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Naveen Thukral

GRAINS-Soybeans extend declines as U.S.-China trade war drags

Sep 23 2018

* Soybeans down 0.8 pct on lack of Chinese demand for U.S. cargoes * Chicago corn futures ease from 1-1/2-week high, wheat dips (Adds details, quotes) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Sept 24 Chicago soybean futures slid for a second session on Monday as fears of a prolonged trade war between Washington and Beijing weighed on the market with new tariffs taking effect. Corn slid, but the market was trading close to its highest since Sept. 12 with prices underpinned by strong demand and rains delaying harvest in parts of the U.S. Midwest. The Chicago Board Of Trade most-active soybean contract was down 0.8 percent at $8.40-3/4 a bushel, as of 0339 GMT, having closed down 0.4 percent on Friday. Corn slipped 0.4 percent to $3.56 a bushel, having climbed earlier in the session to $3.58 a bushel, matching Friday's highest prices, which were the loftiest since Sept. 12. Wheat dipped 0.1 percent to $5.21 a bushel, having closed down 0.4 percent in the previous session. Soybeans are under pressure as market attention is focused on the massive U.S. crop and the ongoing trade dispute with China, the world's top soybean buyer. The United States and China are set to impose new tit-for-tat tariffs against each other's goods on Monday, the latest escalation in a heated trade war between the world's two largest economies. U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and retaliatory tariffs by Beijing on $60 billion worth of U.S. products are scheduled take effect at 0401 GMT. The United States does not have a scheduled date to announce another round of talks with China, a senior White House official said. Rains slowed corn harvest in the northwestern Midwest last week, supporting prices. "The wet weather prompts some concerns itself. The delay though makes it more likely that crops can be affected by cold snaps," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Some growers might unfortunately lose a chunk of their corn crop. At market scale though the losses are likely to be modest." The U.S. Department of Agriculture said private exporters sold 121,700 tonnes of U.S. corn to unknown destinations in the past day. U.S. export sales data released on Thursday showed weekly corn sales exceeded market estimate at 1.4 million tonnes. Large speculators increased their net short position in CBOT corn futures in the week ended Sept. 18, regulatory data released on Friday showed. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net short position in CBOT wheat and increased their net short position in soybeans. Grains prices at 0339 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 521.00 -0.75 -0.14% -0.29% 533.38 61 CBOT corn 356.00 -1.25 -0.35% +2.96% 363.04 60 CBOT soy 840.75 -6.50 -0.77% +1.30% 850.83 55 CBOT rice 9.88 $0.00 +0.00% +0.87% $10.56 24 WTI crude 71.52 $0.74 +1.05% +1.02% $68.59 69 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.174 -$0.003 -0.30% +0.58% USD/AUD 0.7266 -0.002 -0.32% +0.04% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

