NEW YORK The dollar edged higher on Monday in thin summer trading, with its potential upside limited by expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week's policy meeting.
* Currencies still driven by tug of war between central banks * Australian dollar reaches 10-day high after Chinese data * China's offshore yuan nudges upwards * Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh (Recasts, adds new comment, FX table, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, July 15 The dollar was little changed to slightly higher on Monday in thin summer trading, with the greenback's upside potential hampered by expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week's policy meeting. Investors expect the Fed to reduce its key rate by 25 basis points and make another cut in September. Foreign exchange markets were quiet on Monday and volatility low ahead of major central bank policy decisions next week. The European Central Bank also holds a meeting next week, with investors expecting a dovish statement. Money markets have priced in an ECB rate cut of 10 basis points in September and another one in March. The ECB's meeting on July 25 may reinforce those expectations. Forecasts for dovish moves by both the Fed and ECB have kept euro/dollar stuck in a narrow range for weeks. "Until we get the news out of the G7 central banks later in this month and later into the summer, we are likely to remain rather range-bound and relatively quiet," said Brad Bechtel, managing director, Jefferies in New York. "Even then, we all know what to expect, more or less." In mid-morning trading, an index that tracks the dollar against a basket of six other major currencies was slightly higher at 96.867. The dollar was little changed versus the yen at 107.865 . The euro was flat at $1.1266, trading within the recent range of $1.14 to $1.11. Investors are more bearish on the euro, since U.S. Treasury yields look set to remain among the highest in developed markets despite future Fed rate cuts, analysts say. Some analysts, however, are surprised the euro is not gaining given that the market has priced in Fed easing. "For the world's most-traded and least-exciting currency pair, a dovish Fed, a weak-dollar president and a hint of global economic optimism, 'ought' to mean euro/dollar rallies," said Kit Juckes, FX strategist at Societe Generale. "If it (the euro) can't stage a move back to $1.14 in the next week or two, what on earth could make it rally?" Elsewhere, the Australian dollar, the currency most sensitive to Chinese news, hit a more than one-week high on stronger-than-expected economic data from China. China's industrial output rebounded in June from a 17-year low in May, while June retail sales surged 9.8% from a year earlier. The Aussie was last up 0.1% at US$0.7031 against the U.S. dollar, while China's offshore yuan was up 0.1% at 6.8742 yuan per dollar. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 10:14 AM (1414 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1264 $1.1269 -0.04% -1.79% +1.1284 +1.1261 Dollar/Yen JPY= 107.8400 107.8900 -0.05% -2.19% +108.1000 +107.8100 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 121.52 121.60 -0.07% -3.72% +121.8400 +121.4800 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9836 0.9840 -0.04% +0.22% +0.9854 +0.9818 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2531 1.2573 -0.33% -1.77% +1.2579 +1.2525 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3031 1.3029 +0.02% -4.44% +1.3042 +1.3021 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.7030 0.7017 +0.19% -0.27% +0.7038 +0.7009 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1082 1.1092 -0.09% -1.53% +1.1102 +1.1067 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8988 0.8960 +0.31% +0.04% +0.8998 +0.8961 NZ NZD= 0.6719 0.6690 +0.43% +0.01% +0.6734 +0.6679 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5419 8.5309 +0.13% -1.12% +8.5481 +8.5236 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.6246 9.6137 +0.11% -2.84% +9.6292 +9.6156 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3611 9.3769 -0.24% +4.44% +9.3772 +9.3524 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5460 10.5710 -0.24% +2.75% +10.5690 +10.5460 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Olga Kotaga in London)
NEW YORK The dollar weakened for a third straight session on Friday, still pressured by expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at a monetary policy meeting later this month.
