LIVE MARKETS Nasdaq Composite: Wily coyote looking more like a bear

  • U.S. equity index futures red; Nasdaq 100 off ~0.8%
  • Euro STOXX 600 index slides ~2%
  • Dollar, crude, bitcoin lower; gold edges up
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~1.77%

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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: WILY COYOTE LOOKING MORE LIKE A BEAR (0900 EST/1400 GMT)

The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) ended Thursday down nearly 12% from its November-19 record close. And although its just the early days of 2022, the IXIC's 9.5% decline so far puts it on track for its biggest yearly drop since 2008.

Of note, on a daily basis, the IXIC ended Thursday at its most oversold since the February/March 2020 panic read more :

IXIC01212021

Therefore, the Composite appears ripe for a bounce at any time. However, traders will be assessing the structure and character of any rally, since sudden strength could just prove to be a reaction to help alleviate the oversold condition, in what will still prove to be a continuing trend to the downside.

For example, in the August/December 2018, and February/March 2020 collapses, the deepest oversold readings on a daily basis occurred in the earlier stages of the declines. It was not until the IXIC hit new lows, accompanied by a bullish momentum convergence, that true bottoms were then found.

Meanwhile, a number of Nasdaq internal measures are especially weak again. The Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index has fallen to 16.1% - click here: read more . The Nasdaq McClellan Summation (McSum) has plunged to -5,276 - click here: read more . The Nasdaq weekly Advance/Decline (A/D) ratio is at 0.79 read more . These measures have yet to stabilize, but have the potential to reach washed-out levels at any time.

That said, when looking at the Composite's yearly Bollinger Band (BB) chart, the downside still appears to beckon. The IXIC still needs to fall to least 13,645 to tick back below the upper yearly band. Click here: read more

At that level, the Composite would be down 15% from its record-high close. And if its nine-year streak of yearly closes above the upper-yearly BB is to end, 2022 will likely see some venerable roadrunners, like tech (.SPLRCT), chips (.SOX), and FANGs (.NYFANG), prove to be road-kill.

(Terence Gabriel)

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Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own

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