GRAINS-Soybeans set for biggest weekly gain in a month on strong demand

Sep 20 2018

* Soybeans up 1.6 pct this week, biggest pct gain since mid-August * Wheat dips after 2 days of strong gains, up for the week (Adds details, quotes) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Sept 21 Chicago soybean futures ticked lower on Friday but the market is poised for its biggest weekly gain in a month as prices recover from a 10-year low, supported by strong demand. Wheat eased, giving up some of the gains over the last two days which were sparked by tightening global supplies following dry weather in several exporting countries including Russia and Australia. The Chicago Board Of Trade most-active soybean contract is up 1.6 percent this week, the biggest weekly gain in five weeks. The contract was trading down 0.7 percent at $8.44 a bushel by GMT 0244 on Friday. Soybeans hit a low of $8.12-1/4 a bushel on Tuesday, the weakest since December 2008. "U.S. soybeans are being exported to Argentina for one reason or another," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "The fact that U.S. soybean prices had fallen enough to find this buying is supportive." Wheat is up 1.7 percent for the week, the biggest weekly gain since Aug. 17 and corn has added about 0.5 percent this week after finishing last week down 4.2 percent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said weekly U.S. soybean export sales topped 900,000 tonnes, surpassing trade expectations. The agency said weekly export sales of U.S. corn were at nearly 1.4 million tonnes, topping a range of trade expectations. The USDA said private exporters sold an additional 160,020 tonnes of U.S. corn to Mexico. There was additional support stemming from adverse weather in parts of the U.S. Midwest. Heavy rains caused localized flooding in parts of the northwest Corn Belt, the Commodity Weather Group said, stalling harvest activity. Commodity funds were net buyers of an estimated 28,000 CBOT corn futures contracts, 14,000 lots of soybeans and 2,000 lots of wheat, traders said. Still, the ongoing U.S.-China trade war is expected to cap soybean prices. China hopes the United States will show sincerity and take steps to correct its behaviour, its commerce ministry said on Thursday, after both countries slapped new tariffs on each other's goods this week in an escalating trade war. China is the world's biggest soybean importer, while U.S. is the second largest exporter. Grains prices at 0244 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 520.50 -3.50 -0.67% +1.96% 535.38 60 CBOT corn 353.50 1.00 +0.28% +2.99% 363.97 58 CBOT soy 844.00 -6.25 -0.74% +3.69% 852.73 60 CBOT rice 9.85 -$0.03 -0.30% -1.99% $10.58 22 WTI crude 70.21 -$0.11 -0.16% -1.28% $68.44 57 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.178 $0.015 +1.29% +0.77% USD/AUD 0.7288 0.014 +1.93% +1.33% (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Amrutha Gayathri)

UPDATE 1-Shanghai steel rebar prices fall 1 pct after 4-session rally

Sep 20 2018

* China's push for infrastructure spending underpins steel prices

GRAINS-Soybeans fall on record U.S. crop, U.S.-China trade woes; wheat eases

Sep 19 2018

* Soybeans drop for five out six sessions * Market faces pressure from harvest of record U.S. crop * Trade war raises doubts over U.S. bean exports to China * Wheat dips after two days of strong gains (Adds details, quotes) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Sept 20 Chicago soybeans lost ground on Thursday with the market falling for five out of six sessions and trading near a 10-year low, weighed down by the Sino-U.S. trade war which comes amid an all-time high U.S. crop. Wheat ticked lower after strong gains over the last two sessions on the back of tightening global supplies. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade slipped 0.4 percent at $8.26-1/2 a bushel by 0329 GMT. Soybeans hit their lowest since December 2008 at $8.12-1/4 a bushel on Tuesday. Wheat was down 0.4 percent at $5.20-1/4 a bushel, having closed up 2.4 percent on Wednesday and corn fell 0.1 percent at $3.45-1/4 a bushel, having gained 0.7 percent in the previous session. "We have a record crop in the United States and the trade war has reduced China's demand for soybeans, the market is unlikely to rise or sustain gains in this situation," said Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist with National Australia Bank. Soybean prices have come under sustained pressure from the U.S.-China trade war. The American Soybean Association (ASA) will continue to lobby Washington to negotiate a solution to end the escalating trade war between China and the United States, association president John Heisdorffer said on Thursday at an industry conference. In July, Beijing imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of U.S. imports, including soybeans, in retaliation for a similar move by Washington on Chinese goods, threatening U.S. exports of the oilseed worth almost $13 billion last year. The wheat market is being underpinned by crop-threatening weather in some of the key exporting countries against the backdrop of strong demand. Traders have also been monitoring dry conditions and the potential for more cold weather in Australia, a key wheat exporter, following possible frost damage last weekend. Egypt's main state wheat buyer on Tuesday booked 475,000 tonnes of wheat for two shipment periods, Syria bought about 200,000 tonnes of Russian wheat, and Turkey's state grain board issued a tender for around 252,000 tonnes of wheat. Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, wheat, soybean and soymeal futures contracts on Wednesday and net even in soyoil futures, traders said. Grains prices at 0329 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 520.25 -2.25 -0.43% +2.77% 537.61 61 CBOT corn 345.25 -0.50 -0.14% -0.79% 365.00 47 CBOT soy 826.50 -3.50 -0.42% +0.36% 854.83 50 CBOT rice 9.98 $0.19 +1.89% -3.11% $10.62 29 WTI crude 71.66 $0.54 +0.76% +2.59% $68.35 70 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.168 $0.006 +0.47% -0.04% USD/AUD 0.7256 0.011 +1.48% +0.89% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Sunil Nair)

