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Radu-Sorin Marinas

CEE MARKETS-Central European forex eases in subdued trade, eyes on U.S. data

Jul 05 2019

* CEE currencies seen firming slightly on ECB easing-POLL * U.S. non-farm payroll data awaited * Romania's central bank keeps rate on hold as expected * Trade muted, Czech market closed By Radu-Sorin Marinas BUCHAREST, July 5 Central European currencies edged down in thin trade on Friday, tracking the euro's moves, with Czech markets closed for a holiday and traders waiting for the publication of U.S. jobs data. By 0840 GMT, the Hungarian forint led regional losses, falling 0.2% against the euro as the Romanian leu slipped 0.1% and the Polish zloty traded marginally lower at 4.244. Regional stocks were mixed, with Budapest gaining 0.4% percent, while Warsaw was 0.2% lower on the day. Earlier in the session, Hungary sold 5-year and 10-year bonds, but scrapped a 3-year bond auction. A Reuters poll sees Central Europe's main currencies firming slightly against the euro in the coming year, as central banks in the region point to stable rates ahead in contrast to the easing signalled in Frankfurt and Washington. A surge in wages has boosted economic growth in Central Europe, accelerating inflation, in contrast with a slowdown in the euro zone. On Thursday, Romania's central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 2.50% despite rising inflation, with central bank governor Mugur Isarescu saying the rate was high enough considering the recent firming of the leu currency. "(The) governor ... cited 'significant' capital inflows in yesterday's press briefing which followed the key rate decision, leading him to state 'we don’t want the exchange rate to appreciate'. For now, the market doesn’t appear to be listening, as selling interest in euro/leu still prevails," ING said. Elsewhere, Hungary's industrial output rose by an annual 8.7 percent in May based on preliminary unadjusted data, well above analyst forecasts. "The latest industrial figures can again be seen as proof that so far the performance of the sector has proved surprisingly resilient to global (especially German) slowdown, mainly stemming from trade conflicts and increased uncertainties in the European business sector." Erste said. CEE SNAPSHOT AT 1010 MARKETS CET CURRENCIES Latest Previous Daily Change bid close chang in 2019 e Czech <EURCZK= 0.0000 25.4660 -0.02 +0.93% crown > % Hungary <EURHUF= 323.2900 322.6500 -0.20 -0.68% forint > % Polish <EURPLN= 4.2440 4.2430 -0.02 +1.07% zloty > % Romanian <EURRON= 4.7209 4.7167 -0.09 -1.42% leu > % Croatian <EURHRK= 7.3970 7.3985 +0.0 +0.18% kuna > 2% Serbian <EURRSD= 117.5600 117.7500 +0.1 +0.63% dinar > 6% Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Daily Change close chang in 2019 e Prague 1052.10 1052.1000 +0.0 +6.64% 0% Budapest 41133.74 40972.92 +0.3 +5.10% 9% Warsaw 2353.23 2356.49 -0.14 +3.36% % Bucharest 8907.37 8917.19 -0.11 +20.64% % Ljubljana <.SBITOP 891.46 890.47 +0.1 +10.84% > 1% Zagreb 1893.91 1891.84 +0.1 +8.30% 1% Belgrade <.BELEX1 741.91 742.59 -0.09 -2.60% 5> % Sofia 582.50 582.29 +0.0 -2.01% 4% BONDS Yield Yield Sprea Daily d (bid) change vs change in Bund Czech spread Republic 2-year <CZ2YT=R 1.5990 0.1200 +235 +12bps R> bps 5-year <CZ5YT=R 1.2400 0.0020 +194 +0bps R> bps 10-year <CZ10YT= 1.4890 -0.0050 +188 -1bps RR> bps Poland 2-year <PL2YT=R 1.5830 0.0040 +233 +1bps R> bps 5-year <PL5YT=R 1.8710 0.0010 +257 +0bps R> bps 10-year <PL10YT= 2.2830 0.0010 +268 +0bps RR> bps FORWARD RATE AGREEMENT 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interbank Czech Rep 2.17 2.10 2.00 2.17 <PRIBOR= > Hungary 0.29 0.41 0.49 0.25 Poland 1.74 1.73 1.70 1.72 Note: FRA are for ask prices quotes ************************************************* ************* (Editing by Andrew Heavens)

Romania's president eyes new term, not EU's top job

Jun 29 2019

BUCHAREST Romania's centrist President Klaus Iohannis said on Saturday he would decline any offer to get the European Union's top job, seeking instead to win a fresh term as the country's president.