* U.S. produce prices rise modestly * Futures market sees U.S. rate cut in July * Euro slightly lower after comments from ECB official * Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh (New throughout, updates prices, market activity and comments, FX table; new byline, changes dateline, previous LONDON) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, July 12 The dollar fell for a third straight session on Friday, still pressured by expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at a monetary policy meeting later this month. Against a basket of other currencies, the dollar fell 0.1% to 97.004, and also posted losses against the yen and Swiss franc. The dollar briefly trimmed losses after U.S. data showed producer prices rose slightly in June, up 0.1% following a similar gain in May. In the 12 months through June, the PPI rose 1.7%, the smallest gain since January 2017, slowing further from a 1.8% increase in May. "Evidence of higher inflation will be warmly received by the Fed," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst, at Western Union Business Solutions in New York. But until the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, shows convincing signs of heating up from a low 1.6%, the Fed is unlikely to change its stance on cutting rates as soon as later this month, he added. The producer prices data followed a report on Thursday showing the core U.S. consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% in June, the largest increase since January 2018, data on Thursday showed. The CPI reading pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, but money markets still indicated one rate cut at the end of July and a cumulative 64 basis points in cuts by the end of 2019, especially after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell flagged such a move in his two-day testimony before Congress this week. The dollar's weakness revived carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies such as the Swiss franc and the euro to purchase higher-yielding ones such as the Australian or New Zealand dollars. The euro slipped versus the dollar after European Central Bank Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said the ECB will need to adopt further expansionary measures if the euro zone economy does not pick up and will consider its options "in the coming weeks". The single currency was last at $1.3051, down 0.1%. The market has been monitoring Fed speakers. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the U.S. economy still has "very solid fundamentals" with a vibrant labor market. He said he viewed the Fed's monetary policy as neutral, but it could be more accommodative if the goal is to lift inflation. New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Monday. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 10:29 AM (1429 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1248 $1.1252 -0.04% -1.93% +1.1275 +1.1239 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.0600 108.4800 -0.39% -2.00% +108.6000 +108.0600 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 121.57 122.09 -0.43% -3.68% +122.2300 +121.5500 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9856 0.9900 -0.44% +0.43% +0.9908 +0.9845 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2548 1.2519 +0.23% -1.63% +1.2554 +1.2519 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3043 1.3072 -0.22% -4.36% +1.3078 +1.3018 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6993 0.6973 +0.29% -0.79% +0.7009 +0.6971 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1089 1.1141 -0.47% -1.47% +1.1154 +1.1073 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8963 0.8988 -0.28% -0.23% +0.8991 +0.8961 NZ NZD= 0.6671 0.6659 +0.18% -0.68% +0.6691 +0.6659 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5541 8.5386 +0.18% -0.98% +8.5568 +8.5199 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.6217 9.6115 +0.11% -2.85% +9.6239 +9.6054 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3803 9.3805 -0.04% +4.65% +9.3910 +9.3603 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5517 10.5562 -0.04% +2.82% +10.5619 +10.5399 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in London; Editing by David Gregorio)
NEW YORK The dollar inched lower on Thursday in thin summer trading, as its outlook remained grim after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's bleak comments on the U.S. economy, which bolstered expectations of an interest rate cut later this month.