GRAINS-Soybeans near decade low on record U.S. crop, Brazil weather

Sep 19 2018

* Soybeans tick up after deep losses, trade near 10-year low * All-time high U.S. crop, crop-friendly Brazilian weather weigh * Wheat rises for a second session on global supply concerns (Adds details on Brazilian weather, quotes) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Sept 19 Chicago soybean futures ticked higher on Wednesday, snapping four days of losing streak, but the market is trading close to previous session's 10-year low on pressure from a record U.S. crop and crop-friendly weather in Brazil. Wheat gained more ground as tightening global supplies underpinned the market. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade was up 0.2 percent at $8.15-1/4 a bushel, as of 0356 GMT, having closed down 1.1 percent on Tuesday when prices hit $8.12-1/4 a bushel, their lowest since 2008. Wheat climbed 0.6 percent to $5.13-1/2 a bushel, having gained 0.9 percent in the previous session. Corn rose 0.2 percent to $3.43-3/4 a bushel, having closed 1.4 percent weaker on Tuesday. "Spot soybean prices fell sharply in Brazil and the United States yesterday," said Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural strategy, Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "That suggests that some more general harvest pressure is beginning to affect the whole oilseed market rather than just U.S. prices falling to pay for China's tariff." The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast a record U.S. soybean crop this year. The agency said the U.S. soybean harvest was 6 percent complete, above the five-year average of 3 percent. U.S. corn harvesting was 9 percent complete, ahead of the five-year average of 6 percent, it said. Brazilian farmers sped up soybean and corn plantings this week for the country's next grain crop, under favourable weather conditions and a positive market outlook. Soybean planting in Brazil's second-largest producing state of Paraná reached 9 percent of the expected final area this week, up 8 percentage points from last week and compared with only 1 percent at this time last year, as ample soil moisture allowed for a quick start of fieldwork. Soybeans have faced pressure from U.S.-China trade dispute. Beijing added $60 billion of U.S. products to its import tariff list in retaliation for President Donald Trump's planned levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China is by far the world's top soybean importer, while the United States is the No. 2 exporter. Wheat drew support from possible frost damage over the weekend in western Australia. Russia's agriculture ministry projected 2018/19 wheat exports at 30 million tonnes, below the USDA's last estimate of 35 million. Egypt's state grains buyer GASC booked 180,000 tonnes of wheat for shipment over Nov. 1-10 and a further 295,000 tonnes for shipment over Nov. 11-20. GASC said that all of the wheat was Russian, apart from one 60,000-tonne cargo of Ukrainian wheat. Grains prices at 0356 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 513.50 3.00 +0.59% +0.39% 539.97 58 CBOT corn 343.75 0.50 +0.15% -2.27% 366.33 43 CBOT soy 815.25 1.25 +0.15% -1.84% 857.52 35 CBOT rice 10.05 $0.01 +0.05% -4.19% $10.65 19 WTI crude 69.82 -$0.03 -0.04% +1.32% $68.15 59 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.167 $0.004 +0.39% -0.13% USD/AUD 0.7240 0.009 +1.26% +0.67% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

