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Stanley White

Recovery rally takes bitcoin back above $40k; Treasury proposal weighs on gains

May 20 2021

LONDON/TOKYO/NEW YORK A rebound in bitcoin held strong on Thursday, even as the U.S. Treasury Department called for new rules that would require large cryptocurrency transfers to be reported to the Internal Revenue Service and the Federal Reserve flagged the risks cryptocurrencies posed to financial stability.

GLOBAL MARKETS-Taper talk troubles stocks, bitcoin attempts to rebound

May 20 2021

SINGAPORE/TOKYO, May 20 Stock markets struggled for traction on Thursday after a jittery session on Wall Street where cryptocurrencies crashed and a hint of tapering talk from the U.S. Federal Reserve drove selling in the bond market while lifting the safe-haven dollar.

Bitcoin struggles for footing on worries over China, leverage

May 19 2021

TOKYO, May 20 Bitcoin and other digital assets languished in Asia on Thursday, recovering marginally from four-month lows but weighed down by concerns over tighter regulation in China and unease over massive leveraged positions in the cryptocurrency world.

FOREX-Dollar holds fast before Fed, bitcoin crumbles on China risk

May 19 2021

* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E * Fed minutes loom on horizon * Traders also look to CPI data from Britain and Canada * Monetary policy outlook holds key to dollar's direction * China's policy moves unsettle cryptocurrencies By Stanley White TOKYO, May 19 The dollar steadied against major currencies on Wednesday as traders awaited U.S. Federal Reserve minutes, but bitcoin tumbled after China banned its financial institutions from offering services related to cryptocurrency assets. The minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting due later on Wednesday are expected to confirm that policymakers think a rate hike is still in the distance. Investors will also be scrutinising consumer price data in Britain and Canada later in the trading day to determine how quickly major economies may be forced to rein in their accommodative monetary policy, which holds the key to the dollar's trend in the medium term. "I'm most concerned about the relative strength of inflation," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. "The recent release of U.S. consumer prices printed quite high. If Britain and Canada remain below that level, it suggests the pace of normalisation in the United States will be faster. Dollar selling may not last much longer." Against the Canadian dollar, the greenback traded at C$1.2076, close to its weakest since May 2015. The British pound bought $1.4187, which was near its strongest level since late February. The euro was steady at $1.2231. The dollar was little changed at 108.96 yen and 0.8974 Swiss franc. Data last week showing U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% in April from a year earlier was the fastest increase in more than a decade, raising fears the Fed will have to start raising interest rates sooner than expected. Fed policymakers have said the spike is temporary and reiterated that they expect rates to remain low, which has taken some steam out of the dollar, though not all are convinced by the Fed's line. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was quoted at 89.732, close to the lowest since late February. Expectations for policy tightening in Canada and the gradual lifting of coronavirus restrictions in Britain have lifted both countries' currencies, but any suggestion of benign inflation could help the greenback recoup some of its losses. In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin tumbled below the closely-watched $40,000-mark to a three-month low of $39,000. Rival digital currency ether dropped by more than 13% to $2,900, which is a two-week low. Regulatory risk has emerged as a negative factor after China banned its financial institutions from offering cryptocurrency registration, trading, clearing, and settlement in a blow to investors who were betting that digital assets will gain mainstream status. Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars eased slightly as the Antipodeans struggled to break through heavy technical resistance, but sentiment remains positive due to rising commodity prices, some traders said. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 0455 GMT Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.2231 $1.2224 +0.06% +0.11% +1.2236 +1.2218 Dollar/Yen 108.9650 108.9050 +0.02% +5.46% +109.0700 +108.8900 Euro/Yen <EURJPY=EB 133.28 133.10 +0.14% +5.01% +133.3200 +133.0500 S> Dollar/Swiss 0.8974 0.8977 -0.03% +1.44% +0.8985 +0.8972 Sterling/Dollar 1.4187 1.4189 -0.01% +3.84% +1.4199 +1.4180 Dollar/Canadian 1.2073 1.2061 +0.11% -5.18% +1.2080 +1.2062 Aussie/Dollar 0.7784 0.7791 -0.08% +1.19% +0.7797 +0.7779 NZ 0.7231 0.7239 -0.10% +0.71% +0.7246 +0.7226 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Kim Coghill)

