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United States

Hari Kishan

U.S. 2019 housing market outlook on shaky ground: Reuters poll

Nov 29 2018

Growth of U.S. home prices will slow sharply next year along with economic momentum, according to a Reuters poll of property experts who largely said turnover in the housing market has peaked.

Bull run finale for global stocks not far off now: Reuters poll

Nov 29 2018

BENGALURU An end to the bull run in global stocks is not far away, according to a Reuters poll which also showed a broad cut to forecasts for next year on concerns over global growth and tightening financial conditions. | Video

India house prices to rise at half the rate of inflation in 2019: Reuters poll

Nov 15 2018

BENGALURU India house prices will rise at half the rate of consumer price inflation next year, hit by dwindling credit supply, according to a Reuters poll of housing market experts who said Delhi, the national capital, will be hit hardest.

No rebound for India's reeling rupee seen likely in coming year: Reuters poll

Oct 10 2018

BENGALURU India's battered rupee is expected to stay that way for a while, trading near recent record lows over the coming year even as the Reserve Bank of India is forecast to raise rates in December and once more in 2019, Reuters polling found.

Euro weakness to be limited; dollar to be dethroned next year - Reuters poll

Oct 03 2018

BENGALURU The euro will withstand the latest political turmoil in Italy and any short-term spill will be limited, but it may be another six months before the dominant dollar trade is swept aside, according to a Reuters poll of currency strategists.

With an eye on faltering rupee, RBI to raise rates next week: Reuters poll

Sep 26 2018

BENGALURU The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise interest rates in early October, despite relatively tame inflation, to prop up a retreating rupee, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also trimmed their near-term growth forecasts.

CORRECTED-POLL-With an eye on faltering rupee, RBI to raise rates next week

Sep 26 2018

(Corrects to say deficit in both instances for current account reference in paragraph 15. In paragraph 20, inflation is expected to be significantly lower in the coming quarters, not for the middle of 2019; also fixes expected average Q4 inflation rate to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent) * reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=INREPO%3DECI RBI poll data * reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=INGDPAP GDP poll data * Reuters poll graphic on biggest downside risk to the Indian economy: https://tmsnrt.rs/2xB8sNF?eikon=true By Anisha Sheth and Hari Kishan BENGALURU, Sept 26 The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise interest rates in early October, despite relatively tame inflation, to prop up a retreating rupee, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also trimmed their near-term growth forecasts. In an abrupt change from the last survey conducted two months ago, which predicted rates would stay on hold until this quarter next year, over two-thirds of 61 economists polled Sept. 19-25 said the RBI would lift the repo rate at least once by year-end. Slightly over half said RBI Governor Urjit Patel and the Monetary Policy Committee would deliver a 25 basis point rise to 6.75 percent at the Oct. 5 policy meeting, with one economist calling for a 50 basis point rise. The predicted rate hike would be the RBI's third this year, having lifted borrowing costs in June and August. The U.S. Federal Reserve is forecast to raise rates on Wednesday - its third this year - according a separate Reuters poll. For many analysts, the retreating Indian rupee , which has tumbled nearly 15 percent since the start of the year and is the worst-performing major Asian currency, is likely of concern to policymakers. On Tuesday the rupee, hit recently by growing credit concerns engulfing non-banking financial companies, was trading at 72.68 to the dollar. The finance ministry also wants the RBI to boost liquidity. "For the RBI, I think it becomes necessary to provide a policy response. The question was only of timing," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS in Singapore. "Some would say it (rate hike) could have come sooner ... it probably would have been a bit more beneficial. But better now than never." If the RBI does raise rates, it would be the latest in a series of emerging market central banks that have been pressured into tightening policy in response to a tumbling currency. Fortunately for the RBI, the economy is doing well. The Indian economy is forecast to expand by an annual rate of more than 7 percent every quarter for the next two years, although slower than the surprise 8.2 percent rate clocked last quarter. This means that India will remain the world's fastest growing major economy, but economists have chopped forecasts somewhat for coming quarters. "Although the high growth rate in Q2 might be partly attributed to favourable base effects ... the underlying dynamics of the Indian economy shows that virtually all high-frequency data is flashing green," said Hugo Erken, senior economist at Rabobank. Prices of crude oil - the country's biggest import – have surged by over 20 percent this year. That in turn has swollen the current account deficit to an average 1.9 percent of GDP in the fiscal year that ended in March from 0.7 percent in the 2016-17 fiscal year. The deficit is forecast to widen further to 2.8 percent of GDP in the fiscal year ending in March 2019, before easing slightly to 2.5 percent in 2019-20. Just over half of 49 respondents who answered an additional question said the biggest economic risk over the coming year was higher fuel prices. The escalating U.S.-China trade war has not had a major impact on India so far but has spurred on a broad selloff in emerging market assets since the beginning of this year. The sharp fall in the rupee has not stirred much worry about inflation, however, which was just under 3.7 percent in August, slightly below the 4 percent where the RBI prefers it to be. Inflation is expected to average 4.1 percent this quarter and 4.2 percent next - significantly lower than the predictions in the last poll two months ago - but rise to 5 percent by the middle of 2019. Economists were almost evenly split on whether a weaker rupee posed the biggest upside risk to inflation, with 26 of 51 respondents saying it was. But even if the RBI raises rates on Oct. 5, it will still struggle to keep up with the Fed, which is expected to tighten policy well into next year. "The RBI will have to do more, though that looks unlikely on the grounds of on-target inflation and stress in the financial sector," Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING, wrote in a research note. (Polling by Khushboo Mittal and Vivek Mishra; editing by Ross Finley and Shri Navaratnam)