CEE MARKETS-CEE currencies edge lower, all eyes on Fed

Jun 19 2019

By Radu-Sorin Marinas BUCHAREST, June 19 Central European currencies eased marginally on Wednesday in cautious trade ahead of the outcome of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, with little impact from ECB chief Mario Draghi's unexpectedly strong hints about more stimulus. The Fed, which concludes its latest policy meeting on Wednesday, is expected to leave interest rates on hold but flag whether it plans to cut rates later this year. Traders say a lower path for U.S. interest rates and a weaker dollar would be generally positive for currencies in the European Union's emerging east. "Emerging market currency traders patiently await the outcome of the US Fed's meeting later today. Indeed, US rates as well as the euro/dollar exchange rate are key systemic drivers for asset prices," analysts at Raiffeisen said. If Fed comments confirm to investors that they have been too optimistic about the timing of U.S. rate cuts, the dollar may strengthen and U.S. bond yields rebound, potentially causing a weakening of Central European currencies and bonds. A more hawkish than expected US stance, however, can lead to a significant sell-off in emerging currencies, said Raiffeisen. ECB policymakers were divided on Tuesday after Draghi hinted at new stimulus measures that had yet to be discussed by the ECB's Governing Council. Draghi told an ECB conference the central bank would ease policy again if inflation fails to accelerate, saying that fresh bond purchases, rate cuts or changes to the ECB's policy guidance had all been "raised and discussed" at a meeting of the ECB Governing Council less than two weeks ago. The forint traded 0.17% down on the day by 0910 GMT, followed by the Polish zloty and Czech crown with 0.15% and 0.14% drops respectively. The Romanian leu was flat at 4.7260 to the euro. Czechs auction a euro-denominated domestic bond, with Komercni Banka trader Dalimil Vyskovsky saying that "with the Draghi message yesterday we expect demand to be strongish again despite the paper being issued under domestic law and thus limiting the range of investors that can subscribe." CEE SNAPSHOT AT MARKETS 1157 CET CURRENCIES Latest Previous Dail Change y bid close chan in 2019 ge Czech 25.6390 25.6000 -0.1 +0.27% crown 5% Hungary 323.7000 323.2000 -0.1 -0.81% forint 5% Polish 4.2683 4.2609 -0.1 +0.50% zloty 7% Romanian 4.7260 4.7228 -0.0 -1.52% leu 7% Croatian 7.4050 7.4053 +0. +0.07% kuna 00% Serbian 117.8500 117.8900 +0. +0.38% dinar 03% Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Latest Previous Dail Change y close chan in 2019 ge Prague 1057.67 1055.180 +0. +7.21% 0 24% Budapest 40998.31 40922.41 +0. +4.75% 19% Warsaw 2322.59 2325.16 -0.1 +2.02% 1% Bucharest 8570.74 8525.82 +0. +16.08% 53% Ljubljana 879.13 873.95 +0. +9.31% 59% Zagreb 1898.22 1899.99 -0.0 +8.54% 9% Belgrade 720.21 720.41 -0.0 -5.45% 3% Sofia 578.64 578.05 +0. -2.66% 10% BONDS Yield Yield Spre Daily ad (bid) change vs change in Bund Czech spread Republic 2-year 1.5940 0.0410 +23 +1bps 1bps 5-year 1.4560 -0.0020 +21 -4bps 1bps 10-year <CZ10YT=RR 1.5530 -0.0110 +18 -4bps > 5bps Poland 2-year 1.5760 -0.0120 +22 -4bps 9bps 5-year 1.9670 -0.0180 +26 -5bps 2bps 10-year <PL10YT=RR 2.3770 0.0350 +26 +1bps > 7bps FORWARD RATE AGREEMEN T 3x6 6x9 9x12 3M interbank Czech Rep <P 2.15 2.04 1.88 2.17 RIBOR=> Hungary <B 0.29 0.40 0.50 0.00 UBOR=> Poland <W 1.74 1.73 1.71 1.72 IBOR=> Note: FRA are for ask prices quotes ************************************************* ************* For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets: All emerging market news Spot FX rates Eastern Europe spot FX Middle East spot FX Asia spot FX Latin America spot FX Other news and reports World central bank news Economic Data Guide Official rates Emerging Diary Top events Diaries Diaries Index (Editing by Hugh Lawson)

Romania's government survives no-confidence vote

Jun 18 2019

BUCHAREST Romania's Social Democrat (PSD) coalition government survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote on Tuesday, strengthening Prime Minister Viorica Dancila's chances of being confirmed as PSD leader at a party congress this month.

Pope urges Romanian leaders to shun personal interests, seek common good

May 31 2019

BUCHAREST Pope Francis urged Romania's leaders on Friday to shun personal interests and work together for the common good, arriving in the former communist country amid political upheaval caused by a corruption scandal. | Video

Romania's ruling party chief jailed for corruption

May 27 2019

BUCHAREST The leader of Romania's ruling Social Democrats Liviu Dragnea began a three-and-a-half year prison sentence on Monday after the Supreme Court upheld a graft conviction one day after his party lost a European election to centrist groupings.

Romanians punish ruling party in anti-graft referendum, EU poll

May 26 2019

BUCHAREST Romanians overwhelmingly rejected measures seen as making it harder to tackle rampant state corruption in a non-binding referendum on Sunday, dealing a double blow to the ruling Social Democrats (PSD) who also lost support in European elections.

Romanians punish ruling party in anti-graft referendum, EU poll

May 26 2019

BUCHAREST Romanians overwhelmingly rejected measures seen as making it harder to tackle rampant state corruption in a non-binding referendum on Sunday, dealing a double blow to the ruling Social Democrats (PSD) who also lost support in European elections.

Romania opposition targets ruling party after EU vote

May 17 2019

BUCHAREST The Romanian government's falling ratings show popular discontent over its erosion of the judiciary and will encourage rivals to try and topple them after the May 26 European Parliament vote, the main opposition party said on Friday.

Romanian Senate approves draft bill that could close graft cases

Apr 17 2019

BUCHAREST Romania's Senate approved changes to the criminal code on Wednesday that could shut down a number of ongoing high-level graft cases in one of the European Union's most corrupt states.

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