FOREX-Dollar steadies before Fed minutes, bitcoin stumbles

May 18 2021

* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E * Fed minutes loom on horizon * Traders also look to CPI data from Britain and Canada * Monetary policy outlook holds key to dollar's direction * China's policy moves unsettle cryptocurrencies By Stanley White TOKYO, May 19 The U.S. dollar steadied but remained near a six-year low against its Canadian counterpart and nursed losses against European currencies as expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain low undermined the greenback. The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's most recent meeting due later on Wednesday are expected to confirm that policymakers think a rate hike is still in the distance. Investors will also be scrutinising consumer price data in Britain and Canada later in the trading day to determine how quickly major economies will be forced to rein in their accommodative monetary policy, which holds the key to the dollar's trend in the medium term. "I'm most concerned about the relative strength of inflation," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. "The recent release of U.S. consumer prices printed quite high. If Britain and Canada remain below that level, it suggests the pace of normalisation in the United States will be faster. Dollar selling may not last much longer." Against the Canadian dollar, the greenback traded at C$1.2076, close to its weakest since May 2015. The British pound bought $1.4182, which was near its strongest level since late February. The euro was steady at $1.2219. The dollar was little changed at 109.02 yen and 0.8982 Swiss franc. Data last week showing U.S. consumer prices rose 4.2% in April from a year earlier was the fastest increase in more than a decade, which stunned investors. Fed policymakers have said this is a temporary spike and reiterated that they expect interest rates to remain low, which has taken some steam out of the dollar, but not all are convinced by the Fed's persuasion. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was quoted at 89.833, close to the lowest since late February. Expectations for policy tightening in Canada and the gradual lifting of coronavirus restrictions in Britain have lifted both countries' currencies, but any suggestion of benign inflation could help the greenback recoup some of its losses. Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars eased slightly as the Antipodeans struggled to break through heavy technical resistance, but sentiment remains positive due to rising commodity prices, some traders said. In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin fell to a three-month low of $40,548, and rival digital currency ether dropped 5.7% to $3,197 amid market jitters after China banned its financial institutions and payment companies from providing services related to cryptocurrency transactions. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 0209 GMT Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.2219 $1.2224 -0.04% +0.01% +1.2232 +1.2218 Dollar/Yen 109.0200 108.9050 +0.12% +5.56% +109.0700 +108.8900 Euro/Yen <EURJPY=EB 133.20 133.10 +0.08% +4.96% +133.3200 +133.0500 S> Dollar/Swiss 0.8982 0.8977 +0.01% +1.48% +0.8983 +0.8972 Sterling/Dollar 1.4182 1.4189 -0.04% +3.82% +1.4199 +1.4181 Dollar/Canadian 1.2076 1.2061 +0.16% -5.14% +1.2080 +1.2062 Aussie/Dollar 0.7781 0.7791 -0.12% +1.15% +0.7797 +0.7779 NZ 0.7231 0.7239 -0.12% +0.69% +0.7246 +0.7231 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

Dollar left wounded, Fed minutes and inflation in focus

May 18 2021

TOKYO The U.S. dollar teetered near a six-year low against its Canadian counterpart and nursed losses against European currencies as expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain low undermined the greenback.