* U.S. core CPI rises, helps trim dollar losses * U.S. jobless claims are better than expected * July's U.S. rate cut view still intact -analysts * Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh (Adds U.S. data, analyst comment, FX table, updates prices, changes dateline; previous LONDON) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, July 11 The dollar slipped to near a one-week low on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's bleak comments on the U.S. economy bolstered expectations of an interest rate cut later this month, which would be the first in a decade. Since the middle of May, the dollar index has fallen 1.6%, with the greenback down 2.6% against the yen. The dollar trimmed losses against the yen and euro after data showed U.S. underlying consumer prices rose 0.3% in June, the most in nearly 1-1/2 years, with solid gains in the costs of a range of goods and service. In another positive economic report, initial weekly jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 209,000 for the week ended July 6, the lowest since April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 223,000 in the latest week. The inflation data, however, had little bearing on a widely expected view of an interest rate decrease this month at the Fed's next monetary policy meeting, analysts said. "If there was any doubt that the data was really compelling, especially the strong U.S. non-farm payrolls report last week, I think we had our answer yesterday, with Powell's pretty strong argument for easing as soon as July," said Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. In testimony to Congress on Wednesday, Powell pointed to "broad" global weakness that was clouding the U.S. economic outlook amid uncertainty about the fallout from the trade conflict with China and other nations. His comments on Wednesday affirmed market expectations - money markets expect one rate cut later this month and a cumulative 68 basis points of cuts until the end of 2019 - but market watchers said Powell's views will drive the dollar. The Fed chief was giving a second day of testimony to members of Congress on Thursday. In mid-morning trading, the dollar index slipped 0.1% to 97.039, after earlier falling to a one-week low. The dollar was also down 0.2% versus the yen to 108.26 yen , and slipped 0.1% against the Swiss franc to 0.9886 franc . "Once we get a quarter-point rate cut, which markets are widely expecting, Powell will keep all options open on the table, and that means the dollar's outlook is uncertain," said Manuel Oliveri, an FX strategist at Credit Agricole in London. The euro, meanwhile, was little changed at $1.1253, even as expectations grew that the European Central Bank would loosen policy. Focus has turned to the release of the ECB's June minutes and whether it has started discussions about a return to asset purchases. The British pound rose from six-month lows to $1.2535 . But it remains down for the week, amid Britain's economic gloom and a fast-approaching Brexit deadline. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 10:33AM (1433 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1255 $1.1249 +0.05% -1.87% +1.1285 +1.1251 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.2900 108.4600 -0.16% -1.79% +108.4600 +107.8700 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 121.93 122.01 -0.07% -3.40% +122.0800 +121.6300 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9885 0.9894 -0.09% +0.72% +0.9900 +0.9848 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2533 1.2499 +0.27% -1.76% +1.2571 +1.2500 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3080 1.3080 +0.00% -4.08% +1.3083 +1.3042 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6975 0.6957 +0.26% -1.05% +0.6988 +0.6955 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1127 1.1131 -0.04% -1.13% +1.1137 +1.1106 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8979 0.8999 -0.22% -0.06% +0.9005 +0.8967 NZ NZD= 0.6667 0.6645 +0.33% -0.73% +0.6688 +0.6644 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5478 8.5798 -0.37% -1.06% +8.5828 +8.5320 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.6212 9.6533 -0.33% -2.88% +9.6610 +9.6156 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.3870 9.4198 -0.29% +4.72% +9.4223 +9.3713 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5670 10.5981 -0.29% +2.95% +10.6031 +10.5560 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in London; Editing by Dan Grebler)
NEW YORK The dollar retreated on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck a downbeat tone in congressional testimony, saying trade uncertainties and concerns about the global outlook continued to exert pressure on the U.S. economy.
