- U.S. equity index futures little changed ahead of FOMC statement
- U.S. Nov Retail Sales MM, ex-autos < ests; NY Fed Mnfg > est
- Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.4%
- Dollar, gold ~flat; crude, bitcoin fall
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~1.44%
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE'S INTERNAL STRUGGLE INTENSIFIES (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
The Nasdaq Composite ended Tuesday down around 5% from its November 19 record close.
Meanwhile, one measure of internal strength, the Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index, has managed to turn up from its early December low of 12.5%. That trough was its lowest reading since early April 2020, and may have signaled washed-out levels. In a constructive turn, the measure has now risen to 21.3%, and is above its 10-day moving average (DMA), which is at 18.2%. read more
However, another measure of internal strength, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation (McSum), which is based on advancing and declining issues, paints a different picture. It is continuing to sink:
The McSum ended Tuesday at -4,505, which is its lowest level since early April 2020. This measure has now fallen 20 of the past 21 trading days and is still trending down below its 10-DMA.
For the McSum, there is still substantial downside risk before it reaches its December 2018/March 2020 lows in the -5,425/-6,207 area. A decline to the late 2008 trough/support line from 2012 would call for the -6,896/-7,000 area. The support line from 2012 contained the 2018 and 2020 weakness.
Thus, the Nasdaq appears to be at a critical juncture as it now remains to be seen if the McSum can stabilize and turn up with the NH/NL index, or if the NH/NL index will roll over again and join the McSum in a further collapse. read more
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