FOREX-Dollar drops as yield support fades amid expectations of low U.S. rates

May 18 2021

* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E * Fed speakers expected to repeat that rates will remain low * Dollar loses ground as Treasury yields stall * Yen falls on crosses as economic concerns grow By Stanley White TOKYO, May 18 The dollar plumbed a six-year trough against the Canadian dollar and teetered near multi-month lows versus European currencies on Tuesday, as Treasury yields stalled amid renewed expectations the United States will not hike interest rates anytime soon. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan on Monday reiterated his view that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, fuelling a further decline in bets that inflationary pressure could force the Fed to act sooner. This week a host of Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak, and the U.S. central bank will also release minutes from its most recent meeting, which may give indications about where monetary policy is headed this year. However, the growing consensus is that the Fed will tolerate what it sees as a temporary acceleration in inflation, which will keep the dollar lower against most major currencies. "The most important point is where are yields headed," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities. "Yields are capped, reflecting expectations that U.S. monetary policy will remain easy," Ishikawa added. "This places the dollar under downward pressure." The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 1.6454%, extending a pullback from a five-week high reached last week. The dollar traded at $1.2164 against the euro, close to the weakest since Feb. 26. The British pound rose to $1.4177 to reach its strongest since late February. Sterling has been buoyed recently as investors cheer the gradual lifting of strict coronavirus restrictions. The Canadian dollar advanced to a six-year high of C$1.2030 against the greenback, aided by a rise in oil prices. The dollar held steady at 109.19 yen. The currency pair has been locked in a narrow range amid worries about Japan's slow pace of vaccinations and weakness in the greenback. The yen fell against the British pound and the Antipodean currencies after data showed Japan's economy contracted more than expected due to coronavirus infections. Some investors were already scaling back expectations for a Fed rate hike this year, and Kaplan's comments gave traders even more incentive to sell the dollar. The onshore yuan edged up to 6.4279 per dollar, not far from an almost three-year high reached last week. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also rose against their U.S. counterpart. In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 3.85% to $45,272 but was still close to a three-month low amid doubts about Tesla's boss Elon Musk's enthusiasm for the digital asset. Rival digital currency ether rose 6.95% to $3,509, steading from a two-week low reached on Monday. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 0458 GMT Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.2164 $1.2152 +0.10% -0.44% +1.2169 +1.2153 Dollar/Yen 109.1950 109.1750 +0.02% +5.72% +109.2750 +109.1300 Euro/Yen <EURJPY=EB 132.83 132.73 +0.08% +4.66% +132.8800 +132.7000 S> Dollar/Swiss 0.9018 0.9033 -0.13% +1.96% +0.9035 +0.9017 Sterling/Dollar 1.4170 1.4139 +0.22% +3.72% +1.4177 +1.4135 Dollar/Canadian 1.2043 1.2068 -0.20% -5.42% +1.2071 +1.2030 Aussie/Dollar 0.7786 0.7770 +0.23% +1.23% +0.7797 +0.7765 NZ 0.7234 0.7216 +0.28% +0.77% +0.7242 +0.7211 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

FOREX-Dollar falls on expectations U.S. rates will stay low for longer

May 17 2021

* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E * Fed speakers expected to repeat that rates will remain low * Dollar loses ground as Treasury yields stall * Yen falls on crosses as economic concerns grow By Stanley White TOKYO, May 18 The dollar plumbed a six-year trough against the Canadian dollar and teetered near multi-month lows versus European currencies amid renewed expectations that the United States will not hike interest rates anytime soon. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan on Monday reiterated his view that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, fuelling a further decline in bets that inflationary pressure could force the Fed to act sooner. This week a host of Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak, and the U.S. central bank will also release minutes from its most recent meeting, which may give indications about where monetary policy is headed this year. However, the growing consensus is that the Fed will tolerate what it sees as a temporary acceleration in inflation, which will keep the dollar lower against most major currencies. "The most important point is where are yields headed," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities. "Yields are capped, reflecting expectations that U.S. monetary policy will remain easy," Ishikawa added. "This places the dollar under downward pressure." Against the euro, the dollar traded at $1.2167, close to the weakest since Feb. 26. The British pound rose to $1.4174 to reach its strongest since late February. Sterling has been buoyed recently as investors cheer the gradual lifting of strict coronavirus restrictions. The Canadian dollar advanced to a six-year high of C$1.2045 against the greenback, aided by a rise in oil prices. The dollar held steady at 109.16 yen. The currency pair has been locked in a narrow range amid worries about Japan's slow pace of vaccinations and weakness in the greenback. The yen fell against the British pound and the Antipodean currencies after data showed Japan's economy contracted more than expected due to coronavirus infections. Some investors were already scaling back expectations for a Fed rate hike this year, and Kaplan's comments gave traders even more incentive to sell the dollar. The onshore yuan edged up to 6.4332 per dollar, not far from an almost three-year high reached last week. The Australian and New Zealand dollars also rose against their U.S. counterpart. In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 2.91% to $44,860 but was still close to a three-month low amid doubts about Tesla's boss Elon Musk's enthusiasm for the digital asset. Rival digital currency ether edged up to $3,390, steading from a two-week low reached on Monday. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 0200 GMT Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.2167 $1.2152 +0.12% -0.43% +1.2168 +1.2153 Dollar/Yen 109.1600 109.1750 +0.00% +5.70% +109.2750 +109.1300 Euro/Yen <EURJPY=EB 132.82 132.73 +0.07% +4.65% +132.8400 +132.7000 S> Dollar/Swiss 0.9020 0.9033 -0.11% +1.99% +0.9035 +0.9023 Sterling/Dollar 1.4170 1.4139 +0.23% +3.73% +1.4173 +1.4135 Dollar/Canadian 1.2046 1.2068 -0.17% -5.39% +1.2071 +1.2045 Aussie/Dollar 0.7788 0.7770 +0.23% +1.23% +0.7793 +0.7765 NZ 0.7236 0.7216 +0.28% +0.77% +0.7237 +0.7211 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Reporting by Stanley White; Editing by Himani Sarkar)