GRAINS-Soybeans drop to 10-year low on record U.S. crop, China demand woes

Sep 18 2018

* Soybeans little changed after falling to lowest since 2008 * Record U.S. crop, lack of Chinese demand drags down beans * Corn at three-month low on all-time high U.S. yields (Adds charts, technicals, updates prices) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Sept 18 Chicago soybean futures dropped to a 10-year low on Tuesday as the harvest of a record U.S. crop advanced rapidly amid a growing trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. Corn slid to a three-month low on U.S. harvest pressure, while wheat bounced back on worries over drought curbing supplies in key exporting countries. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade added 0.2 percent to $8.24-3/4 a bushel by 0550 GMT, after earlier dropping to its weakest since 2008 at $8.19-3/4 a bushel. Corn gained 0.1 percent at $3.48-1/4 a bushel, but was not far from the session low of $3.47-1/2 a bushel - the lowest since June 20. Wheat was up 0.4 percent at $5.08-1/2 a bushel, having closed down 0.8 percent on Wednesday. "The soybean market has a lot of bearish news to digest," said one India-based agricultural commodities analyst. "We are expecting the USDA to further raise its yield estimates as the U.S. crop is looking bigger." After the market closed on Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the soybean harvest was 6 percent complete, just above the average analyst estimate of 5 percent and ahead of the five-year average of 3 percent. The U.S. corn harvest was 9 percent complete, near an average of analyst estimates for 10 percent and ahead of the five-year average of 6 percent, the agency said. The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members crushed 158.885 million bushels of soybeans in August, a figure that fell below a range of trade expectations. Soybeans came under further pressure amid renewed hostilities in trade war between United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with China on Monday, imposing 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, but sparing smart watches from Apple and Fitbit and other consumer products such as bicycle helmets and baby car seats. China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybean imports have already taken a toll on shipments of the oilseed to the world's biggest buyer. On the technical front, the CBOT soybeans November contract may break a support at $8.19 per bushel and fall more to the next support at $8.08-3/4, according to Wang Tao, Reuters analyst for commodities and energy technicals. In the wheat market, there were concerns over frost damage in Australia. Possible frost damage over the weekend in Western Australia threatened to further dent a crop already diminished by drought in the east. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat, soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts on Monday, traders said. Grains prices at 0550 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 508.50 2.25 +0.44% +2.31% 542.73 56 CBOT corn 348.25 0.25 +0.07% -0.64% 367.72 50 CBOT soy 824.75 1.25 +0.15% -1.02% 860.17 42 CBOT rice 10.22 -$0.09 -0.83% -5.15% $10.69 24 WTI crude 68.60 -$0.31 -0.45% -0.57% $68.09 48 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.169 $0.006 +0.52% +0.01% USD/AUD 0.7197 0.005 +0.66% +0.07% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Amrutha Gayathri and Richard Pullin)

GRAINS-Soybeans drop to 10-year low on record U.S. crop, China demand woes

Sep 18 2018

* Soybeans little changed after falling to lowest since 2008 * Record U.S. crop, lack of Chinese demand drag down beans * Corn at three-month low on all-time high U.S. yields (Adds details, quotes) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Sept 18 Chicago soybean futures dropped to a 10-year low on Tuesday as harvest of a record U.S. crop advanced rapidly amid a growing trade dispute between Washington and Beijing. Corn slid to a three-month low on U.S. harvest pressure while wheat bounced back on worries over drought curbing supplies in key exporting countries. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade added 0.1 percent to $8.24-1/4 a bushel by 0347 GMT, after dropping to its weakest since 2008 at $8.19-3/4 a bushel. Corn was unchanged at $3.48 a bushel, near the session low of $3.47-1/2 a bushel - the lowest since June 20. Wheat was up 0.6 percent at $5.09-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 0.8 percent on Wednesday. "The soybean market has a lot of bearish news to digest," said one India-based agricultural commodities analyst. "We are expecting the USDA to further raise its yield estimates as the U.S. crop is looking bigger." After the market closed on Monday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said the soybean harvest was 6 percent complete, just above the average analyst estimate of 5 percent and ahead of the five-year average of 3 percent. U.S. corn harvest was 9 percent complete, near an average of analyst estimates for 10 percent and ahead of the five-year average of 6 percent, the agency said. The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members crushed 158.885 million bushels of soybeans in August, a figure that fell below a range of trade expectations. Soybeans came under further pressure amid renewed hostilities in trade war between United States and China. U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with China on Monday, imposing 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, but sparing smart watches from Apple and Fitbit and other consumer products such as bicycle helmets and baby car seats. China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybean imports have already taken a toll on shipments of the oilseed to the world's biggest buyer. In the wheat market, there were concerns over frost damage in Australia. Possible frost damage over the weekend in Western Australia threatened to further dent a crop already diminished by drought in the east. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat, soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts on Monday, traders said. Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 509.25 3.00 +0.59% +2.46% 542.76 56 CBOT corn 348.00 0.00 +0.00% -0.71% 367.71 50 CBOT soy 824.25 0.75 +0.09% -1.08% 860.15 42 CBOT rice 10.22 -$0.09 -0.83% -5.15% $10.69 24 WTI crude 68.60 -$0.31 -0.45% -0.57% $68.09 48 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.169 $0.007 +0.57% +0.05% USD/AUD 0.7191 0.004 +0.57% -0.01% (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Amrutha Gayathri)

