From winter to spring: shifting dynamics in U.S. wheat production

Author: Emily Balsamo, CME Group

AT A GLANCE

In the last full crop year, hard red spring wheat production in northern North America exceeded that of all winter wheat varieties combined.
With the addition of physically delivered Hard Red Spring Wheat futures and options to the CME Group Agricultural portfolio, market participants can now trade all major varieties of North American wheat on a single exchange.

Hard red spring (HRS) wheat is the overwhelmingly dominant form of spring wheat grown in the United States and the dominant form of all wheat grown in Canada.

Both Canadian and U.S. share of spring wheat have seen an upward trajectory over the past 50 years and a steady trend of growth over the past decade. In the most recent marketing year, spring wheat comprised 75% of all Canadian wheat production and nearly 26% of all U.S. wheat production.

The context revolves around spring wheat production in the U.S. and Canada, as depicted in the graph showing data from 1984 to 2025. The graph illustrates the production levels of U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and Canadian spring wheat in million bushels, alongside the percentage of spring wheat relative to total North American wheat production. The trend line indicates a gradual increase in the percentage of spring wheat over the years. The accompanying image of wheat fields complements the data, emphasizing the agricultural focus of the context.

Comparing Spring and Winter Wheat

While spring wheat has long comprised the majority of wheat produced in Canada, spring wheat in the United States is growing in relative prevalence. On an upward trend over the past decades as a share of national wheat, almost all of the spring wheat grown in the United States is classified as hard red spring.

The context involves the production and trends of various classes of wheat in the U.S. and Canada over time. The images provide visual data on wheat production, highlighting different classes such as durum, hard red spring, hard red winter, soft red winter, and white wheat. The charts show trends from 1984/85 to 2024/25, illustrating fluctuations and changes in production levels. Additionally, they display the percentage of spring wheat production relative to total North American and U.S. wheat production, with a focus on U.S. hard red spring (HRS) wheat and its contribution over the years. These visualizations help in understanding the dynamics and shifts in wheat production across different periods.

While winter wheat, which underlies both Chicago Wheat and Kansas City Wheat futures, is planted in the fall and harvested in late spring, spring wheat is planted in spring and harvested in late summer. Spring wheat is planted in regions with winters too severe to sustain the overwintering necessary for winter wheat.

Quality Considerations

The crisp, dry air in the U.S. Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies makes spring wheat kernels shriveled, resulting in a higher protein-to-carbohydrate ratio. Due to its perceived high quality, U.S. Wheat Associates calls hard red spring wheat “the aristocrat of wheat.”

Kansas City Wheat futures are underlied by hard red winter (HRW) wheat, which is used for all-purpose flour; while Chicago Wheat futures are generally delivered against soft red winter (SRW) wheat, commonly used for pastries and finer baked goods.

The context revolves around the production trends and statistics of spring wheat in the U.S. and Canada. The images provided include graphs that depict the production volumes and percentages of different wheat classes over several decades. Specifically, they highlight the production of U.S. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat, its share of total U.S. wheat production, and its comparison with Canadian spring wheat production. The data shows fluctuations in production volumes and the percentage of spring wheat relative to total North American wheat production, with a general upward trend in the percentage over time. The images are sourced from USDA and Statistics Canada, indicating a focus on agricultural data analysis.

The relative quality of major wheat classes is reflected by their relative prices, with HRS generally fetching the most per bushel due to its high protein content. However, supply-side factors can upend typical relationships. In the 2006/2007 crop year, production of HRW wheat, the prevalent class of wheat grown nationally, fell nearly 27% from the year prior. Hard red spring production declined as well, though not nearly as much, and the spread in average on-farm price between the two classes of wheat inverted from a 32-cent premium in 2005/2006 to a 5-cent discount in 2006/2007.

The context provided through the images revolves around the production and pricing trends of wheat in the U.S., focusing on different classes of wheat over several decades. The first image is a scenic view of a wheat field, while subsequent graphs illustrate various data points:

Spring Wheat in the U.S.: This graph shows the production in million bushels and the percentage of spring wheat relative to all U.S. wheat from 1986/87 to 2024/25, indicating fluctuations and a general trend.

Annual Production of Major Wheat Classes: This chart compares the production levels of different wheat classes (Durum, Hard Red Spring, Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and White) from 1984/85 to 2024/25, showing trends and shifts in production volumes.

Average Annual On-Farm Wheat Prices: This graph presents the average price per bushel for various wheat classes over the years, along with the price spread between Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat, highlighting price volatility and trends.

U.S. and Canadian Spring Wheat: This chart compares U.S. and Canadian spring wheat production and its percentage of total North American wheat from 1984/85 to 2024/25, showing trends and market shares.

Overall, the context is an analysis of wheat production and market trends in North America, focusing on historical data and future projections.

Domestic Supply at the Fore

Spring and winter wheat in the United States generally do not see geographic overlap, with spring wheat, and thus HRS, concentrated in the Northern Plains region of North Dakota and Minnesota. North Dakota’s Red River Valley, in particular, is a spring wheat powerhouse.

The context involves analyzing data related to wheat production and pricing in the U.S. and Canada. The provided charts and images depict various aspects of wheat production, including the annual production of hard red spring (HRS) wheat in Minnesota and North Dakota, the overall production of spring wheat in the U.S., and the production of major wheat classes in the U.S. over several decades. Additionally, the data includes the percentage of spring wheat in total North American wheat production and the average annual on-farm wheat prices in the U.S. These charts highlight trends, fluctuations, and comparisons in wheat production and pricing from the mid-1980s to projections for 2024/25.

Domestic supply of HRS is overwhelmingly accounted for by domestic production, with imports comprising less than 10% of domestic total supply in the latest crop year, according to the USDA. In recent years, the majority of all wheat imported to the United States from Canada flowed through the U.S. Customs District of Pembina, North Dakota, with a smaller but significant portion passing through Duluth, Minnesota. In 2024, almost 44 million bushels of Canadian wheat flowed through the Pembina, North Dakota customs district. The physical delivery of Hard Red Spring Wheat futures in North Dakota and Minnesota sits at the nexus of both domestic production and Canadian importation.

Whether you want to hedge the risk or express a view behind your favorite chocolate and cream sandwich cookie (SRW), fluffy white loaf (HRW) or your local artisanal bagel (HRS), CME Group’s pantry of wheat futures and options has got you covered.

Learn more about CME Group