FOREX-Dollar under pressure as yield support fades

May 17 2021

* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E * Fed speakers expected to repeat that rates will remain low * Dollar loses ground as Treasury yields stall * Yen falls on crosses as economic concerns grow By Stanley White TOKYO, May 18 The dollar teetered near multi-month lows against European currencies on Tuesday as Treasury yields stall due to renewed expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain low for an extended period. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan on Monday reiterated his view that he does not expect interest rates to rise until next year, causing a further decline in bets that inflationary pressure could force the Fed to act sooner. This week a host of Fed policymakers are scheduled to speak, and the U.S. central bank will also release minutes from its most recent meeting, which will give traders a lot of hints about where monetary policy is headed this year. However, the growing consensus is that the Fed will tolerate what it sees as a temporary acceleration in inflation, which will keep the dollar lower against most major currencies. "The most important point is where are yields headed," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG Securities. "Yields are capped, reflecting expectations that U.S. monetary policy will remain easy. This places the dollar under downward pressure." Against the euro, the dollar traded at $1.2157, close to the weakest since Feb. 26. The British pound bought $1.4151, near its strongest since late February. Sterling has been buoyed recently as investors cheer the gradual lifting of strict coronavirus restrictions on economic activity. The Canadian dollar traded near a six-year high against the greenback, supported by a rise in oil prices. The dollar held steady at 109.22 yen. The currency pair has been locked in a narrow range as worries about Japan's slow pace of coronavirus vaccinations offset weakness in the greenback. The yen fell against the British pound and the Antipodean currencies after data showed Japan's economy contracted more than expected due to coronavirus infections.. Some investors were already scaling back expectations for a Fed rate hike this year, and Kaplan's comments gave traders even more incentive to sell the dollar. However, there are some exceptions. The dollar has managed to gain against emerging Asian currencies due to concern about a spike in coronavirus infections in Taiwan and Singapore. The Australian and New Zealand dollars have also stopped rising against the greenback recently due an inability to break through technical resistance levels, some traders say. In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin rose 2.19% to $44,505 but was still close to a three-month low amid doubts about Tesla's boss Elon Musk's enthusiasm for the digital asset. Rival digital currency ether edged up to $3,361, steading from a two-week low reached on Monday. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 0024 GMT Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.2157 $1.2152 +0.05% -0.50% +1.2159 +1.2153 Dollar/Yen 109.2250 109.1750 +0.00% +5.70% +109.2750 +109.1750 Euro/Yen <EURJPY=EB 132.78 132.73 +0.04% +4.62% +132.8200 +132.7000 S> Dollar/Swiss 0.9031 0.9033 +0.02% +2.11% +0.9035 +0.9031 Sterling/Dollar 1.4151 1.4139 +0.10% +3.59% +1.4157 +1.4135 Dollar/Canadian 1.2057 1.2068 -0.10% -5.32% +1.2071 +1.2055 Aussie/Dollar 0.7776 0.7770 +0.10% +1.10% +0.7779 +0.7765 NZ 0.7222 0.7216 +0.11% +0.60% +0.7225 +0.7211 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Reporting by Stanley White; editing by Richard Pullin)