GRAINS-Wheat up for 2nd day on Russian supply concerns, soybeans extend losses

Sep 16 2018

* Russian grain quality controls seen slowing wheat exports * Soybeans fall for 3rd session as record U.S. crop looms (Adds details on Russian supply issues, quotes) By Naveen Thukral SINGAPORE, Sept 17 Chicago wheat futures rose for a second session Monday, with the market hitting its highest since Sept. 12 on concerns over quality controls in Russia that are expected to delay shipments from the world's biggest supplier. Soybeans lost more ground, falling for four out of five sessions, as an all-time high U.S. crop weighed on the market. The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board Of Trade gained 0.5 percent to $5.14 a bushel by 0217 GMT, after earlier climbing to its highest since Sept. 12 at $5.18 a bushel. Soybeans slid 0.6 percent to $8.25-1/4 a bushel, having closed down 0.3 percent on Friday and corn lost 0.4 percent to $3.50-1/4 a bushel, having gained 0.4 percent in the previous session. "As the global wheat balance sheet continues to tighten, we expect prices to remain supported," said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney. "Drought conditions which devastated the European and Russian crops this season warrant a harsher slash to final yield estimates." The wheat market is being underpinned by fears that Russia could limit exports. Russia's food safety watchdog has beefed up quality controls on grain exports due to complaints from major buyers and the lower quality of the crop, it said on Friday, adding that the more stringent checks were not aimed at limiting grain exports. Traders have been watching for any changes to regulations, which have been used in the past to place informal curbs on exports. Some traders said the new controls were excessive and could cause delivery disruptions on signed contracts. Soybeans faced pressure as U.S. farmers gear up to harvest their biggest crop. U.S. soybean plants continued their recent strong crushing pace in August to capitalize on robust profit margins for processing the oilseed into meal and oil, analysts said ahead of a monthly National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report. NOPA members, who handle about 95 percent of all soybeans processed in the United States, likely crushed 163.870 million bushels of soybeans last month, according to an average of estimates given by eight analysts in a Reuters survey. U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to announce new tariffs on about $200 billion of Chinese imports as early as Monday, a senior administration official told Reuters on Saturday, weighing on market sentiment towards soybeans. Large speculators increased their net short position in CBOT corn futures in the week to Sept. 11, regulatory data released on Friday showed. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that noncommercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net short position in CBOT wheat and soybeans. Grains prices at 0217 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 514.00 2.50 +0.49% +3.42% 542.92 56 CBOT corn 350.25 -1.50 -0.43% -0.07% 367.78 51 CBOT soy 825.25 -5.25 -0.63% -0.96% 860.18 43 CBOT rice 10.49 $0.00 +0.00% -2.42% $10.74 32 WTI crude 68.88 -$0.11 -0.16% +0.42% $68.10 49 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.163 $0.000 -0.01% -0.52% USD/AUD 0.7150 0.000 +0.00% -0.58% (Reporting by Naveen Thukral; editing by Richard Pullin)

GRAINS-Wheat heads for 2nd weekly drop, corn near 11-week low on supply pressure

Sep 13 2018

* Wheat trades near 2-month low on USDA's Russian crop forecast

GRAINS-Corn firms after deep losses on higher U.S. output, while soybeans ease

Sep 12 2018

* China's soybean futures under pressure amid trade talks (Recasts, adds quotes, details)

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