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh * Fed's Powell says trade, global concerns weigh on U.S. economy * Dollar hits session low vs yen, euro after Powell remarks * Markets expect 25 basis-point cut later this month (Adds analyst comments, updates prices) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, July 10 The dollar fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck a downbeat tone in congressional testimony, saying trade uncertainties and concerns about the global outlook continued to exert pressure on the U.S. economy. The greenback hit session lows versus the euro and yen after Powell's comments, which reinforced expectations the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a decade at its next monetary policy meeting later this month. In prepared remarks to a congressional committee, Powell said the Fed stands ready to "act as appropriate" to sustain a decade-long expansion. He also contrasted the Fed's "baseline outlook" of continued U.S. growth against a considerable set of risks - including persistently weak inflation, slower growth in other major economies, and a downturn in business investment driven by uncertainty over just how long the Trump administration's trade war with China and other countries will last and how intense it will become. "There is now economic evidence that the outlook for the U.S. economy is not that great," said Juan Perez, senior currency trader at Tempus Inc in Washington. "Ultimately what that means is that the Federal Reserve will need to intervene. ... And the dollar will get hurt as a result." Expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut at a Fed meeting later this month have evaporated, but investors still expect a 25-basis-point cut due to weak inflation and worries about growing business fallout from the U.S.-China trade war. In midmorning trading, the dollar index slid 0.3% to 97.155 . Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.3% versus the yen to 108.657, dropping against the Swiss franc to 0.9894 franc . The euro, meanwhile, rose 0.4% to $1.1248. "If we see softer-than-expected inflation data tomorrow and if the advance second-quarter GDP (gross domestic product) reading comes in well below 2.0% on July 26th, we will see the case grow for the first cut to be a 50-basis-point one," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. "Currently, markets see one cut in July and it's almost a coin flip for another one in September." ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:12 AM (1312 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1246 $1.1206 +0.36% -1.94% +1.1254 +1.1202 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.5600 108.8400 -0.26% -1.54% +108.9800 +108.5400 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 122.08 122.01 +0.06% -3.28% +122.3200 +121.9800 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9892 0.9934 -0.42% +0.79% +0.9941 +0.9889 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2515 1.2465 +0.40% -1.90% +1.2520 +1.2445 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3072 1.3125 -0.40% -4.14% +1.3137 +1.3075 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6956 0.6927 +0.42% -1.32% +0.6960 +0.6911 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1126 1.1135 -0.08% -1.14% +1.1139 +1.1121 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8984 0.8991 -0.08% +0.00% +0.9009 +0.8985 NZ NZD= 0.6645 0.6603 +0.64% -1.07% +0.6652 +0.6569 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5869 8.6505 -0.74% -0.60% +8.6637 +8.5859 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.6589 9.6960 -0.38% -2.49% +9.7129 +9.6598 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.4183 9.4712 -0.24% +5.07% +9.4799 +9.4134 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5940 10.6190 -0.24% +3.22% +10.6320 +10.5900 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss Editing by Nick Zieminski and Jonathan Oatis)
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh * Fed's Powell says trade, global concerns weigh on U.S. economy * Dollar hits session low vs yen, euro after Powell remarks (Recasts, adds comments, FX table, Powell's remarks, changes byline, dateline) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, July 10 The dollar fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell struck a downbeat tone in his testimony, saying trade uncertainties and concerns about the global outlook continued to exert pressure on the U.S. economy. The greenback hit session lows versus the euro and yen after Powell's comments, which reinforced expectations the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in a decade at its next monetary policy meeting later this month. In prepared remarks to a congressional committee, Powell said the Fed stands ready to "act as appropriate" to sustain a decade-long expansion. He also contrasted the Fed's "baseline outlook" of continued U.S. growth against a considerable set of risks - including persistently weak inflation, slower growth in other major economies, and a downturn in business investment driven by uncertainty over just how long the Trump administration's trade war with China and other countries will last and how intense it will become. In early morning trading, the dollar fell 0.2% versus the yen to 108.66, while the euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to $1.1244. