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Patturaja Murugaboopathy

Worries on demand, profit outlook and trade dent global tech shares

Oct 24 2018

Global tech stocks have lost about $1 trillion or 9 percent of market value this month, Refinitiv data showed, hurt by worries over slowing global demand, valuations and trade tensions between the United States and China.

Foreigners sell Asian bonds in September on rising U.S. yields

Oct 18 2018

Foreigners net sold Asian bonds for the first time in three months in September as rising U.S. yields and a stronger dollar undermined the allure of regional assets.

Foreigners sell Asian bonds in Sept on rising U.S. yields

Oct 18 2018

Oct 18 Foreigners net sold Asian bonds for the first time in three months in September as rising U.S. yields and a stronger dollar undermined the allure of regional assets.

Foreigners sold Asian equities in September on higher U.S. yields, slowing growth

Oct 09 2018

Foreign investors were net sellers in most Asian equity markets in September, as a stronger dollar, higher U.S. interest rates and earnings downgrades undermined the appetite for regional stocks.

Foreigners sold Asian equities in Sept on higher U.S. yields, slowing growth

Oct 09 2018

Oct 9 Foreign investors were net sellers in most Asian equity markets in September, as a stronger dollar, higher U.S. interest rates and earnings downgrades undermined the appetite for regional stocks.

Banks, brokerages cut forecasts for emerging market firms

Oct 08 2018

Slower growth at the developing world's big homegrown companies in the second quarter has led analysts to cut their profit and price estimates sharply since the end of June, according to a Reuters analysis of data on thousands of listed firms.

EM ASIA FX-Asian currencies edge up as markets reassess trade war disruptions

Sep 21 2018

(Adds analyst comments, price moves and graphic) By Patturaja Murugaboopathy Sept 21 Asian currencies strengthened for the third consecutive day on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar and shifting views over how much damage the Sino-U.S. trade war will inflict on global demand and export-reliant regional economies. On Tuesday, Washington imposed 10 percent tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, while Beijing announced new retaliatory levies on about $60 billion worth of U.S. goods. However, the initial tariff rates imposed by both sides were lower than expected, with the United States delaying stiffer duties for another few months, reducing the risk of a sudden, sharp blow to the global economy from the escalation. The dollar index has fallen more than 1 percent this week. Analysts said investment flows are being diverted away from the greenback to its peers such as emerging market currencies as trade tensions have ebbed. "A significant factor in adding to the current run of dollar weakness is the drop on safe-haven appeal after China suggested they won't weaponise yuan in a trade war," said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia-Pacific at OANDA in Singapore. "Regional risk is very steady supported by thriving global equity markets, a slightly weaker dollar and a positive glean that North Korea's leader Kim Jung-un has asked for a second summit with President Trump." Analysts said the reports that China will further reduce import tariffs for the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month also supported risk sentiment in the region. "ASEAN nations may benefit from an expansion of trade with China as trade barriers are reduced, with China possibly reweighting the importance of the region due to the trade war," said Chang Wei Liang, FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. The Indian rupee and the Indonesian rupiah drew comfort from their governments' proposed measures to shore up their currencies this week. India is considering asking the central bank to offer dollars directly to oil marketing companies and is likely to announce curbs on imports of "non-essential" items to stem the rupee. On Thursday, Indonesia's finance minister said the government is aiming to persuade exports to keep their earnings onshore and convert them into local currency. The Indian rupee climbed 0.75 percent on the day leading the regional currencies gains, followed by the South Korean won, which rose nearly 0.4 percent. China's yuan firmed after the Chinese central bank said it would issue bills in Hong Kong to allow it better manage offshore yuan liquidity. The Hong Kong dollar advanced about 0.2 percent against the dollar in early Friday trade, hitting its highest levels since late February. Data from regional central banks showed their foreign exchange reserves have fallen in the past three months, reflecting their efforts to prevent declines in their currencies. Regional currencies have fallen sharply on concerns over Sino-U.S. trade war and fears of contagion from Turkey and other volatile emerging markets in the last few months. "Further declines in most AXJ foreign reserves are likely especially as currency defence may take on added significance ahead of critical general/presidential elections in Thailand, Indonesia and India next year," said MUFG Bank in a report. A recent Reuters poll showed that bearish bets on Asian currencies have risen over the last two weeks. The following table shows rates for Asian currencies against the dollar at 0522 GMT. CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR Change as of 0522 GMT Currency Latest Previous Pct bid day Move Japan yen 112.760 112.48 -0.25 Sing dlr 1.364 1.3644 +0.06 Taiwan dlr 30.734 30.795 +0.20 Korean won 1116.80 1120.4 +0.32 0 Baht 32.380 32.38 +0.00 Peso 54.020 54.075 +0.10 Rupiah 14825.0 14840 +0.10 00 Rupee 71.870 72.37 +0.70 Ringgit 4.128 4.135 +0.17 Yuan 6.841 6.8460 +0.07 Change so far in 2018 Currency Latest End 2017 Pct bid Move Japan yen 112.760 112.67 -0.08 Sing dlr 1.364 1.3373 -1.93 Taiwan dlr 30.734 29.848 -2.88 Korean won 1116.80 1070.50 -4.15 0 Baht 32.380 32.58 +0.62 Peso 54.020 49.93 -7.57 Rupiah 14825.0 13565 -8.50 00 Rupee 71.870 63.87 -11.1 3 Ringgit 4.128 4.0440 -2.03 Yuan 6.841 6.5069 -4.89 (Reporting by Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Additional Reporting by Gaurav Dogra; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Asian currencies firm as investors look past trade concerns

