent on Wednesday. Thursday's auction of U.S. 30-year bonds was well-received, priced at 3.022 percent, which matched market forecasts at the bid deadline. Bids totaled almost $43.1 billion for a 2.27 bid-to-cover ratio, which was a little stronger than January's 2.19. On the short end of the curve, U.S. 2-year yields slid to 2.479 percent, compared with Wednesday's 2.524 percent . Thursday, Feb. 7 at 1519 EST (2019 GMT): Price Current Net Yield Change (pct) (bps) Three-month bills 2.365 2.4121 -0.005 Six-month bills 2.4225 2.4864 -0.016 Two-year note 100-9/256 2.4815 -0.043 Three-year note 100-34/256 2.4538 -0.043 Five-year note 100-50/256 2.458 -0.049 Seven-year note 100-132/256 2.5438 -0.053 10-year note 99-196/256 2.6518 -0.052 30-year bond 107-132/256 2.9917 -0.046 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 14.25 0.25 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 11.25 -0.25 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap 9.25 0.25 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap 2.50 0.25 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -18.75 0.00 spread (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Dan Grebler and Leslie Adler)

World News

Drone briefly shuts down operations at Dublin airport

Flight operations at Dublin airport were briefly suspended on Thursday due to the confirmed sighting of a drone over the airfield, Ireland's largest airport said, the first time such disruption has been caused at an Irish airport.