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 8:47AM (1247 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar EUR= $1.1243 $1.1206 +0.33% -1.97% +1.1246 +1.1202 Dollar/Yen JPY= 108.6000 108.8400 -0.22% -1.51% +108.9800 +108.6100 Euro/Yen EURJPY= 122.12 122.01 +0.09% -3.25% +122.3200 +121.9800 Dollar/Swiss CHF= 0.9896 0.9934 -0.38% +0.84% +0.9941 +0.9897 Sterling/Dollar GBP= 1.2509 1.2465 +0.35% -1.94% +1.2512 +1.2445 Dollar/Canadian CAD= 1.3090 1.3125 -0.27% -4.01% +1.3137 +1.3088 Australian/Doll AUD= 0.6954 0.6927 +0.39% -1.35% +0.6956 +0.6911 ar Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1130 1.1135 -0.04% -1.10% +1.1139 +1.1121 Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8986 0.8991 -0.06% +0.02% +0.9009 +0.8985 NZ NZD= 0.6643 0.6603 +0.61% -1.10% +0.6646 +0.6569 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway NOK= 8.5983 8.6505 -0.60% -0.47% +8.6637 +8.5981 Euro/Norway EURNOK= 9.6677 9.6960 -0.29% -2.41% +9.7129 +9.6686 Dollar/Sweden SEK= 9.4250 9.4712 -0.20% +5.15% +9.4799 +9.4242 Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.5980 10.6190 -0.20% +3.25% +10.6320 +10.5979 (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss Editing by Nick Zieminski)
* U.S. economy creates 224,000 jobs in June * Traders price out 1/2-point cut at July Fed meeting * Markets factor in 25 basis-point cut this month * U.S. 10-year yields hit 1-week high, 2-year at 2-week peak (Adds comment; updates prices) By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, July 5 U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board on Friday, after data showed the world's largest economy created far more jobs than expected in June, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will not aggressively cut interest rates later this month. Analysts said the strong jobs report should not stop the Fed from reducing interest rates at its July policy meeting, but it did take a 50-basis-point cut off the table. U.S. benchmark 10-year yields rose to a more than one-week high, while 2-year yields climbed to a two-week peak after the jobs report. U.S. 10-year yields posted their largest daily rise since early January, while yields on the 2-year had their highest daily gain in more than four years. For 30-year yields, Friday's rise was the largest since early October 2018. Data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 224,000 jobs last month as government employment rose by the most in 10 months. The economy created only 72,000 jobs in May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 160,000 in June. But wage gain growth slowed in June, rising just 0.2%, after gaining 0.3% in May. "The short end has abruptly abandoned any thought of a 50-basis-point rate cut this month and now greatly discounts anything other than an insurance cut of 25 basis points for the entire second half of the year," said Jim Vogel, interest rates strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee. In afternoon trading, 10-year note yields rose to 2.068% , a one-week peak, from 1.955% late on Wednesday. They were last at 2.044%. Ten-year yields hit 1.939% on Wednesday, which was their lowest level since November 2016. Yields on the 30-year bonds advanced to 2.546%, from 2.471% on Wednesday. At the short end of the curve, 2-year yields were up at 1.869%, from Wednesday's 1.766%. Earlier in the session, 2-year yields touched two-week highs of 1.888%. After the data, U.S. rate futures have priced in just a 9.0% chance the U.S. central bank will lower interest rates by half a percentage point this month, down from 29% on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch program. Next week's spotlight will be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will deliver his semi-annual monetary report before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. NatWest Markets, in a research note said, investors will be looking out for the Fed's reaction to the U.S.-China trade truce and the June employment numbers to gauge the possibility and magnitude of an interest rate cut at the Fed's July meeting. July 5 Friday 2:40 PM New York / 1840 GMT Price Current Net Yield % Change (bps) Three-month bills 2.1725 2.2204 0.012 Six-month bills 2.0775 2.1282 0.043 Two-year note 99-134/256 1.8714 0.105 Three-year note 99-206/256 1.8184 0.109 Five-year note 99-150/256 1.8374 0.099 Seven-year note 99-168/256 1.9278 0.091 10-year note 102-240/256 2.0442 0.089 30-year bond 106-216/256 2.5462 0.075 DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS Last (bps) Net Change (bps) U.S. 2-year dollar swap 3.75 0.25 spread U.S. 3-year dollar swap 1.25 -0.25 spread U.S. 5-year dollar swap -1.75 0.25 spread U.S. 10-year dollar swap -5.25 -0.25 spread U.S. 30-year dollar swap -32.00 0.25 spread (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss Editing by Susan Thomas and Leslie Adler)
Iran said on Thursday it had seized a foreign tanker smuggling fuel in the Gulf, and the U.S. military commander in the region said the United States would work "aggressively" to ensure free passage of vessels through the vital waterway.