Sep 20 2018

Asian currencies strengthened on Thursday, supported by a broader swing higher in risk sentiment as investors appeared to brush aside concerns about the impact of the Sino-U.S. trade war on emerging markets.

EM ASIA FX-Asian units fall on US tariffs, recover on hopes tensions can ease

Sep 18 2018

(Adds analyst comments, price moves and graphic) By Patturaja Murugaboopathy Sept 18 Most emerging Asian currencies fell early on Tuesday on news the United States was imposing more tariffs on imports from China, but some recovered as Beijing did not quickly announce retaliatory moves. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he will impose 10 percent U.S. tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and warned he would pursue more tariffs if China retaliates. Up until now, the United States and China have applied tariffs to $50 billion of each other's goods. As of 0600 GMT Tuesday, the Chinese government had not issued a statement on the U.S. move. But on Tuesday morning, China released comments by Commerce Minister Zhong Shan on Monday to foreign investors that "there was no winner in a trade war and that cooperation was the only correct choice". The comments provided some lift to China's yuan and other regional currencies. The yuan, which fell as much as 0.35 percent early on Tuesday, trimmed its losses to just 0.1 percent. Traders said the renewed Sino-U.S. trade tension piled pressure on the yuan, but market participants refrained from aggressively testing lows for fear the authorities may quickly step in. The minister's remarks are "supporting Asian currencies' sentiment on hopes that negotiations can proceed from here," said Chang Wei Liang, FX strategist at Mizuho Bank. The Thai baht, Singapore dollar and the South Korean won gained on the day, taking cues from the rebound in the yuan. Thailand, Singapore and South Korea form a major part of China's supply chain and their currencies are the most affected if trade tensions escalate between the United States and China. The Indonesian rupiah led the regional decliners on the day, shedding more than 0.3 percent. Saktiandi Supaat, head of FX research at Maybank, said the central bank intervention in the rupiah and bond markets and "increasing speculation that BI (Bank Indonesia) could act again by hiking its policy rate through an out-of-cycle meeting" should help the currency. A Bank Indonesia deputy governor said on Tuesday the central bank will intervene in the market in a "measured manner" to maintain rupiah stability. With a fall of 9.1 percent, the rupiah is the second biggest loser in Asia this year, after the Indian rupee Declines in the crude oil prices propped up the Indian rupee. India is a major oil importer and lesser oil prices tend to reduce the external deficits, strengthening the rupee. "Focus is less on the EM stress points and shifted towards the trade war so the rupee is likely to be less hurt vs. other regional FX," said Maybank's Supaat. The following table shows rates for Asian currencies against the dollar at 0540 GMT. CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR Change as of 0540 GMT Currency Latest Previous Pct bid day Move Japan yen 111.950 111.83 -0.11 Sing dlr 1.371 1.3717 +0.05 Taiwan dlr 30.807 30.805 -0.01 Korean won 1125.90 1126.6 +0.06 0 Baht 32.580 32.63 +0.15 Peso 54.140 54.11 -0.06 Rupiah 14925.0 14870 -0.37 00 Rupee 72.465 72.51 +0.06 Ringgit 4.144 4.137 -0.17 Yuan 6.864 6.8553 -0.12 Change so far in 2018 Currency Latest End 2017 Pct bid Move Japan yen 111.950 112.67 +0.64 Sing dlr 1.371 1.3373 -2.46 Taiwan dlr 30.807 29.848 -3.11 Korean won 1125.90 1070.50 -4.92 0 Baht 32.580 32.58 +0.00 Peso 54.140 49.93 -7.78 Rupiah 14925.0 13565 -9.11 00 Rupee 72.465 63.87 -11.8 6 Ringgit 4.144 4.0440 -2.41 Yuan 6.864 6.5069 -5.20 (Reporting by Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

