One of the scariest notions about America's sluggish labor market recovery is that it doesn't represent an aberration, but rather a new reality in which good jobs are few and far between, particularly for those with limited skills. It is certainly possible that the future will be brighter than we think, and that we will soon enter a new economic Golden Age in which people with low education levels will flourish as employers clamor for their services at ever-higher wages. But if this happy outcome does not come to pass, as the current evidence suggests, the United States and other market democracies will have to come up with a Plan B.
This week, President Barack Obama offered an apology (of sorts) to Americans who believed him when he repeatedly assured the public that anyone who liked their current health insurance plan could keep it under the Affordable Care Act. In an interview with Chuck Todd of NBC News, the president said, "I am sorry that they are finding themselves in this situation based on assurances they got from me."
Next week's election will be an important one for the future of the GOP. In New Jersey, Republican Gov. Chris Christie is up for re-election, and by all accounts he is set to defeat his Democratic opponent, state Sen. Barbara Buono, by a wide margin. Christie is widely considered a serious candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, and his ability to win support among independents and Democrats in his home state will be a central part of his appeal.
The Obamacare debate is entering a new phase. The problems plaguing the insurance exchanges have raised serious questions about the viability of the president's health reform effort. The Obama administration and its allies insist that the exchanges will soon be up and running, and that they've already been successful. Yet at least some liberals are starting to wonder if the exchange model should be abandoned in favor of a single-payer, Medicare-for-all approach. John Cassidy of the New Yorker, an occasional Obamacare critic from the left, is just one of many liberals who've touted the virtues of a single-payer system, and it is easy to imagine future Democratic presidential candidates doing the same. Conservatives, meanwhile, have tended to characterize the failure of the exchanges as a reflection of the limits of government. Patrick Ruffini, a well-regarded conservative strategist, captured the views of many on the right in a short piece titled "How Healthcare.gov Discredits Liberalism." We're nowhere near a consensus on whether the kludgy mess that is Obamacare ought to be replaced. But serious questions are being raised across the political spectrum.
A few days ago, an older and wiser friend of mine and I had a lengthy conversation about divorce, that most cheerful of subjects. He noted that one of the surest signs of a marriage in trouble was that both parties were convinced that they had been forgiving of various betrayals and accommodating of various foibles, yet this generosity hadn't been reciprocated. Naturally, this brought to mind the increasingly strained relationship between Tea Party conservatives and Republican regulars. What better way to describe how Ted Cruz must feel about John Boehner, the sellout, and how John Boehner must feel about Ted Cruz, the zealot?
Next week, the new state-based health insurance exchanges established under the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, will be open for business. Or rather — some of them will be sort of open for business, as the exchanges have been plagued by a series of technical glitches and delays.
On Tuesday afternoon, a small but influential slice of the inside-the-Beltway conservative intelligentsia gathered at the American Enterprise Institute, a D.C.-based conservative think tank, to hear Utah Sen. Mike Lee present his new tax reform plan, the "Family Fairness and Opportunity Tax Reform Act." Though it is unlikely that the bill will become law, it represents genuinely new thinking about how Republicans ought to approach domestic policy. And as such, it has the potential to break the GOP out of its defensive crouch.
Right now, it looks as though Larry Summers has the inside track to be named the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. This is despite the fact that many on the left, from Democratic lawmakers like Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley to influential activists like Mike Konczal of the Roosevelt Institute, are deeply skeptical of Summers, owing to his ties to the financial sector, his impolitic reputation, and the fear that he might be more concerned about the dormant threat of inflation than the very real scourge of long-term unemployment. The discouraging job growth numbers released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics earlier today can't help his case. But Summers, the former chairman of President Obama's National Economic Council, seems to have the trust and respect of his former boss, and that may be all he really needs to secure the most powerful economic policy-making job in the country.
ISTANBUL — It's rare that I enjoy being stuck in traffic, but the slow ride from Istanbul's main international airport to its central business district is a feast for the eyes. New shopping malls, apartment blocks, and office parks seem to stretch out in every direction, up and down the city's formidable hills. But this week has served as a reminder that Turkey's prosperity rests on a fragile foundation.
The house in which I grew up was built in 1913. It was part of a building boom in New York City's outer boroughs fueled by the rising incomes, and rising aspirations, of erstwhile tenement-dwellers. As jam-packed Manhattan neighborhoods like the Lower East Side emptied out, once-bucolic stretches of Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx were transformed with dizzying speed.