CORRECTED-POLL-With an eye on faltering rupee, RBI to raise rates next week

Sep 26 2018

(Corrects date of RBI meeting to Oct. 5, not Oct. 4, in third paragraph) * reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/cb-polls?RIC=INREPO%3DECI RBI poll data * reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=INGDPAP GDP poll data * Reuters poll graphic on biggest downside risk to the Indian economy: https://tmsnrt.rs/2xB8sNF?eikon=true By Anisha Sheth and Hari Kishan BENGALURU, Sept 26 The Reserve Bank of India is likely to raise interest rates in early October, despite relatively tame inflation, to prop up a retreating rupee, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also trimmed their near-term growth forecasts. In an abrupt change from the last survey conducted two months ago, which predicted rates would stay on hold until this quarter next year, two-thirds of 61 economists polled Sept. 19-25 said the RBI would lift the repo rate at least once by year-end. Slightly over half said RBI Governor Urjit Patel and the Monetary Policy Committee would deliver a 25-basis-point rise to 6.75 percent at the Oct. 5 policy meeting, with one economist calling for a 50-basis-point rise. The predicted rate hike would be the RBI's third this year, having lifted borrowing costs in June and August. The U.S. Federal Reserve is forecast to raise rates this week - its third this year - according a separate Reuters poll. For many analysts, the retreating Indian rupee , which has tumbled nearly 15 percent since the start of the year and is the worst-performing major Asian currency, is likely of concern to policymakers. On Tuesday the rupee, hit recently by growing credit concerns engulfing non-banking financial companies, was trading at 72.68 to the dollar. The finance ministry also wants RBI to boost liquidity. "For the RBI, I think it becomes necessary to provide a policy response. The question was only of timing," said Radhika Rao, economist at DBS in Singapore. "Some would say it (rate hike) could have come sooner ... it probably would have been a bit more beneficial. But better now than never." If the RBI does raise rates, it would be the latest in a series of emerging market central banks that have been pressured into tightening policy in response to a tumbling currency. Fortunately for the RBI, the economy is doing well. The Indian economy is forecast to expand by an annual rate of more than 7 percent every quarter for the next two years, although slower than the surprise 8.2 percent rate clocked last quarter. This means that India will remain the world's fastest growing major economy, but economists have chopped forecasts somewhat for coming quarters. "Although the high growth rate in Q2 might be partly attributed to favourable base effects ... the underlying dynamics of the Indian economy shows that virtually all high-frequency data is flashing green," said Hugo Erken, senior economist at Rabobank. Prices of crude oil - the country's biggest import – have surged by over 20 percent this year. That in turn has swollen the current account gap to 1.9 percent of GDP, swinging to deficit from a small surplus of 0.7 percent a year ago. That gap is forecast to widen further to 2.8 percent of GDP by the fiscal year ending in March 2019, before easing slightly to 2.5 percent in 2019-20. Just over half of 49 respondents who answered an additional question said the biggest economic risk over the coming year was higher fuel prices. The escalating U.S.-China trade war has not had a major impact on India so far but has spurred on a broad selloff in emerging market assets since the beginning of this year. The sharp fall in the rupee has not stirred much worry about inflation, however, which was just under 3.7 percent in August, slightly below the 4 percent where the RBI prefers it to be. It is expected to average 4.1 percent this quarter and next, but rise to 5 percent by the middle of 2019 - significantly lower than the predictions in the last poll two months ago. Economists were almost evenly split on whether a weaker rupee posed the biggest upside risk to inflation, with 26 of 51 respondents saying it was. But even if the RBI raises rates on Oct. 4, it will still struggle to keep up with the Fed, which is expected to keep tighten policy well into next year. "The RBI will have to do more, though that looks unlikely on the grounds of on-target inflation and stress in the financial sector," Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING, wrote in a research note. (Reporting by Anisha Sheth; polling by Khushboo Mittal and Vivek Mishra; editing by Ross Finley and Shri Navaratnam)

U.S. bond market recession signal not far away, strategists say: Reuters poll

Sep 21 2018

BENGALURU Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields will rise above longer maturities -- a reliable forecaster of recessions -- within two years and possibly in the next year, according to market experts polled by Reuters.

U.S. dollar to keep currency crown this year, but not next - Reuters poll

Sep 06 2018

BENGALURU The U.S. dollar, which has had its best yearly performance since 2015 so far in 2018, will hold on to those gains for the rest of the year but beyond that is unlikely to maintain its ascendancy, a Reuters poll showed.

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