EM ASIA FX-Asian currencies fall on fear of wider U.S-China trade war

Sep 17 2018

(Adds comments, details on rupee and rupiah, updates numbers) By Patturaja Murugaboopathy Sept 17 Most Asian currencies dropped significantly on Monday on worries that the U.S-China trade dispute could escalate, deepening fears of a global trade war. The two emerging Asian currencies most under pressure - the Indonesian rupiah and the Indian rupee - both fall sharply, partly because of worries on the global picture and because of domestic factors. U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to announce tariffs on about $200 billion on Chinese imports as early as Monday, a senior administration official told Reuters on Saturday. Other media reports say U.S. action would prompt immediate retaliation from China, which might cancel plans to send senior officials to Washington for trade talks soon. Last week, Asian currencies were propped up by prospects of renewed talks between the world's two biggest economies. But implementation of fresh tariffs by Trump administration could prompt investors to discard regional assets and seek refuge in the dollar. Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy for Mizuho Bank in Singapore, said another round of tit-for-tat tariffs between the US and China would "sour the stage for high-level US-China trade talks", in turn unnecessarily raising the bar for an agreement between the two giants. The biggest loser early on Monday was the Indian rupee, down 1.1 percent, followed by the South Korean won, off 1.07 percent. With a fall of nearly 12 percent, the Indian rupee is Asia's worst performing currency against the dollar this year. On Friday, the Indian government announced steps on Friday to stem its decline. India's finance minister said the government plans to cut down "non-necessary" imports, ease overseas borrowing norms for the manufacturing sector and relax rules around banks raising rupee-denominated overseas bonds. However, analysts doubt the government's steps will stem rupee's declines. "The rupee is unlikely to get much support from measures to support the rupee," MUFG Bank said on Monday, saying the steps are "deemed to be insufficient" to stop the declines. "In an environment of rising interest rates, corporates may refrain from obtaining more overseas loans, and in a risk-off environment when foreign investors are net sellers of both Indian equities and bonds, raising the FPI (foreign portfolio investment) limits is unlikely to yield more capital inflows," it said. The Indonesian rupiah was down more than 0.5 percent for the day after the government posted a bigger-than-expected trade deficit for August. Southeast Asia's largest economy had a trade deficit of $1.02 billion, much larger than the $680 million expected in a Reuters poll. The rupiah has fallen nearly 9 percent this year and is the region's second worst-performing currency. To help the rupiah, the Indonesian central bank has raised interest rates four times since mid-May, and many analysts expect another hike this month. The following table shows rates for Asian currencies against the dollar at 0508 GMT. CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR Change as of 0508 GMT Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move Japan yen 111.990 112.04 +0.04 Sing dlr 1.375 1.3740 -0.09 Taiwan dlr 30.796 30.760 -0.12 Korean won 1128.000 1116.6 -1.01 Baht 32.660 32.54 -0.37 Peso 54.090 53.97 -0.22 Rupiah 14885.000 14800 -0.57 Rupee 72.635 71.85 -1.09 Yuan 6.870 6.8680 -0.03 *Malaysian markets are closed for holiday Change so far in 2018 Currency Latest bid End 2017 Pct Move Japan yen 111.990 112.67 +0.61 Sing dlr 1.375 1.3373 -2.76 Taiwan dlr 30.796 29.848 -3.08 Korean won 1128.000 1070.50 -5.10 Baht 32.660 32.58 -0.24 Peso 54.090 49.93 -7.69 Rupiah 14885.000 13565 -8.87 Rupee 72.635 63.87 -12.07 Ringgit 4.137 4.0440 -2.25 Yuan 6.870 6.5069 -5.29 (Reporting by Patturaja Murugaboopathy in Bengaluru; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

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