FOREX-Dollar gains on Asia's virus worry; cryptocurrencies slide on Musk tweet

May 17 2021

* Cautious mood in Asia as Singapore, Taiwan see outbreaks * Risk currencies slip, but dollar still faces broad pressure * Fed minutes in focus * Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E By Tom Westbrook and Stanley White SINGAPORE/TOKYO, May 17 The U.S. dollar was supported on Monday amid renewed worries about coronavirus restrictions in Asia, but investors are heavily positioned for it to fall while the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps rates low. Bitcoin skidded to a three-month low after Tesla Inc boss Elon Musk suggested at the weekend that the car maker is considering selling or may have already sold some of its holdings in the cryptocurrency. Easing commodity prices and fresh virus outbreaks in Singapore and Taiwan - where COVID-19 had been contained - helped modest dollar gains of 0.3% against the Australian dollar and 0.4% versus the New Zealand dollar. The greenback was little changed against the euro and the yen, but it remained close to testing major support levels, which if broken could see a return to a downtrend that pressed it lower through April. A dollar bounce that followed higher-than-expected inflation data last week has also faded as traders figure the U.S. Federal Reserve will keep rates low. The dollar last traded at $1.2130 per euro and has support around $1.2179. The dollar index is, likewise, at 90.397, just above key support at 89.677 and 89.206. It bought 109.37 yen and traded at $0.7756 per Aussie and $0.7219 per kiwi . Fed minutes, from an April meeting that predated the data surprise on inflation last week, are due on Wednesday and are the next market focus for clues on the central bank's thinking. "We expect the minutes ... to reiterate that policymakers consider the pick up in inflation to be transitory," said Kim Mundy, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "The upshot is that we do not expect the (Fed) to consider tapering its asset purchases soon," she said. "The dollar is expected to resume its downtrend this week after last week's CPI-inspired boost." Cryptocurrencies traded under pressure after another weekend bouncing around following a tweet from Tesla's Musk suggesting the company is possibly selling its bitcoin holdings. Bitcoin last traded down 7.13% at $43,133. It earlier fell to $42,185, the lowest since Feb. 8. Ether fell to a two-week low of $3,123. Speculators increased their bets against the dollar last week, mostly by adding to bets on the euro and to a lesser extent sterling as Britain and Europe head toward recovery. Sterling was perched near a two-and-a-half-month high on Monday, at $1.4086, as Britain reopens its economy after a four-month COVID lockdown. Things are travelling in the opposite direction in Asia where some early leaders in taming the pandemic are now dealing with new outbreaks. Singapore and Taiwan have both tightened curbs as cases rise, which weighed on the Singapore dollar, while the Taiwan dollar fell to a three-week low on Monday. The onshore yuan was little changed at 6.4380 per dollar after a mixed round of economic data showed China's industrial output had slowed and retail sales missed forecasts last month. ======================================================= Currency bid prices at 0509 GMT Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.2130 $1.2147 -0.13% -0.72% +1.2151 +1.2129 Dollar/Yen 109.3750 109.3350 +0.02% +5.88% +109.4950 +109.3000 Euro/Yen <EURJPY=EB 132.67 132.78 -0.08% +4.53% +132.9400 +132.6300 S> Dollar/Swiss 0.9024 0.9012 +0.14% +2.01% +0.9028 +0.9015 Sterling/Dollar 1.4086 1.4098 -0.07% +3.11% +1.4104 +1.4081 Dollar/Canadian 1.2119 1.2104 +0.13% -4.83% +1.2136 +1.2106 Aussie/Dollar 0.7756 0.7781 -0.33% +0.81% +0.7787 +0.7748 NZ 0.7219 0.7250 -0.44% +0.52% +0.7249 +0.7216 Dollar/Dollar All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ (Reporting by Tom Westbrook and Stanley White; Editing by Gerry Doyle and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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